47'
(ast. M. Ginter)
L. Holer
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 49% win probability (draw 21%, SC Freiburg 28%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for SC Freiburg.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
5
3
Shots on target
3
0.63
Actual xG
0.57
2
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
4
23
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
33'
Bruno Ogbus
45'+4
Maximilian Eggestein
46'
P. Lienhart
/
B. Ogbus
47'
ast. M. Ginter ·
L. Holer⚽
Nikolas Veratschnig
55'
N. Veratschnig
/ S. Widmer
62'
S. Kawasaki
/ N. Amiri
62'
64'
J. Beste
/
C. Irie
64'
P. Treu
/
L. Kubler
73'
Lucas Höler
P. Mwene
/ A. Caci
74'
P. Nebel
/ A. Sieb
74'
74'
V. Grifo
/
D. Scherhant
D. da Costa
/ N. Weiper
83'
83'
J. Makengo
/
M. Ginter
Pre-match prediction
49.71%
FSV
21.95%
X
28.34%
SC ←
we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg)
28.34%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.99
0.63
-1.36
1.29
0.57
-0.72
xG dominance was balanced (0.63 – 0.57).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
33
Daniel Batz
G
Daniel Batz
G
31
D. Kohr
D
D. Kohr
D
4
S. Posch
D
S. Posch
D
21
Danny da Costa
83'
D
Danny da Costa
83'
D
6
Kaishu Sano
M
Kaishu Sano
M
2
Phillipp Mwene
74'
M
Phillipp Mwene
74'
M
8
P. Nebel
74'
M
P. Nebel
74'
M
24
Sota Kawasaki
62'
M
Sota Kawasaki
62'
M
22
Nikolas Veratschnig
62'
M
Nikolas Veratschnig
62'
M
23
S. Becker
F
S. Becker
F
20
Phillip Tietz
F
Phillip Tietz
F
Bench
19
Anthony Caci
16'
D
Anthony Caci
16'
D
11
Armindo Sieb
16'
F
Armindo Sieb
16'
F
48
Kacper Potulski
D
10
N. Amiri
28'
M
N. Amiri
28'
M
44
N. Weiper
15'
F
N. Weiper
15'
F
30
S. Widmer
28'
D
S. Widmer
28'
D
1
Noah Atubolu
G
Noah Atubolu
G
30
Christian Günter
D
Christian Günter
D
43
Bruno Ogbus
45'
D
Bruno Ogbus
45'
D
28
Matthias Ginter
1 👟
83'
D
Matthias Ginter
1 👟
83'
D
17
Lukas Kübler
64'
D
Lukas Kübler
64'
D
44
J. Manzambi
M
J. Manzambi
M
8
M. Eggestein
M
M. Eggestein
M
7
Derry Scherhant
74'
M
Derry Scherhant
74'
M
9
L. Höler
1 ⚽
M
L. Höler
1 ⚽
M
22
Cyriaque Irié
64'
M
31
Igor Matanović
F
Igor Matanović
F
Bench
19
J. Beste
26'
D
J. Beste
26'
D
33
Jordy Makengo
15'
D
Jordy Makengo
15'
D
27
Nicolas Höfler
M
Nicolas Höfler
M
3
Philipp Lienhart
45'
D
Philipp Lienhart
45'
D
29
Philipp Treu
26'
D
Philipp Treu
26'
D
32
V. Grifo
16'
M
V. Grifo
16'
M
14
Y. Suzuki
M
Y. Suzuki
M
Best on the pitch
S. Posch
D · FSV
8.00
1 shots
· 51 pass
J. Manzambi
M · SC
7.60
2 shots
· 45 pass
Christian Günter
D · SC
7.50
· 26 pass
Matthias Ginter
D · SC
7.30
1 👟
· 48 pass
Noah Atubolu
G · SC
7.30
· 34 pass
Danny da Costa
D · FSV
7.30
1 shots
· 33 pass
FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Batz | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | — | — | — |
| D. Kohr | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Posch | D | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 36% | 7 | — | — |
| Danny da Costa | D | 83 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| Kaishu Sano | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Phillipp Mwene | M | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| P. Nebel | M | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Sota Kawasaki | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 8% | 4 | 1 | — |
| S. Becker | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Phillip Tietz | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Anthony Caci | D | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Armindo Sieb | F | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Weiper | F | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| S. Widmer | D | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
SC Freiburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Atubolu | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Christian Günter | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Ogbus | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| Matthias Ginter | D | 83 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 48 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Lukas Kübler | D | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 45 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Eggestein | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | — | 1 | — |
| Derry Scherhant | M | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Höler | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Cyriaque Irié | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Igor Matanović | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 6% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Beste | D | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Jordy Makengo | D | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Philipp Treu | D | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| V. Grifo | M | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The model assigned 49% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 21% to a draw, and 28% to an SC Freiburg win.