Skip to main content
← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 21:30 Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Estoril
#18 · 2 pts
1 – 3
Final score
FC Porto
#1 · 21 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
Y. Begraoui (ast. Pizzi) 78'
14' (ast. G. Veiga) Pepe
(og) 32' Xeka
72' (ast. A. Costa) V. Froholdt
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 59% win probability (draw 20%, Estoril 19%). The final result was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
17
3
Shots on target
5
0.39
Actual xG
2.69
3
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
1
Corners
8
16
Tackles
19
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
14'
ast. G. Veiga · Pepe⚽
24'
Jordan Holsgrove
30'
32'
(og) Xeka⚽
48'
João Carvalho
51'
51'
Oskar Pietuszewski
60'
B. Sainz / O. Pietuszewski ↕
↕ Xeka / R. Guitane
63'
70'
F. Moura / Zaidu ↕
70'
T. Moffi / D. Gul ↕
70'
R. Mora / G. Veiga ↕
↕ A. Lacximicant / A. Marques
71'
↕ P. Amaral / P. Carvalho
71'
72'
ast. A. Costa · V. Froholdt⚽
↕ J. Holsgrove / Pizzi
77'
↕ Jandro / N. Lominadze
77'
⚽Y. Begraoui · ast. Pizzi
78'
Ricard Sánchez
82'
83'
S. Fofana / Pepê ↕
Pre-match prediction
19.88%
Estoril
20.56%
X
59.56%
FC ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 59.56% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estoril
1.05
0.39
-0.66
FC
2.08
2.69
+0.61
FC Porto dominated by xG (2.69 vs 0.39). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 7 21
2 Benfica Benfica 7 16
3 Sporting CP Sporting CP 7 15
4 Santa Clara Santa Clara 7 15
5 Arouca Arouca 7 11
6 SC Braga SC Braga 6 11
7 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 7 11
8 Estrela Estrela 7 10
9 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 6 8
10 Alverca Alverca 7 8
11 Maritimo Maritimo 7 8
12 Moreirense Moreirense 7 8
13 Famalicao Famalicao 7 7
14 Vitória SC Vitória SC 7 5
15 Nacional Nacional 7 4
16 Rio Ave Rio Ave 7 4
17 Casa Pia Casa Pia 7 4
18 Estoril Estoril 7 2
Lineups
Estoril Estoril 4-3-1-2
1
G 6.90
24 Pedro Amaral Pedro Amaral 71' D 6.60
25 F. Bacher F. Bacher D 6.90
5 A. Tsoungui A. Tsoungui D 6.90
2 Ricard Sánchez Ricard Sánchez D 6.20
8 Xeka Xeka 1 ⚽ 63' M 6.00
10 J. Holsgrove J. Holsgrove 77' M 6.20
6 Jandro Orellana Jandro Orellana 77' M 6.50
12 João Carvalho João Carvalho M 6.20
19 André Lacximicant André Lacximicant 71' F 6.60
14 Y. Begraoui Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
4 Ferro Ferro D
22 Pedro Carvalho Pedro Carvalho 19' D 6.30
70 Peixinho Peixinho F
21 Pizzi Pizzi 1 👟 13' M 7.00
99 R. Guitane R. Guitane 27' M 6.50
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 6.90
12 Z. Sanusi Z. Sanusi 70' D 7.70
4 J. Kiwior J. Kiwior D 6.90
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 7.20
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 1 👟 D 7.70
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 1 👟 70' M 7.50
22 A. Varela A. Varela M 6.60
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt 1 ⚽ M 7.70
77 O. Pietuszewski O. Pietuszewski 60' F 7.20
27 D. Gül D. Gül 70' F 6.20
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.90
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 30' F 6.60
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura 20' D 6.70
13 P. Rosario P. Rosario M
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 20' M 6.90
42 S. Fofana S. Fofana 14' M 6.70
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D
29 T. Moffi T. Moffi 20' F 6.30
Best on the pitch
Victor Mow Froholdt
Victor Mow Froholdt
M · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 22 pass
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
7.70
1 👟
2 shots · 34 pass
Z. Sanusi
Z. Sanusi
D · FC
7.70
· 36 pass
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
7.50
1 👟
1 shots · 30 pass
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
O. Pietuszewski
O. Pietuszewski
F · FC
7.20
1 shots · 9 pass
Estoril Estoril — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.90 — — — 39 13% — — —
Pedro Amaral D 71 6.60 — — — 26 20% 3 — —
F. Bacher D 90 6.90 — — — 43 38% 2 — —
A. Tsoungui D 90 6.90 — — — 33 24% 2 — —
Ricard Sánchez D 90 6.20 — — 2 43 33% 1 1 —
Xeka M 63 6.00 1 — — 36 28% 2 — —
J. Holsgrove M 77 6.20 — — — 64 51% — 1 —
Jandro Orellana M 77 6.50 — — — 37 35% 1 — —
João Carvalho M 90 6.20 — — 1 39 34% 1 1 —
André Lacximicant F 71 6.60 — — 2 10 9% 1 — —
Y. Begraoui F 90 7.30 1 — 1 24 21% 1 — —
Pedro Carvalho D 19 6.30 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Pizzi M 13 7.00 — 1 — 21 20% — — —
R. Guitane M 27 6.50 — — 1 21 17% 1 — —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 6.90 — — — 27 18% — — —
Z. Sanusi D 70 7.70 — — — 36 32% 3 — —
J. Kiwior D 90 6.90 — — — 43 35% 3 — —
J. Bednarek D 90 7.20 — — — 42 33% 1 — —
Alberto Baio D 90 7.70 — 1 2 34 26% 2 — —
Gabri Veiga M 70 7.50 — 1 1 30 24% 3 — —
A. Varela M 90 6.60 — — 1 42 34% 2 — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 90 7.70 1 — 3 22 20% 1 — —
O. Pietuszewski F 60 7.20 — — 1 9 6% 1 1 —
D. Gül F 70 6.20 — — 2 10 4% — — —
Pepê Aquino F 83 6.90 1 — 2 25 17% — — —
Borja Sainz F 30 6.60 — — 3 14 11% — — —
Francisco Moura D 20 6.70 — — — 10 6% 2 — —
Rodrigo Mora M 20 6.90 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
S. Fofana M 14 6.70 — — — 10 9% — — —
T. Moffi F 20 6.30 — — 1 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estoril vs FC Porto?
The final score was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Estoril vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 19% probability to a Estoril win, 20% to a draw, and 59% to an FC Porto win.