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Championship · Regular Season - 46 May 02, 2026 13:30
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Sheffield Utd
#13 · 60 pts
S. Szmodics 5'
62' (ast. P. Bamford) T. Cannon
69' (ast. G. Hamer) S. Peck

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 49% win probability (draw 22%, Sheffield Utd 28%). The final result was Derby 1–2 Sheffield Utd. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sheffield Utd.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
8
1.94
Actual xG
1.66
6
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
4
11
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽S. Szmodics
5'
S. Langas
18'
M. Clarke
26'
45'+2
H. Burrows
54'
J. Tanganga
↕ J. Banel / B. Clark
60'
62'
ast. P. Bamford · T. Cannon⚽
64'
T. Chong / T. Cannon ↕
64'
J. Rothwell / O. Arblaster ↕
64'
K. Hoever / F. Seriki ↕
↕ B. Brereton Diaz / M. Johnston
68'
69'
ast. G. Hamer · S. Peck⚽
72'
D. Ings / G. Hamer ↕
↕ C. Forsyth / O. Fraulo
74'
↕ D. Ozoh / L. Salvesen
75'
85'
J. Riedewald / C. O'Hare ↕
B. Clark
89'
90'+7
T. Chong
S. Szmodics
90'+7
Pre-match prediction
49.54%
Derby
22.4%
X
28.06%
Sheffield ←
we assigned to the actual result (Sheffield Utd) 28.06% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.86
1.94
+0.08
Sheffield
1.46
1.66
+0.2
xG dominance was balanced (1.94 – 1.66). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
1
G 6.90
3
C. Forsyth 74' D 6.20
5
M. Clarke D 6.60
6
S. Langas D 6.20
23
D 6.20
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 7.00
18
D. Ozoh 75' M 6.30
34
J. Banel 60' M 6.70
19
S. Szmodics 1 ⚽ M 7.20
25
B. Brereton Diaz 68' M 6.70
9 C. Morris C. Morris F 6.30
Bench
42
B. Clark 41' M 6.60
28
D. Sanderson D
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston 33' D 6.50
29
O. Fraulo 27' M 6.90
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 4-4-2
17
G 7.00
14
H. Burrows D 6.90
25
M. McGuinness D 7.00
2
J. Tanganga D 6.60
38
Femi Seriki 64' D 7.20
10 C. O'Hare C. O'Hare 85' M 6.90
4
O. Arblaster 64' M 6.60
42
S. Peck 1 ⚽ M 7.90
8 G. Hamer G. Hamer 1 👟 72' M 6.90
45 P. Bamford P. Bamford 1 👟 F 6.30
7
T. Cannon 1 ⚽ 64' F 7.70
Bench
9
D. Ings 29' F 6.20
18
D. Soumare M
44
J. Riedewald 16' M 6.60
48
J. Rothwell 37' M 6.70
12
K. Hoever 37' D 6.60
24
T. Chong 37' M 7.30
Best on the pitch
S. Peck
M · Sheffield
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 61 pass
T. Cannon
F · Sheffield
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 10 pass
T. Chong
M · Sheffield
7.30
1 shots · 10 pass
Femi Seriki
D · Sheffield
7.20
· 17 pass
S. Szmodics
M · Derby
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 29 pass
L. Travis
L. Travis
M · Derby
7.00
· 62 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 101 6.90 — — — 29 14% — — —
C. Forsyth D 74 6.20 — — — 28 19% — — —
M. Clarke D 101 6.60 — — 3 51 38% 1 1 —
S. Langas D 101 6.20 — — 1 27 24% 2 1 —
D 101 6.20 — — 2 30 22% 1 — —
L. Travis M 101 7.00 — — — 62 46% 3 — —
D. Ozoh M 75 6.30 — — — 26 24% 2 — —
J. Banel M 60 6.70 — — — 17 14% 1 — —
S. Szmodics M 101 7.20 1 — 2 29 25% — 1 —
B. Brereton Diaz M 68 6.70 — — — 12 8% — — —
C. Morris F 101 6.30 — — 1 22 14% — — —
B. Clark M 41 6.60 — — — 15 8% — 1 —
M. Johnston D 33 6.50 — — 1 7 6% 1 — —
O. Fraulo M 27 6.90 — — — 8 6% — — —
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 101 7.00 — — — 27 10% — — —
H. Burrows D 101 6.90 — — 1 48 43% — 1 —
M. McGuinness D 101 7.00 — — — 25 24% 2 — —
J. Tanganga D 101 6.60 — — — 20 18% 1 1 —
Femi Seriki D 64 7.20 — — — 17 13% — — —
C. O'Hare M 85 6.90 — — 1 22 21% 3 — —
O. Arblaster M 64 6.60 — — — 36 32% — — —
S. Peck M 101 7.90 1 — 2 61 52% 3 — —
G. Hamer M 72 6.90 — 1 2 22 19% 2 — —
P. Bamford F 101 6.30 — 1 1 33 26% — — —
T. Cannon F 64 7.70 1 — 3 10 5% — — —
D. Ings F 29 6.20 — — 2 13 8% — — —
J. Riedewald M 16 6.60 — — — 3 3% — — —
J. Rothwell M 37 6.70 — — — 7 6% 1 — —
K. Hoever D 37 6.60 — — — 20 16% — — —
T. Chong M 37 7.30 — — 1 10 9% 1 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
The final score was Derby 1–2 Sheffield Utd.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Derby win, 22% to a draw, and 28% to an Sheffield Utd win.