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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 21:30
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · 37 pts
0 – 1
Final score
SC Freiburg
#7 · 44 pts
47' (ast. M. Ginter) L. Holer

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 49% win probability (draw 21%, SC Freiburg 28%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for SC Freiburg.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
3
0.63
Actual xG
0.57
2
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
4
23
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
33'
Bruno Ogbus
45'+4
Maximilian Eggestein
46'
P. Lienhart / B. Ogbus ↕
47'
ast. M. Ginter · L. Holer⚽
Nikolas Veratschnig
55'
↕ N. Veratschnig / S. Widmer
62'
↕ S. Kawasaki / N. Amiri
62'
64'
J. Beste / C. Irie ↕
64'
P. Treu / L. Kubler ↕
73'
Lucas Höler
↕ P. Mwene / A. Caci
74'
↕ P. Nebel / A. Sieb
74'
74'
V. Grifo / D. Scherhant ↕
↕ D. da Costa / N. Weiper
83'
83'
J. Makengo / M. Ginter ↕
Pre-match prediction
49.71%
FSV
21.95%
X
28.34%
SC ←
we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 28.34% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
1.99
0.63
-1.36
SC
1.29
0.57
-0.72
xG dominance was balanced (0.63 – 0.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G 7.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr D 6.60
4 Stefan Posch Stefan Posch D 8.00
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa 83' D 7.30
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano M 6.50
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene 74' M 6.60
8 Paul Nebel Paul Nebel 74' M 6.60
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki 62' M 6.70
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig 62' M 6.70
23 S. Becker S. Becker F 6.30
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz F 6.30
Bench
19 Anthony Caci Anthony Caci 16' D 6.90
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 16' F 6.60
48 Kacper Potulski Kacper Potulski D
10 Nadiem Amiri Nadiem Amiri 28' M 6.90
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 15' F 6.50
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 28' D 6.60
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 Noah Atubolu Noah Atubolu G 7.30
30 Christian Günter Christian Günter D 7.50
43 Bruno Ogbus Bruno Ogbus 45' D 6.30
28 Matthias Ginter Matthias Ginter 1 👟 83' D 7.30
17 Lukas Kübler Lukas Kübler 64' D 6.60
44 Johan Manzambi Johan Manzambi M 7.60
8 Maximilian Eggestein Maximilian Eggestein M 6.30
7 Derry Scherhant Derry Scherhant 74' M 7.00
9 L. Höler L. Höler 1 ⚽ M 7.20
22 Cyriaque Irié Cyriaque Irié 64' M 6.60
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović F 6.20
Bench
19 J. Beste J. Beste 26' D 6.90
33 Jordy Makengo Jordy Makengo 15' D 6.90
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler M
3 Philipp Lienhart Philipp Lienhart 45' D 7.00
29 Philipp Treu Philipp Treu 26' D 6.70
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo 16' M 6.70
14 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki M
Best on the pitch
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch
D · FSV
8.00
1 shots · 51 pass
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi
M · SC
7.60
2 shots · 45 pass
Christian Günter
Christian Günter
D · SC
7.50
· 26 pass
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter
D · SC
7.30
1 👟
· 48 pass
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu
G · SC
7.30
· 34 pass
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa
D · FSV
7.30
1 shots · 33 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Batz G 90 7.30 — — — 36 28% — — —
D. Kohr D 90 6.60 — — 1 40 31% 2 — —
Stefan Posch D 90 8.00 — — 1 51 36% 7 — —
Danny da Costa D 83 7.30 — — 1 33 25% 4 — —
Kaishu Sano M 90 6.50 — — — 39 29% — — —
Phillipp Mwene M 74 6.60 — — — 13 10% — — —
Paul Nebel M 74 6.60 — — — 15 13% 1 — —
Sota Kawasaki M 62 6.70 — — — 17 13% 1 — —
Nikolas Veratschnig M 62 6.70 — — 1 13 8% 4 1 —
S. Becker F 90 6.30 — — 2 15 9% — — —
Phillip Tietz F 90 6.30 — — — 20 11% 1 — —
Anthony Caci D 16 6.90 — — — 15 12% 2 — —
Armindo Sieb F 16 6.60 — — 1 7 7% — — —
Nadiem Amiri M 28 6.90 — — — 17 13% 1 — —
Nelson Weiper F 15 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
S. Widmer D 28 6.60 — — 2 7 7% — — —
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Noah Atubolu G 90 7.30 — — — 34 27% — — —
Christian Günter D 90 7.50 — — — 26 19% 1 — —
Bruno Ogbus D 45 6.30 — — — 26 24% — 1 —
Matthias Ginter D 83 7.30 — 1 — 48 39% — — —
Lukas Kübler D 64 6.60 — — — 17 15% — — —
Johan Manzambi M 90 7.60 — — 2 45 39% 2 — —
Maximilian Eggestein M 90 6.30 — — — 44 38% — 1 —
Derry Scherhant M 74 7.00 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
L. Höler M 90 7.20 1 — 1 21 13% 1 1 —
Cyriaque Irié M 64 6.60 — — — 20 18% 2 — —
I. Matanović F 90 6.20 — — 2 14 6% 3 — —
J. Beste D 26 6.90 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Jordy Makengo D 15 6.90 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Philipp Lienhart D 45 7.00 — — — 21 16% — — —
Philipp Treu D 26 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
V. Grifo M 16 6.70 — — — 5 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The model assigned 49% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 21% to a draw, and 28% to an SC Freiburg win.