J. Banel
(ast. S. Szmodics)
22'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 46% win probability (draw 30%, Oxford United 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Oxford United. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Oxford United.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
0
1.07
Actual xG
0.68
2
Saves
1
67%
Possession
33%
7
Corners
3
14
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Banel
· ast. S. Szmodics
22'
D. Ozoh
26'
62'
Jeon Jin-Woo
/
J. Donley
62'
A. Emakhu
/
M. Peart-Harris
D. Ozoh
/ O. Fraulo
70'
D. Sanderson
/ S. Langas
71'
S. Szmodics
76'
80'
C. Brannagan
84'
M. Harris
/
Y. E. Konak
J. Banel
/ M. Johnston
86'
O. Fraulo
87'
D. Murkin
88'
89'
W. Vaulks
/
B. Spencer
D. Murkin
/ C. Forsyth
90'+1
S. Szmodics
/ L. Salvesen
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
46.98%
Derby ←
30.51%
X
22.51%
Oxford
we assigned to the actual result (Derby)
46.98%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.22
1.07
-0.15
0.91
0.68
-0.23
Derby dominated by xG (1.07 vs 0.68).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
G
2
D. Murkin
89'
D
5
Matt Clarke
D
Matt Clarke
D
28
D. Sanderson
71'
D
D. Sanderson
71'
D
23
D
18
D. Ozoh
70'
M
D. Ozoh
70'
M
27
L. Travis
M
L. Travis
M
34
J. Banel
1 ⚽
86'
M
19
S. Szmodics
1 👟
89'
M
S. Szmodics
1 👟
89'
M
25
B. Brereton
M
B. Brereton
M
9
C. Morris
F
C. Morris
F
Bench
3
C. Forsyth
1'
D
C. Forsyth
1'
D
22
M. Johnston
11'
D
M. Johnston
11'
D
29
O. Fraulo
20'
M
O. Fraulo
20'
M
6
S. Langås
19'
D
S. Langås
19'
D
1
G
15
B. Spencer
89'
D
B. Spencer
89'
D
3
C. Brown
D
C. Brown
D
6
M. Helik
D
M. Helik
D
2
S. Long
D
S. Long
D
8
C. Brannagan
M
C. Brannagan
M
5
Y. Konak
84'
M
Y. Konak
84'
M
44
M. Peart-Harris
62'
M
M. Peart-Harris
62'
M
33
J. Donley
62'
M
J. Donley
62'
M
17
S. Mills
M
S. Mills
M
27
W. Lankshear
F
W. Lankshear
F
Bench
10
A. Emakhu
28'
F
A. Emakhu
28'
F
24
Hidde ter Avest
D
Hidde ter Avest
D
38
Jamie Carson McDonnell
M
Jamie Carson McDonnell
M
9
M. Harris
13'
F
M. Harris
13'
F
4
W. Vaulks
8'
M
W. Vaulks
8'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Banel
M · Derby
8.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Matt Clarke
D · Derby
7.90
1 shots
· 71 pass
L. Travis
M · Derby
7.90
· 71 pass
D · Derby
7.70
· 55 pass
S. Szmodics
M · Derby
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 23 pass
D. Murkin
D · Derby
7.30
1 shots
· 40 pass
Derby — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| D. Murkin | D | 89 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 37% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matt Clarke | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 67% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 58 | 54% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 55 | 43% | 1 | — | — | |
| D. Ozoh | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 62 | 58% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Travis | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 71 | 62% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Banel | M | 86 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 89 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 23 | 21% | 2 | 1 | — |
| B. Brereton | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Forsyth | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Langås | D | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Oxford United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| B. Spencer | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 19% | 5 | — | — |
| C. Brown | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | — | — | — |
| M. Helik | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Long | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Brannagan | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. Konak | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Peart-Harris | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Donley | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Mills | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| W. Lankshear | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Emakhu | F | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Harris | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Vaulks | M | 8 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Oxford United?
The final score was Derby 1–0 Oxford United.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Oxford United?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Derby win, 30% to a draw, and 22% to an Oxford United win.