Skip to main content
← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 19:30 Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
#6 · 7 pts
0 – 1
Final score
SC Freiburg
#3 · 10 pts
47' (ast. M. Ginter) L. Holer
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 49% win probability (draw 21%, SC Freiburg 28%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for SC Freiburg.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
3
0.63
Actual xG
0.57
2
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
4
23
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
33'
Bruno Ogbus
45'+4
Maximilian Eggestein
46'
P. Lienhart / B. Ogbus ↕
47'
ast. M. Ginter · L. Holer⚽
Nikolas Veratschnig
55'
↕ N. Veratschnig / S. Widmer
62'
↕ S. Kawasaki / N. Amiri
62'
64'
J. Beste / C. Irie ↕
64'
P. Treu / L. Kubler ↕
73'
Lucas Höler
↕ P. Mwene / A. Caci
74'
↕ P. Nebel / A. Sieb
74'
74'
V. Grifo / D. Scherhant ↕
↕ D. da Costa / N. Weiper
83'
83'
J. Makengo / M. Ginter ↕
Pre-match prediction
49.71%
FSV
21.95%
X
28.34%
SC ←
we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 28.34% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
1.99
0.63
-1.36
SC
1.29
0.57
-0.72
xG dominance was balanced (0.63 – 0.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4 12
2 Bayern München Bayern München 4 10
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4 10
4 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 4 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4 7
6 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 4 7
7 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 4 7
8 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4 7
9 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 4 5
11 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 4 5
12 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 4 4
13 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4 4
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 4 3
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 4 3
16 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 4 3
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4 1
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
33 D. Batz D. Batz G 7.30
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr D 6.60
4 S. Posch S. Posch D 8.00
21 D. da Costa D. da Costa 83' D 7.30
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano M 6.50
2 P. Mwene P. Mwene 74' M 6.60
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel 74' M 6.60
24 S. Kawasaki S. Kawasaki 62' M 6.70
22 N. Veratschnig N. Veratschnig 62' M 6.70
23 S. Becker S. Becker F 6.30
20 P. Tietz P. Tietz F 6.30
Bench
19 A. Caci A. Caci 16' D 6.90
11 A. Sieb A. Sieb 16' F 6.60
48 K. Potulski K. Potulski D
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri 28' M 6.90
44 N. Weiper N. Weiper 15' F 6.50
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 28' D 6.60
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu N. Atubolu G 7.30
30 C. Günter C. Günter D 7.50
43 I. Ogbus I. Ogbus 45' D 6.30
28 M. Ginter M. Ginter 1 👟 83' D 7.30
17 L. Kübler L. Kübler 64' D 6.60
44 J. Manzambi J. Manzambi M 7.60
8 M. Eggestein M. Eggestein M 6.30
7 D. Scherhant D. Scherhant 74' M 7.00
9 L. Höler L. Höler 1 ⚽ M 7.20
22 Cyriaque Kalou Irié Cyriaque Kalou Irié 64' M 6.60
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović F 6.20
Bench
19 J. Beste J. Beste 26' D 6.90
33 J. Makengo J. Makengo 15' D 6.90
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler M
3 P. Lienhart P. Lienhart 45' D 7.00
29 P. Treu P. Treu 26' D 6.70
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo 16' M 6.70
14 Yuito Suzuki Yuito Suzuki M
Best on the pitch
S. Posch
S. Posch
D · FSV
8.00
1 shots · 51 pass
J. Manzambi
J. Manzambi
M · SC
7.60
2 shots · 45 pass
C. Günter
C. Günter
D · SC
7.50
· 26 pass
M. Ginter
M. Ginter
D · SC
7.30
1 👟
· 48 pass
N. Atubolu
N. Atubolu
G · SC
7.30
· 34 pass
D. da Costa
D. da Costa
D · FSV
7.30
1 shots · 33 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Batz G 90 7.30 — — — 36 28% — — —
D. Kohr D 90 6.60 — — 1 40 31% 2 — —
S. Posch D 90 8.00 — — 1 51 36% 7 — —
D. da Costa D 83 7.30 — — 1 33 25% 4 — —
Kaishu Sano M 90 6.50 — — — 39 29% — — —
P. Mwene M 74 6.60 — — — 13 10% — — —
P. Nebel M 74 6.60 — — — 15 13% 1 — —
S. Kawasaki M 62 6.70 — — — 17 13% 1 — —
N. Veratschnig M 62 6.70 — — 1 13 8% 4 1 —
S. Becker F 90 6.30 — — 2 15 9% — — —
P. Tietz F 90 6.30 — — — 20 11% 1 — —
A. Caci D 16 6.90 — — — 15 12% 2 — —
A. Sieb F 16 6.60 — — 1 7 7% — — —
N. Amiri M 28 6.90 — — — 17 13% 1 — —
N. Weiper F 15 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
S. Widmer D 28 6.60 — — 2 7 7% — — —
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Atubolu G 90 7.30 — — — 34 27% — — —
C. Günter D 90 7.50 — — — 26 19% 1 — —
I. Ogbus D 45 6.30 — — — 26 24% — 1 —
M. Ginter D 83 7.30 — 1 — 48 39% — — —
L. Kübler D 64 6.60 — — — 17 15% — — —
J. Manzambi M 90 7.60 — — 2 45 39% 2 — —
M. Eggestein M 90 6.30 — — — 44 38% — 1 —
D. Scherhant M 74 7.00 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
L. Höler M 90 7.20 1 — 1 21 13% 1 1 —
Cyriaque Kalou Irié M 64 6.60 — — — 20 18% 2 — —
I. Matanović F 90 6.20 — — 2 14 6% 3 — —
J. Beste D 26 6.90 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
J. Makengo D 15 6.90 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
P. Lienhart D 45 7.00 — — — 21 16% — — —
P. Treu D 26 6.70 — — — 4 3% — — —
V. Grifo M 16 6.70 — — — 5 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The model assigned 49% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 21% to a draw, and 28% to an SC Freiburg win.