J. Banel
(ast. S. Szmodics)
22'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 46% win probability (draw 30%, Oxford United 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Oxford United. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Oxford United.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
0
1.07
Actual xG
0.68
2
Saves
1
67%
Possession
33%
7
Corners
3
14
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Banel
· ast. S. Szmodics
22'
D. Ozoh
26'
62'
Jeon Jin-Woo
/
J. Donley
62'
A. Emakhu
/
M. Peart-Harris
D. Ozoh
/ O. Fraulo
70'
D. Sanderson
/ S. Langas
71'
S. Szmodics
76'
80'
C. Brannagan
84'
M. Harris
/
Y. E. Konak
J. Banel
/ M. Johnston
86'
O. Fraulo
87'
D. Murkin
88'
89'
W. Vaulks
/
B. Spencer
D. Murkin
/ C. Forsyth
90'+1
S. Szmodics
/ L. Salvesen
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
46.98%
Derby ←
30.51%
X
22.51%
Oxford
we assigned to the actual result (Derby)
46.98%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.22
1.07
-0.15
0.91
0.68
-0.23
Derby dominated by xG (1.07 vs 0.68).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
G
2
D. Murkin
89'
D
5
M. Clarke
D
28
D. Sanderson
71'
D
23
D
18
D. Ozoh
70'
M
27
L. Travis
M
L. Travis
M
34
J. Banel
1 ⚽
86'
M
19
S. Szmodics
1 👟
89'
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
M
9
C. Morris
F
C. Morris
F
Bench
3
C. Forsyth
1'
D
22
M. Johnston
11'
D
M. Johnston
11'
D
29
O. Fraulo
20'
M
6
Sondre Langås
19'
D
Sondre Langås
19'
D
1
G
15
Brodie Spencer
89'
D
Brodie Spencer
89'
D
3
Ciaron Brown
D
Ciaron Brown
D
6
M. Helik
D
2
S. Long
D
8
C. Brannagan
M
5
Y. E. Konak
84'
M
44
M. Peart-Harris
62'
M
33
Jamie Donley
62'
M
Jamie Donley
62'
M
17
S. Mills
M
27
W. Lankshear
F
W. Lankshear
F
Bench
10
A. Emakhu
28'
F
A. Emakhu
28'
F
24
H. ter Avest
D
38
Jamie McDonnell
M
Jamie McDonnell
M
9
M. Harris
13'
F
4
W. Vaulks
8'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Banel
M · Derby
8.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
M. Clarke
D · Derby
7.90
1 shots
· 71 pass
L. Travis
M · Derby
7.90
· 71 pass
D · Derby
7.70
· 55 pass
S. Szmodics
M · Derby
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 23 pass
D. Murkin
D · Derby
7.30
1 shots
· 40 pass
Derby — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| D. Murkin | D | 89 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 37% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Clarke | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 58 | 54% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 55 | 43% | 1 | — | — | |
| D. Ozoh | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 62 | 58% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Travis | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 71 | 62% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Banel | M | 86 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 89 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 23 | 21% | 2 | 1 | — |
| B. Brereton Diaz | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Forsyth | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Sondre Langås | D | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Oxford United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| Brodie Spencer | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | 5 | — | — |
| Ciaron Brown | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | — | — | — |
| M. Helik | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Long | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Brannagan | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. E. Konak | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Peart-Harris | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Jamie Donley | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Mills | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| W. Lankshear | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Emakhu | F | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Harris | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Vaulks | M | 8 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Oxford United?
The final score was Derby 1–0 Oxford United.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Oxford United?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Derby win, 30% to a draw, and 22% to an Oxford United win.