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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 21:30 Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Estoril
#10 · 39 pts
1 – 3
Final score
FC Porto
#1 · 88 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
Y. Begraoui (ast. Pizzi) 78'
14' (ast. G. Veiga) Pepe
(og) 32' Xeka
72' (ast. A. Costa) V. Froholdt
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 59% win probability (draw 20%, Estoril 19%). The final result was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto. In 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
17
3
Shots on target
5
0.39
Actual xG
2.69
3
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
1
Corners
8
16
Tackles
19
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
14'
ast. G. Veiga · Pepe⚽
24'
Jordan Holsgrove
30'
32'
(og) Xeka⚽
48'
João Carvalho
51'
51'
Oskar Pietuszewski
60'
B. Sainz / O. Pietuszewski ↕
↕ Xeka / R. Guitane
63'
70'
F. Moura / Zaidu ↕
70'
T. Moffi / D. Gul ↕
70'
R. Mora / G. Veiga ↕
↕ A. Lacximicant / A. Marques
71'
↕ P. Amaral / P. Carvalho
71'
72'
ast. A. Costa · V. Froholdt⚽
↕ J. Holsgrove / Pizzi
77'
↕ Jandro / N. Lominadze
77'
⚽Y. Begraoui · ast. Pizzi
78'
Ricard Sánchez
82'
83'
S. Fofana / Pepê ↕
Pre-match prediction
19.88%
Estoril
20.56%
X
59.56%
FC ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 59.56% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Estoril
1.05
0.39
-0.66
FC
2.08
2.69
+0.61
FC Porto dominated by xG (2.69 vs 0.39). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 34 88
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 34 82
3 Benfica Benfica 34 80
4 SC Braga SC Braga 34 59
5 Famalicao Famalicao 34 56
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 34 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 34 43
8 Arouca Arouca 34 42
9 Guimaraes Guimaraes 34 42
10 Estoril Estoril 34 39
11 Alverca Alverca 34 39
12 Rio Ave Rio Ave 34 36
13 Santa Clara Santa Clara 34 36
14 Nacional Nacional 34 34
15 Estrela Estrela 34 30
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 34 30
17 Tondela Tondela 34 28
18 AVS AVS 34 21
Lineups
Estoril Estoril 4-3-1-2
1
G 6.90
24 Pedro Amaral Pedro Amaral 71' D 6.60
25 Felix Bacher Felix Bacher D 6.90
5 Antef Tsoungui Antef Tsoungui D 6.90
2 Ricard Sánchez Ricard Sánchez D 6.20
8 Xeka Xeka 1 ⚽ 63' M 6.00
10 J. Holsgrove J. Holsgrove 77' M 6.20
6
Jandro 77' M 6.50
12 João Carvalho João Carvalho M 6.20
19 André Lacximicant André Lacximicant 71' F 6.60
14 Y. Begraoui Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
4 Ferro Ferro D
22 Pedro Carvalho Pedro Carvalho 19' D 6.30
70 Peixinho Peixinho F
21 Pizzi Pizzi 1 👟 13' M 7.00
99 R. Guitane R. Guitane 27' M 6.50
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 6.90
12 Zaidu Sanusi Zaidu Sanusi 70' D 7.70
4
Jakub Kiwior D 6.90
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 7.20
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 1 👟 D 7.70
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 1 👟 70' M 7.50
22 A. Varela A. Varela M 6.60
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt 1 ⚽ M 7.70
77
Oskar Pietuszewski 60' F 7.20
27 D. Gül D. Gül 70' F 6.20
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.90
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 30' F 6.60
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura 20' D 6.70
13
Pablo Rosario M
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 20' M 6.90
42 S. Fofana S. Fofana 14' M 6.70
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi 20' F 6.30
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D
Best on the pitch
Victor Mow Froholdt
Victor Mow Froholdt
M · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots · 22 pass
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
7.70
1 👟
2 shots · 34 pass
Zaidu Sanusi
Zaidu Sanusi
D · FC
7.70
· 36 pass
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
7.50
1 👟
1 shots · 30 pass
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 24 pass
Oskar Pietuszewski
F · FC
7.20
1 shots · 9 pass
Estoril Estoril — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.90 — — — 39 13% — — —
Pedro Amaral D 71 6.60 — — — 26 20% 3 — —
Felix Bacher D 90 6.90 — — — 43 38% 2 — —
Antef Tsoungui D 90 6.90 — — — 33 24% 2 — —
Ricard Sánchez D 90 6.20 — — 2 43 33% 1 1 —
Xeka M 63 6.00 1 — — 36 28% 2 — —
J. Holsgrove M 77 6.20 — — — 64 51% — 1 —
Jandro M 77 6.50 — — — 37 35% 1 — —
João Carvalho M 90 6.20 — — 1 39 34% 1 1 —
André Lacximicant F 71 6.60 — — 2 10 9% 1 — —
Y. Begraoui F 90 7.30 1 — 1 24 21% 1 — —
Pedro Carvalho D 19 6.30 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Pizzi M 13 7.00 — 1 — 21 20% — — —
R. Guitane M 27 6.50 — — 1 21 17% 1 — —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 6.90 — — — 27 18% — — —
Zaidu Sanusi D 70 7.70 — — — 36 32% 3 — —
Jakub Kiwior D 90 6.90 — — — 43 35% 3 — —
J. Bednarek D 90 7.20 — — — 42 33% 1 — —
Alberto Baio D 90 7.70 — 1 2 34 26% 2 — —
Gabri Veiga M 70 7.50 — 1 1 30 24% 3 — —
A. Varela M 90 6.60 — — 1 42 34% 2 — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 90 7.70 1 — 3 22 20% 1 — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 60 7.20 — — 1 9 6% 1 1 —
D. Gül F 70 6.20 — — 2 10 4% — — —
Pepê Aquino F 83 6.90 1 — 2 25 17% — — —
Borja Sainz F 30 6.60 — — 3 14 11% — — —
Francisco Moura D 20 6.70 — — — 10 6% 2 — —
Rodrigo Mora M 20 6.90 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
S. Fofana M 14 6.70 — — — 10 9% — — —
Terem Moffi F 20 6.30 — — 1 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Estoril vs FC Porto?
The final score was Estoril 1–3 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Estoril vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 19% probability to a Estoril win, 20% to a draw, and 59% to an FC Porto win.