✓Model correct — prediction Derby
J. Banel
(ast. C. Morris)
54'
C. Morris
(ast. B. Clark)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 24%, Stoke City 25%). The final result was Derby 2–0 Stoke City. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
0
2.47
Actual xG
0.30
0
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
3
11
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
3'
S. Agina
35'
J. Bae
/
T. Rigo
P. Agyemang
/ J. Banel
41'
46'
S. Gallagher
/
L. Cisse
⚽J. Banel
· ast. C. Morris
54'
63'
L. Baker
/
S. N'Zonzi
63'
M. Manhoef
/
S. Agina
L. Travis
69'
78'
M. Smit
/
J. Bae
D. Ozoh
/ O. Fraulo
80'
J. Banel
85'
⚽C. Morris
· ast. B. Clark
89'
B. Clark
/ C. Allen
90'+2
C. Morris
/ L. Salvesen
90'+2
B. Brereton Diaz
/ M. Johnston
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
50.68%
Derby ←
24.27%
X
25.05%
Stoke
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Derby)
50.68%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.75
2.47
+0.72
1.42
0.30
-1.12
Derby dominated by xG (2.47 vs 0.30).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
G
2
D. Murkin
D
5
Matt Clarke
D
Matt Clarke
D
28
Dion Sanderson
D
Dion Sanderson
D
23
D
27
Lewis Travis
M
Lewis Travis
M
18
D. Ozoh
80'
M
7
P. Agyemang
41'
M
P. Agyemang
41'
M
42
Bobby Clark
1 👟
M
Bobby Clark
1 👟
M
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
M
Ben Brereton Díaz
M
9
Carlton Morris
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Carlton Morris
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
3
Craig Forsyth
D
Craig Forsyth
D
34
J. Banel
1 ⚽
52'
M
22
Max Johnston
D
Max Johnston
D
29
Oscar Fraulo
13'
M
Oscar Fraulo
13'
M
6
Sondre Langås
D
Sondre Langås
D
31
G
18
D
26
A. Phillips
D
50
Sydney Agina
63'
D
17
Eric Bocat
M
Eric Bocat
M
12
M
15
S. N'Zonzi
63'
M
7
S. Thomas
M
S. Thomas
M
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
F
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
F
19
Tomáš Rigo
35'
F
Tomáš Rigo
35'
F
29
Lamine Cissé
45'
F
Lamine Cissé
45'
F
Bench
3
A. Cresswell
D
10
Bae Jun-Ho
43'
M
Bae Jun-Ho
43'
M
23
Ben Gibson
D
Ben Gibson
D
4
Ben Pearson
M
Ben Pearson
M
8
L. Baker
30'
M
42
Million Manhoef
30'
F
Million Manhoef
30'
F
20
Sam Gallagher
48'
F
Sam Gallagher
48'
F
Best on the pitch
Carlton Morris
F · Derby
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 18 pass
Bobby Clark
M · Derby
7.60
1 👟
1 shots
· 35 pass
D. Ozoh
M · Derby
7.50
· 38 pass
D. Murkin
D · Derby
7.30
1 shots
· 37 pass
J. Banel
M · Derby
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 14 pass
D · Stoke
7.30
· 48 pass
Derby — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| D. Murkin | D | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Matt Clarke | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 53 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Dion Sanderson | D | 93 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| D | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 31% | — | — | — | |
| Lewis Travis | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 80 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| P. Agyemang | M | 41 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Bobby Clark | M | 92 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 35 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | M | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlton Morris | F | 93 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Banel | M | 52 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 14 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| Oscar Fraulo | M | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Stoke City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 41 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| D | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 48 | 41% | 5 | — | — | |
| A. Phillips | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 3 | — | — |
| Sydney Agina | D | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Eric Bocat | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| M | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 29% | 2 | — | — | |
| S. N'Zonzi | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Thomas | M | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | F | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Tomáš Rigo | F | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Lamine Cissé | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Bae Jun-Ho | M | 43 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Baker | M | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Million Manhoef | F | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Sam Gallagher | F | 48 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Stoke City?
The final score was Derby 2–0 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Derby win, 24% to a draw, and 25% to an Stoke City win.