Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27 March 21, 2026 16:30

Famalicao

#15 · 3 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Nacional

#13 · 4 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Famalicao

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Famalicao a 61% win probability (draw 23%, Nacional 14%). The final result was Famalicao 1–0 Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Famalicao have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Nacional.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

6

1.74

Actual xG

0.43

54%

Possession

46%

7

Corners

6

Pre-match prediction

61.85%

Famalicao ←

23.48%

X

14.67%

Nacional

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Famalicao) 61.85% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Famalicao

1.71

1.74

+0.03

Nacional

0.71

0.43

-0.28

Famalicao dominated by xG (1.74 vs 0.43). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	18
2	Benfica	5	13
3	Sporting CP	5	13
4	Santa Clara	5	11
5	Arouca	5	10
6	Estrela	5	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	8
8	GIL Vicente	4	7
9	SC Braga	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	7
11	Alverca	6	5
12	Vitória SC	6	4
13	Nacional	6	4
14	Moreirense	5	4
15	Famalicao	5	3
16	Rio Ave	5	3
17	Estoril	5	2
18	Casa Pia	6	1