Championship · Regular Season - 39 March 21, 2026 13:30 Pride Park, Derby

Derby

#4 · 0 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Birmingham

#1 · 0 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Derby

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 27%, Birmingham 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Birmingham. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Birmingham.

Match statistics

6

Shots on target

0

1.11

Actual xG

0.06

51%

Possession

49%

6

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

50.14%

Derby ←

27.54%

X

22.32%

Birmingham

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 50.14% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Derby

1.48

1.11

-0.37

Birmingham

0.95

0.06

-0.89

Derby dominated by xG (1.11 vs 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Birmingham	0	0
2	Blackburn	0	0
3	Bolton	0	0
4	Derby	0	0
5	Middlesbrough	0	0
6	Portsmouth	0	0
7	West Ham	0	0
8	Bristol City	0	0
9	Burnley	0	0
10	Cardiff	0	0
11	Charlton	0	0
12	Norwich	0	0
13	Preston	0	0
14	QPR	0	0
15	Sheffield Utd	0	0
16	Stoke City	0	0
17	Watford	0	0
18	West Brom	0	0
19	Wolves	0	0
20	Millwall	0	0
21	Swansea	0	0
22	Lincoln	0	0
23	Wrexham	0	0
24	Southampton	0	0