Bundesliga · Regular Season - 27 March 22, 2026 17:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

1 – 2

Final score

SC Freiburg

#1 · 9 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Freiburg a 41% win probability (draw 29%, FC St. Pauli 28%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–2 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for SC Freiburg.

Match statistics

5

Shots on target

6

0.76

Actual xG

2.04

49%

Possession

51%

3

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

28.66%

FC

29.64%

X

41.7%

SC ←

we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 41.7% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

FC

1.01

0.76

-0.25

SC

1.15

2.04

+0.89

SC Freiburg dominated by xG (2.04 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	3	9
2	Borussia Dortmund	3	9
3	FC Augsburg	3	7
4	Bayern München	3	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	6
6	SV Elversberg	3	6
7	Bayer Leverkusen	3	4
8	FSV Mainz 05	3	4
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	3	4
10	Werder Bremen	3	4
11	FC Schalke 04	3	4
12	1. FC Köln	3	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim	3	3
14	VfB Stuttgart	3	3
15	SC Paderborn 07	3	1
16	Union Berlin	3	1
17	Borussia Mönchengladbach	3	0
18	Hamburger SV	3	0