← Championship
Championship · Regular Season - 43 April 18, 2026 13:30
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Oxford United
#22 · 47 pts
J. Banel (ast. S. Szmodics) 22'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 46% win probability (draw 30%, Oxford United 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Oxford United. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Oxford United.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
0
1.07
Actual xG
0.68
2
Saves
1
67%
Possession
33%
7
Corners
3
14
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Banel · ast. S. Szmodics
22'
D. Ozoh
26'
62'
Jeon Jin-Woo / J. Donley ↕
62'
A. Emakhu / M. Peart-Harris ↕
↕ D. Ozoh / O. Fraulo
70'
↕ D. Sanderson / S. Langas
71'
S. Szmodics
76'
80'
C. Brannagan
84'
M. Harris / Y. E. Konak ↕
↕ J. Banel / M. Johnston
86'
O. Fraulo
87'
D. Murkin
88'
89'
W. Vaulks / B. Spencer ↕
↕ D. Murkin / C. Forsyth
90'+1
↕ S. Szmodics / L. Salvesen
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
46.98%
Derby ←
30.51%
X
22.51%
Oxford
we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 46.98% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.22
1.07
-0.15
Oxford
0.91
0.68
-0.23
Derby dominated by xG (1.07 vs 0.68). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
1
G 7.00
2
D. Murkin 89' D 7.30
5
M. Clarke D 7.90
28
D. Sanderson 71' D 6.70
23
D 7.70
18
D. Ozoh 70' M 6.60
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 7.90
34
J. Banel 1 ⚽ 86' M 8.60
19
S. Szmodics 1 👟 89' M 7.60
25
B. Brereton Diaz M 6.20
9 C. Morris C. Morris F 6.90
Bench
3
C. Forsyth 1' D
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston 11' D 6.70
29
O. Fraulo 20' M 6.60
6
S. Langas 19' D 6.90
Oxford United Oxford United 4-2-3-1
1
G 6.60
15
B. Spencer 89' D 7.20
3
C. Brown D 6.70
6
M. Helik D 6.60
2
S. Long D 6.50
8
C. Brannagan M 6.50
5
Y. E. Konak 84' M 6.90
44
M. Peart-Harris 62' M 6.30
33
J. Donley 62' M 6.30
17
S. Mills M 6.60
27 W. Lankshear W. Lankshear F 6.70
Bench
10
A. Emakhu 28' F 6.60
24
H. ter Avest D
38
J. McDonnell M
9
M. Harris 13' F 6.70
4
W. Vaulks 8' M 6.90
Best on the pitch
J. Banel
M · Derby
8.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 21 pass
M. Clarke
D · Derby
7.90
1 shots · 71 pass
L. Travis
L. Travis
M · Derby
7.90
· 71 pass
D · Derby
7.70
· 55 pass
S. Szmodics
M · Derby
7.60
1 👟
2 shots · 23 pass
D. Murkin
D · Derby
7.30
1 shots · 40 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.00 — — — 35 25% — — —
D. Murkin D 89 7.30 — — 1 40 37% 1 1 —
M. Clarke D 90 7.90 — — 1 71 67% 2 — —
D. Sanderson D 71 6.70 — — — 58 54% — — —
D 90 7.70 — — — 55 43% 1 — —
D. Ozoh M 70 6.60 — — — 62 58% 1 1 —
L. Travis M 90 7.90 — — — 71 62% 5 — —
J. Banel M 86 8.60 1 — 2 21 16% 1 — —
S. Szmodics M 89 7.60 — 1 2 23 21% 2 1 —
B. Brereton Diaz M 90 6.20 — — — 41 34% — — —
C. Morris F 90 6.90 — — 1 23 18% 1 — —
C. Forsyth D 1 — — — — 1 1% — — —
M. Johnston D 11 6.70 — — — 3 1% — — —
O. Fraulo M 20 6.60 — — — 4 2% — 1 —
S. Langas D 19 6.90 — — — 5 4% — — —
Oxford United Oxford United — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.60 — — — 25 14% — — —
B. Spencer D 89 7.20 — — — 27 19% 5 — —
C. Brown D 90 6.70 — — — 33 27% — — —
M. Helik D 90 6.60 — — — 15 10% 1 — —
S. Long D 90 6.50 — — — 16 13% — — —
C. Brannagan M 90 6.50 — — 1 33 21% 1 1 —
Y. E. Konak M 84 6.90 — — 1 15 11% 4 — —
M. Peart-Harris M 62 6.30 — — — 16 11% — — —
J. Donley M 62 6.30 — — 1 10 10% 1 — —
S. Mills M 90 6.60 — — — 17 13% — — —
W. Lankshear F 90 6.70 — — 1 11 10% — — —
A. Emakhu F 28 6.60 — — — 5 4% — — —
M. Harris F 13 6.70 — — 1 5 4% 1 — —
W. Vaulks M 8 6.90 — — — 9 7% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Oxford United?
The final score was Derby 1–0 Oxford United.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Oxford United?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Derby win, 30% to a draw, and 22% to an Oxford United win.