Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 07, 2026 02:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Independ. Rivadavia, result Draw
A. Arce
(ast. L. Gomez)
66'
90'+1
John Kennedy
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Fluminense 15%). The final result was Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense. In 1 previous meetings, Independ. Rivadavia have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Fluminense.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
2
1.34
Actual xG
0.75
1
Saves
2
28%
Possession
72%
6
Corners
2
17
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
T. Bottari
37'
38'
Hercules
45'+1
L. Acosta
J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
63'
63'
Nonato
⚽A. Arce
· ast. L. Gomez
66'
69'
Guga
78'
Alisson
/
Nonato
78'
Y. Soteldo
/
J. Savarino
78'
John Kennedy
/
Hercules
A. Arce
/ I. Villalba
79'
80'
L. Zubeldia
L. Gomez
/ J. M. Elordi
82'
E. Bonifacio
/ A. Osella
82'
82'
K. Serna
/
A. Canobbio
M. Fernandez
/ L. Bucca
86'
F. Sartori
/ G. Rios
86'
90'+1
John Kennedy⚽
Pre-match prediction
65.71%
Independ.
18.98%
X ←
15.3%
Fluminense
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.98%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.22
1.34
-0.89
0.74
0.75
+0.01
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (1.34 vs 0.75).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
14
Luciano Gómez
1 👟
82'
D
Luciano Gómez
1 👟
82'
D
42
Sheyko Studer
D
Sheyko Studer
D
2
Leonard Costa
D
Leonard Costa
D
36
Ezequiel Bonifacio
82'
D
Ezequiel Bonifacio
82'
D
25
José Florentín
M
José Florentín
M
5
Tomás Bottari
M
Tomás Bottari
M
22
Sebastián Villa
M
Sebastián Villa
M
43
Fabrizio Sartori
86'
M
Fabrizio Sartori
86'
M
10
Matías Fernández
86'
M
Matías Fernández
86'
M
9
Alex Arce
1 ⚽
79'
F
Alex Arce
1 ⚽
79'
F
Bench
13
Alejo Osella
8'
D
Alejo Osella
8'
D
20
Alessandro Riep
M
Alessandro Riep
M
27
Diego Crego
M
Diego Crego
M
11
Gonzalo Ríos
12'
M
Gonzalo Ríos
12'
M
40
Iván Villalba
11'
D
Iván Villalba
11'
D
3
Juan Manuel Elordi
8'
D
Juan Manuel Elordi
8'
D
8
Leonel Bucca
12'
M
Leonel Bucca
12'
M
19
Rodrigo Atencio
F
Rodrigo Atencio
F
34
Stefano Moreyra
M
Stefano Moreyra
M
7
Victorio Ramis
F
Victorio Ramis
F
1
G
13
Guilherme Arana
D
Guilherme Arana
D
22
D
4
Ignácio
D
Ignácio
D
23
Guga
D
Guga
D
35
Hércules
78'
M
Hércules
78'
M
16
Nonato
78'
M
Nonato
78'
M
11
J. Savarino
78'
M
J. Savarino
78'
M
32
L. Acosta
M
L. Acosta
M
17
A. Canobbio
82'
M
A. Canobbio
82'
M
19
Rodrigo Castillo
F
Rodrigo Castillo
F
Bench
25
Alisson
12'
M
Alisson
12'
M
10
Ganso
M
Ganso
M
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
9
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
12'
F
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
12'
F
90
Kevin Serna
8'
F
Kevin Serna
8'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
7
Yeferson Soteldo
12'
F
Yeferson Soteldo
12'
F
Best on the pitch
Sebastián Villa
M · Independ.
7.50
1 shots
· 18 pass
Luciano Gómez
D · Independ.
7.30
1 👟
· 23 pass
John Kennedy
F · Fluminense
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
Matías Fernández
M · Independ.
7.30
2 shots
· 25 pass
Alex Arce
F · Independ.
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 16 pass
D · Fluminense
7.30
· 99 pass
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Gómez | D | 82 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Sheyko Studer | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Leonard Costa | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Ezequiel Bonifacio | D | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| José Florentín | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 19% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Tomás Bottari | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | 6 | 1 | — |
| Sebastián Villa | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabrizio Sartori | M | 86 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Matías Fernández | M | 86 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Alex Arce | F | 79 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 16 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Alejo Osella | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Ríos | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Villalba | D | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Elordi | D | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonel Bucca | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 70% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 99 | 96% | — | — | — | |
| Ignácio | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 58 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 52% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 57% | — | 1 | — |
| Nonato | M | 78 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 48% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 31% | — | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 62 | 56% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 15 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Alisson | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 12 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?
The final score was Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Independ. Rivadavia win, 18% to a draw, and 15% to an Fluminense win.