✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
9'
(ast. K. Laimer)
J. Musiala
53'
L. Goretzka
55'
(ast. L. Goretzka)
M. Olise
65'
(ast. J. Musiala)
N. Jackson
88'
R. Guerreiro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 84% win probability (draw 8%, FC St. Pauli 6%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
8
0.49
Actual xG
3.37
3
Saves
3
23%
Possession
77%
3
Corners
4
18
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
ast. K. Laimer ·
J. Musiala⚽
19'
Konrad Laimer
Joel Chima Fujita
52'
52'
Michael Olise
53'
L. Goretzka⚽
55'
ast. L. Goretzka ·
M. Olise⚽
58'
J. Stanisic
/
K. Laimer
59'
L. Diaz
/
M. Olise
59'
A. Davies
/
J. Kimmich
65'
ast. J. Musiala ·
N. Jackson⚽
J. Fujita
/ C. Metcalfe
66'
67'
J. Tah
/
H. Ito
A. Hountondji
/ M. Kaars
77'
L. Ritzka
/ L. Oppie
77'
84'
B. Ndiaye
/
J. Musiala
88'
R. Guerreiro⚽
M. Pereira Lage
/ T. Hara
89'
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
6.88%
FC
8.87%
X
84.25%
Bayern ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München)
84.25%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.80
0.49
-0.31
3.55
3.37
-0.18
Bayern München dominated by xG (3.37 vs 0.49).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
22
G
3
Karol Mets
D
Karol Mets
D
5
D
15
Tomoya Ando
D
Tomoya Ando
D
21
Lars Ritzka
77'
M
Lars Ritzka
77'
M
16
Joel Chima Fujita
66'
M
Joel Chima Fujita
66'
M
20
Mathias Rasmussen
M
Mathias Rasmussen
M
11
M
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
88'
F
10
D. Sinani
F
D. Sinani
F
27
Andreas Hountondji
77'
F
Andreas Hountondji
77'
F
Bench
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
F
Abdoulie Ceesay
F
24
Connor Metcalfe
24'
M
Connor Metcalfe
24'
M
23
Louis Oppie
13'
D
Louis Oppie
13'
D
19
Martijn Kaars
13'
F
Martijn Kaars
13'
F
1
Manuel Neuer
G
Manuel Neuer
G
20
Tom Bischof
D
Tom Bischof
D
21
Hiroki Itō
67'
D
Hiroki Itō
67'
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
D
Kim Min-Jae
D
27
K. Laimer
1 👟
58'
D
K. Laimer
1 👟
58'
D
8
Leon Goretzka
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
Leon Goretzka
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
6
J. Kimmich
59'
M
J. Kimmich
59'
M
10
J. Musiala
1 ⚽
1 👟
84'
M
J. Musiala
1 ⚽
1 👟
84'
M
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
1 ⚽
M
Raphaël Guerreiro
1 ⚽
M
17
M. Olise
1 ⚽
59'
M
M. Olise
1 ⚽
59'
M
11
N. Jackson
1 ⚽
F
N. Jackson
1 ⚽
F
Bench
19
Alphonso Davies
31'
D
Alphonso Davies
31'
D
45
A. Pavlović
M
A. Pavlović
M
39
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
12'
F
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
12'
F
2
D. Upamecano
D
D. Upamecano
D
9
H. Kane
F
H. Kane
F
4
Jonathan Tah
23'
D
Jonathan Tah
23'
D
44
Josip Stanišić
32'
D
Josip Stanišić
32'
D
14
L. Díaz
31'
F
L. Díaz
31'
F
Best on the pitch
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.90
· 103 pass
Jonathan Tah
D · Bayern
8.30
· 52 pass
Leon Goretzka
M · Bayern
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 101 pass
Kim Min-Jae
D · Bayern
8.30
· 127 pass
M. Olise
M · Bayern
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 34 pass
Tom Bischof
D · Bayern
7.60
1 shots
· 104 pass
FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Karol Mets | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 29% | 2 | — | — | |
| Tomoya Ando | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Lars Ritzka | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Joel Chima Fujita | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mathias Rasmussen | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | 5 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 2 | — | — | |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | F | 88 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Sinani | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Andreas Hountondji | F | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Connor Metcalfe | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Louis Oppie | D | 13 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Martijn Kaars | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Neuer | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Tom Bischof | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 104 | 97% | 4 | — | — |
| Hiroki Itō | D | 67 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 70 | 64% | — | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 127 | 123% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Laimer | D | 58 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 44 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 101 | 90% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 59 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 103 | 100% | — | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 84 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Raphaël Guerreiro | M | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 76 | 65% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 59 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 34 | 26% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 29 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Alphonso Davies | D | 31 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Bara Sapoko Ndiaye | F | 12 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Jonathan Tah | D | 23 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 52 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 37% | — | — | — |
| L. Díaz | F | 31 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 0–5 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 6% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 8% to a draw, and 84% to an Bayern München win.