Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 16:30

Famalicao

#5 · 56 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Nacional

#14 · 34 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Famalicao

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Famalicao a 61% win probability (draw 23%, Nacional 14%). The final result was Famalicao 1–0 Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Nacional.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

6

1.74

Actual xG

0.43

54%

Possession

46%

7

Corners

6

Pre-match prediction

61.85%

Famalicao ←

23.48%

X

14.67%

Nacional

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Famalicao) 61.85% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Famalicao

1.71

1.74

+0.03

Nacional

0.71

0.43

-0.28

Famalicao dominated by xG (1.74 vs 0.43). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	88
2	Sporting CP	34	82
3	Benfica	34	80
4	SC Braga	34	59
5	Famalicao	34	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	50
7	Moreirense	34	43
8	Arouca	34	42
9	Guimaraes	34	42
10	Estoril	34	39
11	Alverca	34	39
12	Rio Ave	34	36
13	Santa Clara	34	36
14	Nacional	34	34
15	Estrela	34	30
16	Casa Pia	34	30
17	Tondela	34	28
18	AVS	34	21