← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 11, 2026 20:30
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
0 – 5
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 86 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
9' (ast. K. Laimer) J. Musiala
53' L. Goretzka
55' (ast. L. Goretzka) M. Olise
65' (ast. J. Musiala) N. Jackson
88' R. Guerreiro

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 84% win probability (draw 8%, FC St. Pauli 6%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
8
0.49
Actual xG
3.37
3
Saves
3
23%
Possession
77%
3
Corners
4
18
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
ast. K. Laimer · J. Musiala⚽
19'
Konrad Laimer
Joel Chima Fujita
52'
52'
Michael Olise
53'
L. Goretzka⚽
55'
ast. L. Goretzka · M. Olise⚽
58'
J. Stanisic / K. Laimer ↕
59'
L. Diaz / M. Olise ↕
59'
A. Davies / J. Kimmich ↕
65'
ast. J. Musiala · N. Jackson⚽
↕ J. Fujita / C. Metcalfe
66'
67'
J. Tah / H. Ito ↕
↕ A. Hountondji / M. Kaars
77'
↕ L. Ritzka / L. Oppie
77'
84'
B. Ndiaye / J. Musiala ↕
88'
R. Guerreiro⚽
↕ M. Pereira Lage / T. Hara
89'
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
6.88%
FC
8.87%
X
84.25%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 84.25% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.80
0.49
-0.31
Bayern
3.55
3.37
-0.18
Bayern München dominated by xG (3.37 vs 0.49). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
22
G 5.20
3
K. Mets D 5.30
5
D 6.50
15
Tomoya Ando D 5.30
21
L. Ritzka 77' M 6.20
16
J. Fujita 66' M 6.20
20
M. Rasmussen M 7.00
11
M 6.20
28
Mathias Pereira Lage 88' F 6.70
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F 6.20
27
A. Hountondji 77' F 6.50
Bench
9
A. Ceesay F
24
C. Metcalfe 24' M 6.30
23
L. Oppie 13' D 6.20
19
M. Kaars 13' F 6.50
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
1
M. Neuer G 7.20
20
T. Bischof D 7.60
21
H. Ito 67' D 7.20
3
Kim Min-Jae D 8.30
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 1 👟 58' D 7.50
8
Leon Goretzka 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.30
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich 59' M 8.90
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 ⚽ 1 👟 84' M 7.00
22
R. Guerreiro 1 ⚽ M 7.00
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 ⚽ 59' M 7.90
11
N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
19
A. Davies 31' D 7.20
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović M
39
B. Ndiaye 12' F 7.00
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano D
9 H. Kane H. Kane F
4
Jonathan Tah 23' D 8.30
44
J. Stanisic 32' D 6.90
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 31' F 6.00
Best on the pitch
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.90
· 103 pass
Jonathan Tah
D · Bayern
8.30
· 52 pass
Leon Goretzka
M · Bayern
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 101 pass
Kim Min-Jae
D · Bayern
8.30
· 127 pass
M. Olise
M. Olise
M · Bayern
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 34 pass
T. Bischof
D · Bayern
7.60
1 shots · 104 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.20 — — — 33 20% — — —
K. Mets D 90 5.30 — — — 41 32% 2 — —
D 90 6.50 — — 1 30 29% 2 — —
Tomoya Ando D 90 5.30 — — 1 26 21% 1 — —
L. Ritzka M 77 6.20 — — — 24 15% 3 — —
J. Fujita M 66 6.20 — — 1 18 16% 1 1 —
M. Rasmussen M 90 7.00 — — — 29 20% 5 — —
M 90 6.20 — — — 17 11% 2 — —
Mathias Pereira Lage F 88 6.70 — — — 13 10% 2 — —
D. Sinani F 90 6.20 — — — 24 16% — — —
A. Hountondji F 77 6.50 — — 1 5 4% — — —
C. Metcalfe M 24 6.30 — — 1 4 2% — — —
L. Oppie D 13 6.20 — — — 7 4% — — —
M. Kaars F 13 6.50 — — — 2 1% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Neuer G 90 7.20 — — — 38 35% — — —
T. Bischof D 90 7.60 — — 1 104 97% 4 — —
H. Ito D 67 7.20 — — — 70 64% — — —
Kim Min-Jae D 90 8.30 — — — 127 123% 1 — —
K. Laimer D 58 7.50 — 1 1 44 39% 1 1 —
Leon Goretzka M 90 8.30 1 1 1 101 90% 2 — —
J. Kimmich M 59 8.90 — — — 103 100% — — —
J. Musiala M 84 7.00 1 1 2 36 29% — — —
R. Guerreiro M 90 7.00 1 — 2 76 65% 1 — —
M. Olise M 59 7.90 1 — 2 34 26% — 1 —
N. Jackson F 90 7.20 1 — 4 29 24% 1 — —
A. Davies D 31 7.20 — — — 45 44% — — —
B. Ndiaye F 12 7.00 — — — 17 17% 1 — —
Jonathan Tah D 23 8.30 — — — 52 52% — — —
J. Stanisic D 32 6.90 — — — 38 37% — — —
L. Díaz F 31 6.00 — — — 30 29% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 6% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 8% to a draw, and 84% to an Bayern München win.