Championship · Regular Season - 39 March 21, 2026 13:30 Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby

#22 · 4 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Birmingham

#8 · 10 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Derby

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 27%, Birmingham 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Birmingham. In 2 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Birmingham.

Match statistics

6

Shots on target

0

1.11

Actual xG

0.06

51%

Possession

49%

6

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

50.14%

Derby ←

27.54%

X

22.32%

Birmingham

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 50.14% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Derby

1.48

1.11

-0.37

Birmingham

0.95

0.06

-0.89

Derby dominated by xG (1.11 vs 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	West Ham	7	14
2	Swansea	7	14
3	West Brom	7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	13
5	QPR	7	12
6	Charlton	7	12
7	Southampton	7	10
8	Birmingham	7	10
9	Stoke City	7	10
10	Bristol City	6	10
11	Norwich	7	9
12	Millwall	6	9
13	Sheffield Utd	6	9
14	Wolves	5	8
15	Blackburn	7	8
16	Lincoln	6	8
17	Watford	7	8
18	Portsmouth	6	7
19	Wrexham	7	7
20	Bolton	7	7
21	Cardiff	7	4
22	Derby	7	4
23	Preston	7	3
24	Burnley	7	3