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Championship · Regular Season - 41 April 06, 2026 16:00 Pride Park Stadium, Derby
Derby
#22 · 5 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Stoke City
#7 · 13 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Derby
J. Banel (ast. C. Morris) 54'
C. Morris (ast. B. Clark) 89'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 24%, Stoke City 25%). The final result was Derby 2–0 Stoke City. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
0
2.47
Actual xG
0.30
0
Saves
1
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
3
11
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
3'
S. Agina
35'
J. Bae / T. Rigo ↕
↕ P. Agyemang / J. Banel
41'
46'
S. Gallagher / L. Cisse ↕
⚽J. Banel · ast. C. Morris
54'
63'
L. Baker / S. N'Zonzi ↕
63'
M. Manhoef / S. Agina ↕
L. Travis
69'
78'
M. Smit / J. Bae ↕
↕ D. Ozoh / O. Fraulo
80'
J. Banel
85'
⚽C. Morris · ast. B. Clark
89'
↕ B. Clark / C. Allen
90'+2
↕ C. Morris / L. Salvesen
90'+2
↕ B. Brereton Diaz / M. Johnston
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
50.68%
Derby ←
24.27%
X
25.05%
Stoke
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 50.68% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.75
2.47
+0.72
Stoke
1.42
0.30
-1.12
Derby dominated by xG (2.47 vs 0.30). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Swansea Swansea 8 17
2 West Ham West Ham 8 15
3 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 8 15
4 Wolves Wolves 7 14
5 West Brom West Brom 8 14
6 QPR QPR 8 13
7 Stoke City Stoke City 8 13
8 Bristol City Bristol City 8 13
9 Charlton Charlton 8 12
10 Birmingham Birmingham 8 11
11 Millwall Millwall 8 11
12 Lincoln Lincoln 8 11
13 Southampton Southampton 8 10
14 Wrexham Wrexham 8 10
15 Bolton Bolton 8 10
16 Blackburn Blackburn 8 9
17 Norwich Norwich 8 9
18 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 8 9
19 Portsmouth Portsmouth 7 8
20 Watford Watford 8 8
21 Cardiff Cardiff 8 7
22 Derby Derby 8 5
23 Preston Preston 8 4
24 Burnley Burnley 8 4
Lineups
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 6.70
2
D. Murkin D 7.30
5 Matt Clarke Matt Clarke D 7.00
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 6.50
23
D 7.20
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 6.90
18 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh 80' M 7.50
7 P. Agyemang P. Agyemang 41' M 6.50
42 B. Clark B. Clark 1 👟 M 7.60
25 Ben Brereton Díaz Ben Brereton Díaz M 7.20
9 C. Morris C. Morris 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.30
Bench
3 C. Forsyth C. Forsyth D
34
J. Banel 1 ⚽ 52' M 7.30
22 M. Johnston M. Johnston D
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo 13' M 6.60
6 S. Langås S. Langås D
Stoke City Stoke City 3-4-2-1
31
G 7.00
18
D 7.30
26 A. Phillips A. Phillips D 7.00
50
Sydney Agina 63' D 6.30
17 E. Bocat E. Bocat M 6.90
12
M 7.20
15 S. Nzonzi S. Nzonzi 63' M 6.30
7 S. Thomas S. Thomas M 6.90
21 Jesurun Rak-Sakyi Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F 6.30
19 T. Rigo T. Rigo 35' F 6.50
29 L. Cissé L. Cissé 45' F 6.70
Bench
3
A. Cresswell D
10 Bae Jun-Ho Bae Jun-Ho 43' M 6.60
23 B. Gibson B. Gibson D
4 B. Pearson B. Pearson M
8
L. Baker 30' M 6.50
42 M. Manhoef M. Manhoef 30' F 6.70
20 S. Gallagher S. Gallagher 48' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
C. Morris
C. Morris
F · Derby
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 18 pass
B. Clark
B. Clark
M · Derby
7.60
1 👟
1 shots · 35 pass
D. Ozoh
D. Ozoh
M · Derby
7.50
· 38 pass
D. Murkin
D · Derby
7.30
1 shots · 37 pass
J. Banel
M · Derby
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
D · Stoke
7.30
· 48 pass
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 93 6.70 — — — 24 16% — — —
D. Murkin D 93 7.30 — — 1 37 27% 3 — —
Matt Clarke D 93 7.00 — — — 53 40% — — —
D. Sanderson D 93 6.50 — — — 31 26% — — —
D 93 7.20 — — 1 38 31% — — —
L. Travis M 93 6.90 — — — 43 36% 2 1 —
D. Ozoh M 80 7.50 — — — 38 34% 3 — —
P. Agyemang M 41 6.50 — — — 10 5% — — —
B. Clark M 92 7.60 — 1 1 35 24% 1 — —
Ben Brereton Díaz M 93 7.20 — — 2 23 22% 1 — —
C. Morris F 93 8.30 1 1 3 18 14% 1 — —
J. Banel M 52 7.30 1 — 2 14 12% — 1 —
O. Fraulo M 13 6.60 — — — 6 5% — — —
Stoke City Stoke City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 93 7.00 — — — 41 26% — — —
D 93 7.30 — — — 48 41% 5 — —
A. Phillips D 93 7.00 — — — 31 24% 3 — —
Sydney Agina D 63 6.30 — — — 21 11% 2 1 —
E. Bocat M 93 6.90 — — 1 35 30% 2 — —
M 93 7.20 — — 2 34 29% 2 — —
S. Nzonzi M 63 6.30 — — — 19 16% 1 — —
S. Thomas M 93 6.90 — — — 31 20% 2 — —
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi F 93 6.30 — — — 21 17% 2 — —
T. Rigo F 35 6.50 — — — 11 10% — — —
L. Cissé F 45 6.70 — — — 8 4% — — —
Bae Jun-Ho M 43 6.60 — — — 12 8% 2 — —
L. Baker M 30 6.50 — — — 21 18% — — —
M. Manhoef F 30 6.70 — — 2 9 5% 2 — —
S. Gallagher F 48 6.50 — — 1 3 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Stoke City?
The final score was Derby 2–0 Stoke City.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Stoke City?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Derby win, 24% to a draw, and 25% to an Stoke City win.