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Étoile Carouge - Bellinzona

Challenge League May 15, 2026 20:15
Étoile Carouge
#8 · 39 pts
vs
Bellinzona
#10 · 22 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 10.5°C 💨 1 km/h 🌧️ 73% · Carouge
⚡ Pre-match analysis
64.27%
Win
Étoile Carouge
19.31%
Draw
16.42%
Win
Bellinzona
2.35
Expected xG
1.03
Model prediction
Étoile Carouge
64.27%
Probability
78.6%
1X2 accuracy · 14 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Étoile Carouge a 64% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Bellinzona. Expected goals are 2.4 for Étoile Carouge and 1.0 for Bellinzona (total 3.4), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.7% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Étoile Carouge have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Bellinzona.

Score Matrix
↕ Étoile Carouge Bellinzona →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% —
1 8.0% 8.2% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.4% 9.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.3% 7.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 4.3% 4.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% —
5 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% —
Recent form
Étoile Carouge Étoile Carouge
L Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0
L FC Vaduz 1–2
W Yverdon Sport 3–5
L Rapperswil 2–1
W FC WIL 1900 2–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 26%
Bellinzona Bellinzona
L FC WIL 1900 2–4
L Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 5–0
L Rapperswil 2–4
L Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–1
W Stade Nyonnais 4–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 12%
Playing profile
Étoile Carouge Étoile Carouge
Attack
37
Defence
60
Form
44
Bellinzona Bellinzona
Attack
40
Defence
33
Form
28
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
3
Étoile Carouge
0
Draw
0
Bellinzona
W 13 Mar 2026 Challenge League 3–0
W 31 Oct 2025 Challenge League 2–0
W 4 Oct 2025 Challenge League 3–0
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 FC Aarau FC Aarau 35 79
2 FC Vaduz FC Vaduz 35 78
3 Yverdon Sport Yverdon Sport 35 66
4 Neuchatel Xamax FC Neuchatel Xamax FC 35 49
5 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 35 47
6 Rapperswil Rapperswil 35 41
7 FC WIL 1900 FC WIL 1900 35 40
8 Étoile Carouge Étoile Carouge 35 39
9 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 35 28
10 Bellinzona Bellinzona 35 22
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Étoile Carouge vs Bellinzona?
The model gives Étoile Carouge a 64% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 16% for an Bellinzona win.
How many goals are expected in Étoile Carouge vs Bellinzona?
Expected goals: Étoile Carouge 2.4, Bellinzona 1.0 (total 3.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Étoile Carouge vs Bellinzona?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.7%.