Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 18:30

FC St. Pauli

#18 · 26 pts

1 – 2

Final score

SC Freiburg

#7 · 44 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Freiburg a 41% win probability (draw 29%, FC St. Pauli 28%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–2 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for SC Freiburg.

Match statistics

5

Shots on target

6

0.76

Actual xG

2.04

49%

Possession

51%

3

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

28.66%

FC

29.64%

X

41.7%

SC ←

we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 41.7% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

FC

1.01

0.76

-0.25

SC

1.15

2.04

+0.89

SC Freiburg dominated by xG (2.04 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	33	86
2	Borussia Dortmund	33	70
3	RB Leipzig	33	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	33	61
5	1899 Hoffenheim	33	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	33	58
7	SC Freiburg	33	44
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	33	43
9	FC Augsburg	33	43
10	FSV Mainz 05	33	37
11	Hamburger SV	33	37
12	Union Berlin	33	36
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach	33	35
14	1. FC Köln	33	32
15	Werder Bremen	33	32
16	VfL Wolfsburg	33	26
17	1. FC Heidenheim	33	26
18	FC St. Pauli	33	26