Championship · Regular Season - 39 March 21, 2026 13:30 Pride Park, Derby

Derby

#23 · 7 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Birmingham

#7 · 20 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Derby

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 27%, Birmingham 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Birmingham. In 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Birmingham.

Match statistics

6

Shots on target

0

1.11

Actual xG

0.06

51%

Possession

49%

6

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

50.14%

Derby ←

27.54%

X

22.32%

Birmingham

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 50.14% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Derby

1.48

1.11

-0.37

Birmingham

0.95

0.06

-0.89

Derby dominated by xG (1.11 vs 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5