← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 23:30
Estoril
#9 · 39 pts
1 – 3
Final score
FC Porto
#1 · 85 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
Y. Begraoui (ast. Pizzi) 78'
14' (ast. G. Veiga) Pepe
(og) 32' Xeka
72' (ast. A. Costa) V. Froholdt

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 59% win probability (draw 20%, Estoril 19%). The final result was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
17
3
Shots on target
5
0.39
Actual xG
2.69
3
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
1
Corners
8
16
Tackles
19
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
14'
ast. G. Veiga · Pepe⚽
24'
Jordan Holsgrove
30'
32'
(og) Xeka⚽
48'
João Carvalho
51'
51'
Oskar Pietuszewski
60'
B. Sainz / O. Pietuszewski ↕
↕ Xeka / R. Guitane
63'
70'
F. Moura / Zaidu ↕
70'
T. Moffi / D. Gul ↕
70'
R. Mora / G. Veiga ↕
↕ A. Lacximicant / A. Marques
71'
↕ P. Amaral / P. Carvalho
71'
72'
ast. A. Costa · V. Froholdt⚽
↕ J. Holsgrove / Pizzi
77'
↕ Jandro / N. Lominadze
77'
⚽Y. Begraoui · ast. Pizzi
78'
Ricard Sánchez
82'
83'
S. Fofana / Pepê ↕
Pre-match prediction
19.88%
Estoril
20.56%
X
59.56%
FC ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 59.56% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estoril
1.05
0.39
-0.66
FC
2.08
2.69
+0.61
FC Porto dominated by xG (2.69 vs 0.39). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
Estoril Estoril 4-3-1-2
1
G 6.90
24 Pedro Amaral Pedro Amaral 71' D 6.60
25 Felix Bacher Felix Bacher D 6.90
5 Antef Tsoungui Antef Tsoungui D 6.90
2 Ricard Sánchez Ricard Sánchez D 6.20
8 Xeka Xeka 1 ⚽ 63' M 6.00
10 J. Holsgrove J. Holsgrove 77' M 6.20
6
Jandro 77' M 6.50
12 João Carvalho João Carvalho M 6.20
19 André Lacximicant André Lacximicant 71' F 6.60
14 Y. Begraoui Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
4 Ferro Ferro D
22 Pedro Carvalho Pedro Carvalho 19' D 6.30
70 Peixinho Peixinho F
21 Pizzi Pizzi 1 👟 13' M 7.00
99 R. Guitane R. Guitane 27' M 6.50
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 6.90
12
Zaidu 70' D 7.70
4 Jakub Kiwior Jakub Kiwior D 6.90
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 7.20
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 1 👟 D 7.70
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 1 👟 70' M 7.50
22 A. Varela A. Varela M 6.60
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt 1 ⚽ M 7.70
77 Oskar Pietuszewski Oskar Pietuszewski 60' F 7.20
27 Deniz Gül Deniz Gül 70' F 6.20
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.90
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 30' F 6.60
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura 20' D 6.70
13 Pablo Rosario Pablo Rosario M
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 20' M 6.90
42 Seko Fofana Seko Fofana 14' M 6.70
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi 20' F 6.30
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D
Best on the pitch
Victor Mow Froholdt
Victor Mow Froholdt
M · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 22 pass
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
7.70
1 👟
2 shots · 34 pass
Zaidu
D · FC
7.70
· 36 pass
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
7.50
1 👟
1 shots · 30 pass
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
Oskar Pietuszewski
Oskar Pietuszewski
F · FC
7.20
1 shots · 9 pass
Estoril Estoril — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.90 — — — 39 13% — — —
Pedro Amaral D 71 6.60 — — — 26 20% 3 — —
Felix Bacher D 90 6.90 — — — 43 38% 2 — —
Antef Tsoungui D 90 6.90 — — — 33 24% 2 — —
Ricard Sánchez D 90 6.20 — — 2 43 33% 1 1 —
Xeka M 63 6.00 1 — — 36 28% 2 — —
J. Holsgrove M 77 6.20 — — — 64 51% — 1 —
Jandro M 77 6.50 — — — 37 35% 1 — —
João Carvalho M 90 6.20 — — 1 39 34% 1 1 —
André Lacximicant F 71 6.60 — — 2 10 9% 1 — —
Y. Begraoui F 90 7.30 1 — 1 24 21% 1 — —
Pedro Carvalho D 19 6.30 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Pizzi M 13 7.00 — 1 — 21 20% — — —
R. Guitane M 27 6.50 — — 1 21 17% 1 — —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 6.90 — — — 27 18% — — —
Zaidu D 70 7.70 — — — 36 32% 3 — —
Jakub Kiwior D 90 6.90 — — — 43 35% 3 — —
J. Bednarek D 90 7.20 — — — 42 33% 1 — —
Alberto Baio D 90 7.70 — 1 2 34 26% 2 — —
Gabri Veiga M 70 7.50 — 1 1 30 24% 3 — —
A. Varela M 90 6.60 — — 1 42 34% 2 — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 90 7.70 1 — 3 22 20% 1 — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 60 7.20 — — 1 9 6% 1 1 —
Deniz Gül F 70 6.20 — — 2 10 4% — — —
Pepê Aquino F 83 6.90 1 — 2 25 17% — — —
Borja Sainz F 30 6.60 — — 3 14 11% — — —
Francisco Moura D 20 6.70 — — — 10 6% 2 — —
Rodrigo Mora M 20 6.90 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
Seko Fofana M 14 6.70 — — — 10 9% — — —
Terem Moffi F 20 6.30 — — 1 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estoril vs FC Porto?
The final score was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Estoril vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 19% probability to a Estoril win, 20% to a draw, and 59% to an FC Porto win.