Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 17:30

Famalicao

#5 · 53 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Nacional

#14 · 31 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Famalicao

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Famalicao a 61% win probability (draw 23%, Nacional 14%). The final result was Famalicao 1–0 Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Nacional.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

6

1.74

Actual xG

0.43

54%

Possession

46%

7

Corners

6

Pre-match prediction

61.85%

Famalicao ←

23.48%

X

14.67%

Nacional

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Famalicao) 61.85% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Famalicao

1.71

1.74

+0.03

Nacional

0.71

0.43

-0.28

Famalicao dominated by xG (1.74 vs 0.43). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	33	85
2	Sporting CP	33	79
3	Benfica	33	77
4	SC Braga	33	58
5	Famalicao	33	53
6	GIL Vicente	33	50
7	Moreirense	33	42
8	Guimaraes	33	42
9	Estoril	33	39
10	Arouca	33	39
11	Alverca	33	39
12	Santa Clara	33	36
13	Rio Ave	33	35
14	Nacional	33	31
15	Estrela	33	29
16	Casa Pia	33	29
17	Tondela	33	28
18	AVS	33	20