Serie A · Regular Season - 31 April 04, 2026 20:00

Hellas Verona

#19 · 20 pts

0 – 1

Final score

Fiorentina

#15 · 38 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Fiorentina

82' (ast. J. Harrison) N. Fagioli

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fiorentina a 51% win probability (draw 29%, Hellas Verona 19%). The final result was Hellas Verona 0–1 Fiorentina. In 1 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Fiorentina.

Match statistics

18

Total shots

3

8

Shots on target

1

1.30

Actual xG

0.36

0

Saves

8

50%

Possession

50%

9

Corners

1

16

Tackles

14

3

🟨 Yellow cards

1

1

🟥 Red cards

1

Match Events

Roberto Gagliardini

17'

59'

R. Piccoli / G. Fabbian ↕

↕ G. Orban / A. Sarr

67'

↕ D. Oyegoke / D. Bradaric

75'

↕ A. Bernede / T. Suslov

75'

76'

J. Fazzini / M. Kean ↕

76'

L. Balbo / R. Gosens ↕

Victor Nelsson

79'

82'

ast. J. Harrison · N. Fagioli⚽

84'

Nicolò Fagioli

Tomáš Suslov

85'

85'

Albert Guðmundsson

Rafik Belghali

88'

↕ V. Nelsson / D. Mosquera

90'

90'

E. Kospo / P. Comuzzo ↕

90'

M. Brescianini / N. Fagioli ↕

Pre-match prediction

19.14%

Hellas

29.52%

X

51.34%

Fiorentina ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Fiorentina) 51.34% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Hellas

0.54

1.30

+0.77

Fiorentina

1.28

0.36

-0.92

Hellas Verona dominated by xG (1.30 vs 0.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Inter	36	85
2	Napoli	36	70
3	Juventus	36	68
4	AC Milan	36	67
5	AS Roma	36	67
6	Como	36	65
7	Atalanta	36	58
8	Bologna	36	52
9	Lazio	36	51
10	Udinese	36	50
11	Sassuolo	36	49
12	Torino	36	44
13	Parma	36	42
14	Genoa	36	41
15	Fiorentina	36	38
16	Cagliari	36	37
17	Lecce	36	32
18	Cremonese	36	31
19	Hellas Verona	36	20
20	Pisa	36	18

Lineups

Hellas Verona 3-5-2

1

G 6.30

3 Martin Frese D 7.00

5 Andrias Edmundsson D 6.30

15 Victor Nelsson 89' D 6.90

7 Rafik Belghali M 7.50

24 Antoine Bernede 75' M 7.00

63 R. Gagliardini M 7.30

11 J. Akpa Akpro M 6.30

2

D. Oyegoke 75' M 6.90

16

G. Orban 67' F 6.00

18 K. Bowie F 7.00

Bench

21 Abdou Harroui M

12 Domagoj Bradarić 15' D 6.50

73 Moatasem Al-Musrati M

6 Nicolás Valentini D

10 Tomáš Suslov 10' M 5.50

Fiorentina 4-3-3

43 David De Gea G 9.30

21 Robin Gosens 76' D 7.30

6 L. Ranieri D 6.90

5 M. Pongračić D 7.50

15 Pietro Comuzzo 89' D 7.20

27 C. Ndour M 6.30

44 Nicolò Fagioli 1 ⚽ 89' M 7.70

80 Giovanni Fabbian 59' M 7.00

10 A. Guðmundsson 85' F 6.20

20 M. Kean 76' F 6.70

17 Jack Harrison 1 👟 F 6.20

Bench

3 Daniele Rugani 1' D

22 Jacopo Fazzini 14' M 6.60

62 Luís Balbo 14' D 6.90

4 Marco Brescianini 1' M

91 Roberto Piccoli 31' F 6.30

Best on the pitch

David De Gea

G · Fiorentina

9.30

· 40 pass

Nicolò Fagioli

M · Fiorentina

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 55 pass

M. Pongračić

D · Fiorentina

7.50

· 58 pass

Rafik Belghali

M · Hellas

7.50

3 shots · 30 pass

R. Gagliardini

M · Hellas

7.30

1 shots · 82 pass

Robin Gosens

D · Fiorentina

7.30

· 46 pass

Hellas Verona — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.30	—	—	—	17	9%	—	—	—
Martin Frese	D	90	7.00	—	—	3	40	34%	2	—	—
Andrias Edmundsson	D	90	6.30	—	—	2	41	30%	3	—	—
Victor Nelsson	D	89	6.90	—	—	—	30	23%	2	1	—
Rafik Belghali	M	90	7.50	—	—	3	30	30%	1	1	—
Antoine Bernede	M	75	7.00	—	—	1	44	35%	3	—	—
R. Gagliardini	M	90	7.30	—	—	1	82	74%	4	1	—
J. Akpa Akpro	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	33	24%	1	—	—
D. Oyegoke	M	75	6.90	—	—	2	23	19%	—	—	—
G. Orban	F	67	6.00	—	—	2	22	19%	—	—	—
K. Bowie	F	90	7.00	—	—	4	20	14%	—	—	—
Domagoj Bradarić	D	15	6.50	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
Tomáš Suslov	M	10	5.50	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	1

Fiorentina — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
David De Gea	G	90	9.30	—	—	—	40	25%	—	—	—
Robin Gosens	D	76	7.30	—	—	—	46	38%	1	—	—
L. Ranieri	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	59	53%	1	—	—
M. Pongračić	D	90	7.50	—	—	—	58	53%	2	—	—
Pietro Comuzzo	D	89	7.20	—	—	—	46	41%	2	—	—
C. Ndour	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	27	21%	2	—	—
Nicolò Fagioli	M	89	7.70	1	—	2	55	47%	2	1	—
Giovanni Fabbian	M	59	7.00	—	—	—	18	13%	2	—	—
A. Guðmundsson	F	85	6.20	—	—	1	30	27%	2	—	1
M. Kean	F	76	6.70	—	—	—	8	4%	—	—	—
Jack Harrison	F	90	6.20	—	1	—	34	25%	—	—	—
Daniele Rugani	D	1	—	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—
Jacopo Fazzini	M	14	6.60	—	—	—	3	1%	—	—	—
Luís Balbo	D	14	6.90	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—
Marco Brescianini	M	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Roberto Piccoli	F	31	6.30	—	—	—	4	2%	—	—	—