Serie A · Regular Season - 30 March 22, 2026 21:45

Fiorentina

#15 · 38 pts

1 – 1

Final score

Inter

#1 · 85 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Inter, result Pareggio

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Inter a 56% win probability (draw 19%, Fiorentina 23%). The final result was Fiorentina 1–1 Inter. In 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Inter.

Match statistics

6

Shots on target

4

2.28

Actual xG

1.22

40%

Possession

60%

3

Corners

5

Pre-match prediction

23.81%

Fiorentina

19.8%

X ←

56.4%

Inter

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 19.8% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Fiorentina

1.06

2.28

+1.22

Inter

2.18

1.22

-0.96

Fiorentina dominated by xG (2.28 vs 1.22). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Inter	36	85
2	Napoli	36	70
3	Juventus	36	68
4	AC Milan	36	67
5	AS Roma	36	67
6	Como	36	65
7	Atalanta	36	58
8	Bologna	36	52
9	Lazio	36	51
10	Udinese	36	50
11	Sassuolo	36	49
12	Torino	36	44
13	Parma	36	42
14	Genoa	36	41
15	Fiorentina	36	38
16	Cagliari	36	37
17	Lecce	36	32
18	Cremonese	36	31
19	Hellas Verona	36	20
20	Pisa	36	18