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Copa Libertadores · Group Stage - 4 May 07, 2026 02:30
Independ. Rivadavia
#1 · 10 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Fluminense
#4 · 2 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Independ. Rivadavia, result Pareggio
A. Arce (ast. L. Gomez) 66'
90'+1 John Kennedy

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Fluminense 15%). The final result was Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense. In 1 previous meetings, Independ. Rivadavia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Fluminense.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
2
1.34
Actual xG
0.75
1
Saves
2
28%
Possession
72%
6
Corners
2
17
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
T. Bottari
37'
38'
Hercules
45'+1
L. Acosta
J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
63'
63'
Nonato
⚽A. Arce · ast. L. Gomez
66'
69'
Guga
78'
Alisson / Nonato ↕
78'
Y. Soteldo / J. Savarino ↕
78'
John Kennedy / Hercules ↕
↕ A. Arce / I. Villalba
79'
80'
L. Zubeldia
↕ L. Gomez / J. M. Elordi
82'
↕ E. Bonifacio / A. Osella
82'
82'
K. Serna / A. Canobbio ↕
↕ M. Fernandez / L. Bucca
86'
↕ F. Sartori / G. Rios
86'
90'+1
John Kennedy⚽
Pre-match prediction
65.71%
Independ.
18.98%
X ←
15.3%
Fluminense
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.98% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Independ.
2.22
1.34
-0.89
Fluminense
0.74
0.75
+0.01
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (1.34 vs 0.75). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 4 7
1 U. Catolica U. Catolica 4 7
1 Mirassol Mirassol 4 9
1 Flamengo Flamengo 3 7
1 Corinthians Corinthians 4 10
1 Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 4 10
1 Rosario Central Rosario Central 4 10
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4 8
2 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 4 7
2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 4 7
2 Platense Platense 4 7
2 Bolívar Bolívar 4 5
2 Lanus Lanus 4 6
2 Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 4 7
2 Coquimbo Unido Coquimbo Unido 4 7
2 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 4 6
3 UCV UCV 4 6
3 Penarol Penarol 4 2
3 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 4 6
3 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 4 6
3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3 4
3 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 4 3
3 Universitario Universitario 4 4
3 LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 4 6
4 Cusco Cusco 4 1
4 Always Ready Always Ready 4 3
4 Club Nacional Club Nacional 4 4
4 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 4 3
4 Fluminense Fluminense 4 2
4 Junior Junior 4 1
4 Santa Fe Santa Fe 4 2
4 Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 4 0
Lineups
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 4-2-3-1
1 Nicolás Bolcato Nicolás Bolcato G 6.90
14 Luciano Gómez Luciano Gómez 1 👟 82' D 7.30
42 Sheyko Studer Sheyko Studer D 6.90
2 Leonard Costa Leonard Costa D 6.30
36 Ezequiel Bonifacio Ezequiel Bonifacio 82' D 6.60
25 José Florentín José Florentín M 7.20
5 Tomas Bottari Tomas Bottari M 6.20
22 S. Villa S. Villa M 7.50
43 F. Sartori F. Sartori 86' M 6.70
10 M. Fernández M. Fernández 86' M 7.30
9 A. Arce A. Arce 1 ⚽ 79' F 7.30
Bench
13 Alejo Osella Alejo Osella 8' D 6.30
20 Alessandro Riep Alessandro Riep M
27 Diego Crego Diego Crego M
11 Gonzalo Ríos Gonzalo Ríos 12' M 6.30
40 Iván Villalba Iván Villalba 11' D 6.30
3 Juan Manuel Elordi Juan Manuel Elordi 8' D 6.50
8 Leonel Bucca Leonel Bucca 12' M 6.70
19 R. Atencio R. Atencio F
34 Stefano Moreyra Stefano Moreyra M
7 Victorio Ramis Victorio Ramis F
Fluminense Fluminense 4-2-3-1
1
G 7.20
13 Guilherme Arana Guilherme Arana D 6.30
22
D 7.30
4 Ignácio Ignácio D 7.20
23 Guga Guga D 6.60
35 Hércules Hércules 78' M 6.90
16 Nonato Nonato 78' M 6.50
11 J. Savarino J. Savarino 78' M 6.20
32 Luciano Acosta Luciano Acosta M 6.70
17 Agustín Canobbio Agustín Canobbio 82' M 6.20
19 Rodrigo Castillo Rodrigo Castillo F 6.30
Bench
25 Alisson Alisson 12' M 6.30
3
Jemmes D
9 John Kennedy John Kennedy 1 ⚽ 12' F 7.30
90 Kevin Serna Kevin Serna 8' F 6.30
94 Otávio Otávio M
10
PH Ganso M
6 Renê Renê D
2 Samuel Xavier Samuel Xavier D
7 Y. Soteldo Y. Soteldo 12' F 6.60
Best on the pitch
S. Villa
S. Villa
M · Independ.
7.50
1 shots · 18 pass
Luciano Gómez
Luciano Gómez
D · Independ.
7.30
1 👟
· 23 pass
John Kennedy
John Kennedy
F · Fluminense
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 3 pass
M. Fernández
M. Fernández
M · Independ.
7.30
2 shots · 25 pass
A. Arce
A. Arce
F · Independ.
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots · 16 pass
D · Fluminense
7.30
· 99 pass
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Nicolás Bolcato G 90 6.90 — — — 22 10% — — —
Luciano Gómez D 82 7.30 — 1 — 23 21% 1 — —
Sheyko Studer D 90 6.90 — — 1 21 16% — — —
Leonard Costa D 90 6.30 — — 1 15 12% — — —
Ezequiel Bonifacio D 82 6.60 — — — 11 8% — — —
José Florentín M 90 7.20 — — 1 27 19% 2 1 —
Tomas Bottari M 90 6.20 — — — 23 17% 6 1 —
S. Villa M 90 7.50 — — 1 18 15% 1 — —
F. Sartori M 86 6.70 — — 1 7 5% 2 — —
M. Fernández M 86 7.30 — — 2 25 19% — — —
A. Arce F 79 7.30 1 — 4 16 8% 1 — —
Alejo Osella D 8 6.30 — — — 3 2% 2 — —
Gonzalo Ríos M 12 6.30 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Iván Villalba D 11 6.30 — — — 1 — — — —
Juan Manuel Elordi D 8 6.50 — — — 2 1% 1 — —
Leonel Bucca M 12 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
Fluminense Fluminense — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 21 18% — — —
Guilherme Arana D 90 6.30 — — 1 76 70% — — —
D 90 7.30 — — — 99 96% — — —
Ignácio D 90 7.20 — — — 58 53% 2 — —
Guga D 90 6.60 — — — 54 52% 4 1 —
Hércules M 78 6.90 — — — 62 57% — 1 —
Nonato M 78 6.50 — — 1 57 48% — 1 —
J. Savarino M 78 6.20 — — — 38 31% — — —
Luciano Acosta M 90 6.70 — — — 62 56% — 1 —
Agustín Canobbio M 82 6.20 — — 3 28 24% 1 — —
Rodrigo Castillo F 90 6.30 — — 3 15 9% 2 — —
Alisson M 12 6.30 — — — 22 20% — — —
John Kennedy F 12 7.30 1 — 1 3 3% — — —
Kevin Serna F 8 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Y. Soteldo F 12 6.60 — — — 14 11% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?
The final score was Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Independ. Rivadavia win, 18% to a draw, and 15% to an Fluminense win.