Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction FC Porto, result Pareggio
William Gomes
(ast. G. Veiga)
11'
(og)
13'
M. Fernandes
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Nottingham Forest 16%). The final result was FC Porto 1–1 Nottingham Forest. In 2 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Nottingham Forest.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
3
8
Shots on target
2
2.16
Actual xG
0.45
2
Saves
7
52%
Possession
48%
5
Corners
2
16
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽William Gomes
· ast. G. Veiga
11'
13'
(og)
M. Fernandes⚽
G. Veiga
15'
M. Fernandes
/ A. Costa
19'
46'
N. Milenkovic
/
Murillo
46'
Igor Jesus
/
C. Wood
B. Sainz
/ Pepe
59'
T. Moffi
/ D. Gul
59'
G. Veiga
/ V. Froholdt
59'
60'
O. Hutchinson
/
M. Gibbs-White
61'
N. Williams
/
D. Bakwa
63'
S. Fofana
/ A. Varela
74'
74'
I. Sangare
/
J. McAtee
Pre-match prediction
62.66%
FC
20.76%
X ←
16.58%
Nottingham
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.76%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.09
2.16
+0.07
1.13
0.45
-0.68
FC Porto dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.45).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
99
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
12
Zaidu
D
5
J. Bednarek
D
J. Bednarek
D
3
Thiago Silva
D
Thiago Silva
D
52
M. Fernandes
1 ⚽
19'
D
10
Gabri Veiga
1 👟
59'
M
Gabri Veiga
1 👟
59'
M
13
Pablo Rosario
M
Pablo Rosario
M
42
Seko Fofana
74'
M
Seko Fofana
74'
M
17
Borja Sainz
59'
F
Borja Sainz
59'
F
29
Terem Moffi
59'
F
Terem Moffi
59'
F
7
William
1 ⚽
F
William
1 ⚽
F
Bench
20
Alberto Baio
71'
D
Alberto Baio
71'
D
22
A. Varela
16'
M
A. Varela
16'
M
27
Deniz Gül
31'
F
Deniz Gül
31'
F
74
Francisco Moura
D
Francisco Moura
D
4
Jakub Kiwior
D
Jakub Kiwior
D
11
Pepê Aquino
31'
F
Pepê Aquino
31'
F
86
Rodrigo Mora
M
Rodrigo Mora
M
58
Tiago Silva
M
Tiago Silva
M
8
Victor Mow Froholdt
31'
M
Victor Mow Froholdt
31'
M
27
G
4
Morato
D
Morato
D
5
Murillo
45'
D
44
Z. Abbott
D
14
D. Ndoye
M
16
Nicolás Domínguez
M
Nicolás Domínguez
M
22
Ryan Yates
M
Ryan Yates
M
29
Dilane Bakwa
61'
M
Dilane Bakwa
61'
M
24
James McAtee
74'
F
James McAtee
74'
F
10
M. Gibbs-White
60'
F
M. Gibbs-White
60'
F
11
Chris Wood
45'
F
Chris Wood
45'
F
Bench
7
C. Hudson-Odoi
F
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
16'
M
19
Igor Jesus
45'
F
Igor Jesus
45'
F
3
Neco Williams
29'
D
Neco Williams
29'
D
31
Nikola Milenković
45'
D
Nikola Milenković
45'
D
34
O. Aina
D
21
Omari Hutchinson
30'
F
Omari Hutchinson
30'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Nottingham
8.30
· 47 pass
William
F · FC
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 26 pass
J. Bednarek
D · FC
7.50
· 83 pass
A. Varela
M · FC
7.30
2 shots
· 16 pass
Seko Fofana
M · FC
7.30
· 30 pass
Diogo Costa
G · FC
7.30
· 22 pass
FC Porto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Zaidu | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 55 | 43% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 83 | 78% | 3 | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 89 | 83% | — | — | — |
| M. Fernandes | D | 19 | 5.70 | 1 | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Gabri Veiga | M | 59 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 29 | 26% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Pablo Rosario | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 55 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Seko Fofana | M | 74 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Borja Sainz | F | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Terem Moffi | F | 59 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| William | F | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Alberto Baio | D | 71 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 45 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Varela | M | 16 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Deniz Gül | F | 31 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Pepê Aquino | F | 31 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | M | 31 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 47 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| Morato | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 54 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Z. Abbott | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Ndoye | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 4 | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 71 | 69% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Yates | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Dilane Bakwa | M | 61 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| James McAtee | F | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | F | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Chris Wood | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Neco Williams | D | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | F | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Porto vs Nottingham Forest?
The final score was FC Porto 1–1 Nottingham Forest.
What did the model predict before FC Porto vs Nottingham Forest?
The model assigned 62% probability to a FC Porto win, 20% to a draw, and 16% to an Nottingham Forest win.