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Championship · Regular Season - 41 April 06, 2026 16:00
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Stoke City
#17 · 55 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Derby
J. Banel (ast. C. Morris) 54'
C. Morris (ast. B. Clark) 89'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 24%, Stoke City 25%). The final result was Derby 2–0 Stoke City. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
0
2.47
Actual xG
0.30
0
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
3
11
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
3'
S. Agina
35'
J. Bae / T. Rigo ↕
↕ P. Agyemang / J. Banel
41'
46'
S. Gallagher / L. Cisse ↕
⚽J. Banel · ast. C. Morris
54'
63'
L. Baker / S. N'Zonzi ↕
63'
M. Manhoef / S. Agina ↕
L. Travis
69'
78'
M. Smit / J. Bae ↕
↕ D. Ozoh / O. Fraulo
80'
J. Banel
85'
⚽C. Morris · ast. B. Clark
89'
↕ B. Clark / C. Allen
90'+2
↕ C. Morris / L. Salvesen
90'+2
↕ B. Brereton Diaz / M. Johnston
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
50.68%
Derby ←
24.27%
X
25.05%
Stoke
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 50.68% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.75
2.47
+0.72
Stoke
1.42
0.30
-1.12
Derby dominated by xG (2.47 vs 0.30). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 6.70
2
D. Murkin D 7.30
5
M. Clarke D 7.00
28
D. Sanderson D 6.50
23
D 7.20
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 6.90
18
D. Ozoh 80' M 7.50
7 P. Agyemang P. Agyemang 41' M 6.50
42
B. Clark 1 👟 M 7.60
25
B. Brereton Diaz M 7.20
9 C. Morris C. Morris 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.30
Bench
3
C. Forsyth D
34
J. Banel 1 ⚽ 52' M 7.30
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston D
29
O. Fraulo 13' M 6.60
6
S. Langas D
Stoke City Stoke City 3-4-2-1
31
G 7.00
18
D 7.30
26
A. Phillips D 7.00
50
S. Agina 63' D 6.30
17
E. Bocat M 6.90
12
M 7.20
15
S. N'Zonzi 63' M 6.30
7 S. Thomas S. Thomas M 6.90
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F 6.30
19
T. Rigo 35' F 6.50
29
L. Cisse 45' F 6.70
Bench
3
A. Cresswell D
23
B. Gibson D
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson M
10
J. Bae 43' M 6.60
8
L. Baker 30' M 6.50
42
M. Manhoef 30' F 6.70
20
S. Gallagher 48' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
C. Morris
C. Morris
F · Derby
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 18 pass
B. Clark
M · Derby
7.60
1 👟
1 shots · 35 pass
D. Ozoh
M · Derby
7.50
· 38 pass
D. Murkin
D · Derby
7.30
1 shots · 37 pass
J. Banel
M · Derby
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
D · Stoke
7.30
· 48 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 93 6.70 — — — 24 16% — — —
D. Murkin D 93 7.30 — — 1 37 27% 3 — —
M. Clarke D 93 7.00 — — — 53 40% — — —
D. Sanderson D 93 6.50 — — — 31 26% — — —
D 93 7.20 — — 1 38 31% — — —
L. Travis M 93 6.90 — — — 43 36% 2 1 —
D. Ozoh M 80 7.50 — — — 38 34% 3 — —
P. Agyemang M 41 6.50 — — — 10 5% — — —
B. Clark M 92 7.60 — 1 1 35 24% 1 — —
B. Brereton Diaz M 93 7.20 — — 2 23 22% 1 — —
C. Morris F 93 8.30 1 1 3 18 14% 1 — —
J. Banel M 52 7.30 1 — 2 14 12% — 1 —
O. Fraulo M 13 6.60 — — — 6 5% — — —
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 93 7.00 — — — 41 26% — — —
D 93 7.30 — — — 48 41% 5 — —
A. Phillips D 93 7.00 — — — 31 24% 3 — —
S. Agina D 63 6.30 — — — 21 11% 2 1 —
E. Bocat M 93 6.90 — — 1 35 30% 2 — —
M 93 7.20 — — 2 34 29% 2 — —
S. N'Zonzi M 63 6.30 — — — 19 16% 1 — —
S. Thomas M 93 6.90 — — — 31 20% 2 — —
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F 93 6.30 — — — 21 17% 2 — —
T. Rigo F 35 6.50 — — — 11 10% — — —
L. Cisse F 45 6.70 — — — 8 4% — — —
J. Bae M 43 6.60 — — — 12 8% 2 — —
L. Baker M 30 6.50 — — — 21 18% — — —
M. Manhoef F 30 6.70 — — 2 9 5% 2 — —
S. Gallagher F 48 6.50 — — 1 3 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Stoke City?
The final score was Derby 2–0 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Derby win, 24% to a draw, and 25% to an Stoke City win.