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Estoril - Benfica

Primeira Liga May 16, 2026 21:30
Estoril
#9 · 39 pts
vs
Benfica
#3 · 77 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 15.2°C 💨 20 km/h · Estoril
⚡ Pre-match analysis
15.93%
Win
Estoril
21.5%
Draw
62.57%
Win
Benfica
0.68
Expected xG
1.75
Model prediction
Benfica
62.57%
Probability
55.9%
1X2 accuracy · 34 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Benfica a 62% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Estoril. Expected goals are 0.7 for Estoril and 1.8 for Benfica (total 2.4), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 15.4% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Benfica.

Score Matrix
↕ Estoril Benfica →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.8% 15.4% 13.5% 7.9% 3.5% 1.2%
1 6.0% 10.5% 9.2% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8%
2 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
3 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —
Recent form
Estoril Estoril
D Alverca 1–1
D SC Braga 1–1
L Famalicao 0–1
L Moreirense 1–0
L FC Porto 1–3
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 20%
Benfica Benfica
D SC Braga 2–2
D Famalicao 2–2
W Moreirense 4–1
W Sporting CP 1–2
W Nacional 2–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 23%
Playing profile
Estoril Estoril
Attack
24
Defence
61
Form
34
Benfica Benfica
Attack
60
Defence
69
Form
65
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Estoril
0
Draw
1
Benfica
L 3 Jan 2026 Primeira Liga 1–3
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Estoril vs Benfica?
The model gives Estoril a 15% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 62% for an Benfica win.
How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Benfica?
Expected goals: Estoril 0.7, Benfica 1.8 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Estoril vs Benfica?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.4%.