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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 11, 2026 18:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
0 – 5
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 17 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
9' (ast. K. Laimer) J. Musiala
53' L. Goretzka
55' (ast. L. Goretzka) M. Olise
65' (ast. J. Musiala) N. Jackson
88' R. Guerreiro
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 84% win probability (draw 8%, FC St. Pauli 6%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
8
0.49
Actual xG
3.37
3
Saves
3
23%
Possession
77%
3
Corners
4
18
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
ast. K. Laimer · J. Musiala⚽
19'
Konrad Laimer
Joel Chima Fujita
52'
52'
Michael Olise
53'
L. Goretzka⚽
55'
ast. L. Goretzka · M. Olise⚽
58'
J. Stanisic / K. Laimer ↕
59'
L. Diaz / M. Olise ↕
59'
A. Davies / J. Kimmich ↕
65'
ast. J. Musiala · N. Jackson⚽
↕ J. Fujita / C. Metcalfe
66'
67'
J. Tah / H. Ito ↕
↕ A. Hountondji / M. Kaars
77'
↕ L. Ritzka / L. Oppie
77'
84'
B. Ndiaye / J. Musiala ↕
88'
R. Guerreiro⚽
↕ M. Pereira Lage / T. Hara
89'
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
6.88%
FC
8.87%
X
84.25%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 84.25% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.80
0.49
-0.31
Bayern
3.55
3.37
-0.18
Bayern München dominated by xG (3.37 vs 0.49). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
22
G 5.20
3 K. Mets K. Mets D 5.30
5
D 6.50
15 T. Ando T. Ando D 5.30
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka 77' M 6.20
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita 66' M 6.20
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen M 7.00
11
M 6.20
28
Mathias Pereira Lage 88' F 6.70
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F 6.20
27 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 77' F 6.50
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay F
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 24' M 6.30
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie 13' D 6.20
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars 13' F 6.50
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G 7.20
20 T. Bischof T. Bischof D 7.60
21 H. Ito H. Ito 67' D 7.20
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae D 8.30
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 1 👟 58' D 7.50
8 L. Goretzka L. Goretzka 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.30
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich 59' M 8.90
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 1 ⚽ 1 👟 84' M 7.00
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 1 ⚽ M 7.00
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 ⚽ 59' M 7.90
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 1 ⚽ F 7.20
Bench
19 A. Davies A. Davies 31' D 7.20
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović M
39 Bara Ndiaye Bara Ndiaye 12' F 7.00
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano D
9 H. Kane H. Kane F
44 J. Stanišić J. Stanišić 32' D 6.90
4 J. Tah J. Tah 23' D 8.30
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 31' F 6.00
Best on the pitch
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.90
· 103 pass
J. Tah
J. Tah
D · Bayern
8.30
· 52 pass
L. Goretzka
L. Goretzka
M · Bayern
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 101 pass
Kim Min-Jae
Kim Min-Jae
D · Bayern
8.30
· 127 pass
M. Olise
M. Olise
M · Bayern
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 34 pass
T. Bischof
T. Bischof
D · Bayern
7.60
1 shots · 104 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.20 — — — 33 20% — — —
K. Mets D 90 5.30 — — — 41 32% 2 — —
D 90 6.50 — — 1 30 29% 2 — —
T. Ando D 90 5.30 — — 1 26 21% 1 — —
L. Ritzka M 77 6.20 — — — 24 15% 3 — —
J. Fujita M 66 6.20 — — 1 18 16% 1 1 —
M. Rasmussen M 90 7.00 — — — 29 20% 5 — —
M 90 6.20 — — — 17 11% 2 — —
Mathias Pereira Lage F 88 6.70 — — — 13 10% 2 — —
D. Sinani F 90 6.20 — — — 24 16% — — —
A. Hountondji F 77 6.50 — — 1 5 4% — — —
C. Metcalfe M 24 6.30 — — 1 4 2% — — —
L. Oppie D 13 6.20 — — — 7 4% — — —
M. Kaars F 13 6.50 — — — 2 1% — — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Neuer G 90 7.20 — — — 38 35% — — —
T. Bischof D 90 7.60 — — 1 104 97% 4 — —
H. Ito D 67 7.20 — — — 70 64% — — —
Kim Min-Jae D 90 8.30 — — — 127 123% 1 — —
K. Laimer D 58 7.50 — 1 1 44 39% 1 1 —
L. Goretzka M 90 8.30 1 1 1 101 90% 2 — —
J. Kimmich M 59 8.90 — — — 103 100% — — —
J. Musiala M 84 7.00 1 1 2 36 29% — — —
Raphaël Guerreiro M 90 7.00 1 — 2 76 65% 1 — —
M. Olise M 59 7.90 1 — 2 34 26% — 1 —
N. Jackson F 90 7.20 1 — 4 29 24% 1 — —
A. Davies D 31 7.20 — — — 45 44% — — —
Bara Ndiaye F 12 7.00 — — — 17 17% 1 — —
J. Stanišić D 32 6.90 — — — 38 37% — — —
J. Tah D 23 8.30 — — — 52 52% — — —
L. Díaz F 31 6.00 — — — 30 29% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 6% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 8% to a draw, and 84% to an Bayern München win.