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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 21:30 Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Estoril
#11 · 1 pts
1 – 3
Final score
FC Porto
#1 · 3 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
Y. Begraoui (ast. Pizzi) 78'
14' (ast. G. Veiga) Pepe
(og) 32' Xeka
72' (ast. A. Costa) V. Froholdt
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 59% win probability (draw 20%, Estoril 19%). The final result was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
17
3
Shots on target
5
0.39
Actual xG
2.69
3
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
1
Corners
8
16
Tackles
19
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
14'
ast. G. Veiga · Pepe⚽
24'
Jordan Holsgrove
30'
32'
(og) Xeka⚽
48'
João Carvalho
51'
51'
Oskar Pietuszewski
60'
B. Sainz / O. Pietuszewski ↕
↕ Xeka / R. Guitane
63'
70'
F. Moura / Zaidu ↕
70'
T. Moffi / D. Gul ↕
70'
R. Mora / G. Veiga ↕
↕ A. Lacximicant / A. Marques
71'
↕ P. Amaral / P. Carvalho
71'
72'
ast. A. Costa · V. Froholdt⚽
↕ J. Holsgrove / Pizzi
77'
↕ Jandro / N. Lominadze
77'
⚽Y. Begraoui · ast. Pizzi
78'
Ricard Sánchez
82'
83'
S. Fofana / Pepê ↕
Pre-match prediction
19.88%
Estoril
20.56%
X
59.56%
FC ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 59.56% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estoril
1.05
0.39
-0.66
FC
2.08
2.69
+0.61
FC Porto dominated by xG (2.69 vs 0.39). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 1 3
2 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 1 3
3 Maritimo Maritimo 1 3
4 Arouca Arouca 1 3
5 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1 1
6 SC Braga SC Braga 1 1
7 Nacional Nacional 1 1
8 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 1 1
9 Famalicao Famalicao 1 1
10 Estrela Estrela 1 1
11 Estoril Estoril 1 1
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1 1
13 Moreirense Moreirense 1 1
14 Benfica Benfica 1 1
15 Vitória SC Vitória SC 1 0
16 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1 0
17 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1 0
18 Alverca Alverca 1 0
Lineups
Estoril Estoril 4-3-1-2
1
G 6.90
24 Pedro Amaral Pedro Amaral 71' D 6.60
25 Felix Bacher Felix Bacher D 6.90
5 Antef Tsoungui Antef Tsoungui D 6.90
2 Ricard Sánchez Ricard Sánchez D 6.20
8 Xeka Xeka 1 ⚽ 63' M 6.00
10 J. Holsgrove J. Holsgrove 77' M 6.20
6 Jandro Orellana Jandro Orellana 77' M 6.50
12 João Carvalho João Carvalho M 6.20
19 André Lacximicant André Lacximicant 71' F 6.60
14 Y. Begraoui Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
4 Ferro Ferro D
22 Pedro Carvalho Pedro Carvalho 19' D 6.30
70 Peixinho Peixinho F
21 Pizzi Pizzi 1 👟 13' M 7.00
99 Rafik Guitane Rafik Guitane 27' M 6.50
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 6.90
12 Zaidu Sanusi Zaidu Sanusi 70' D 7.70
4 Jakub Kiwior Jakub Kiwior D 6.90
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 7.20
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 1 👟 D 7.70
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 1 👟 70' M 7.50
22 A. Varela A. Varela M 6.60
8 Victor Froholdt Victor Froholdt 1 ⚽ M 7.70
77
Oskar Pietuszewski 60' F 7.20
27 Deniz Gül Deniz Gül 70' F 6.20
11 Pepê Pepê 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.90
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 30' F 6.60
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura 20' D 6.70
13 Pablo Rosario Pablo Rosario M
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 20' M 6.90
42 Seko Fofana Seko Fofana 14' M 6.70
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi 20' F 6.30
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D
Best on the pitch
Victor Froholdt
Victor Froholdt
M · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 22 pass
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
7.70
1 👟
2 shots · 34 pass
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi
D · FC
7.70
· 36 pass
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
7.50
1 👟
1 shots · 30 pass
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
Oskar Pietuszewski
F · FC
7.20
1 shots · 9 pass
Estoril Estoril — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.90 — — — 39 13% — — —
Pedro Amaral D 71 6.60 — — — 26 20% 3 — —
Felix Bacher D 90 6.90 — — — 43 38% 2 — —
Antef Tsoungui D 90 6.90 — — — 33 24% 2 — —
Ricard Sánchez D 90 6.20 — — 2 43 33% 1 1 —
Xeka M 63 6.00 1 — — 36 28% 2 — —
J. Holsgrove M 77 6.20 — — — 64 51% — 1 —
Jandro Orellana M 77 6.50 — — — 37 35% 1 — —
João Carvalho M 90 6.20 — — 1 39 34% 1 1 —
André Lacximicant F 71 6.60 — — 2 10 9% 1 — —
Y. Begraoui F 90 7.30 1 — 1 24 21% 1 — —
Pedro Carvalho D 19 6.30 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Pizzi M 13 7.00 — 1 — 21 20% — — —
Rafik Guitane M 27 6.50 — — 1 21 17% 1 — —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 6.90 — — — 27 18% — — —
Zaidu Sanusi D 70 7.70 — — — 36 32% 3 — —
Jakub Kiwior D 90 6.90 — — — 43 35% 3 — —
J. Bednarek D 90 7.20 — — — 42 33% 1 — —
Alberto Baio D 90 7.70 — 1 2 34 26% 2 — —
Gabri Veiga M 70 7.50 — 1 1 30 24% 3 — —
A. Varela M 90 6.60 — — 1 42 34% 2 — —
Victor Froholdt M 90 7.70 1 — 3 22 20% 1 — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 60 7.20 — — 1 9 6% 1 1 —
Deniz Gül F 70 6.20 — — 2 10 4% — — —
Pepê F 83 6.90 1 — 2 25 17% — — —
Borja Sainz F 30 6.60 — — 3 14 11% — — —
Francisco Moura D 20 6.70 — — — 10 6% 2 — —
Rodrigo Mora M 20 6.90 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
Seko Fofana M 14 6.70 — — — 10 9% — — —
Terem Moffi F 20 6.30 — — 1 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estoril vs FC Porto?
The final score was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Estoril vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 19% probability to a Estoril win, 20% to a draw, and 59% to an FC Porto win.