Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 07, 2026 02:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Independ. Rivadavia, result Draw
A. Arce
(ast. L. Gomez)
66'
90'+1
John Kennedy
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independ. Rivadavia a 65% win probability (draw 18%, Fluminense 15%). The final result was Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense. In 3 previous meetings, Independ. Rivadavia have won 1 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Fluminense.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
2
1.34
Actual xG
0.75
1
Saves
2
28%
Possession
72%
6
Corners
2
17
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
T. Bottari
37'
38'
Hercules
45'+1
L. Acosta
J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
63'
63'
Nonato
⚽A. Arce
· ast. L. Gomez
66'
69'
Guga
78'
Alisson
/
Nonato
78'
Y. Soteldo
/
J. Savarino
78'
John Kennedy
/
Hercules
A. Arce
/ I. Villalba
79'
80'
L. Zubeldia
L. Gomez
/ J. M. Elordi
82'
E. Bonifacio
/ A. Osella
82'
82'
K. Serna
/
A. Canobbio
M. Fernandez
/ L. Bucca
86'
F. Sartori
/ G. Rios
86'
90'+1
John Kennedy⚽
Pre-match prediction
65.71%
Independ.
18.98%
X ←
15.3%
Fluminense
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
18.98%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.22
1.34
-0.89
0.74
0.75
+0.01
Independ. Rivadavia dominated by xG (1.34 vs 0.75).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
14
L. Gómez
1 👟
82'
D
L. Gómez
1 👟
82'
D
42
S. Studer
D
S. Studer
D
2
L. Costa
D
L. Costa
D
36
E. Bonifacio
82'
D
E. Bonifacio
82'
D
25
J. Florentín
M
J. Florentín
M
5
T. Bottari
M
T. Bottari
M
22
S. Villa
M
S. Villa
M
43
F. Sartori
86'
M
F. Sartori
86'
M
10
M. Fernández
86'
M
M. Fernández
86'
M
9
Alex Arce
1 ⚽
79'
F
Alex Arce
1 ⚽
79'
F
Bench
13
A. Osella
8'
D
A. Osella
8'
D
20
A. Riep
M
A. Riep
M
27
D. Crego
M
D. Crego
M
11
G. Ríos
12'
M
G. Ríos
12'
M
40
I. Villalba
11'
D
I. Villalba
11'
D
3
J. Elordi
8'
D
J. Elordi
8'
D
8
L. Bucca
12'
M
L. Bucca
12'
M
19
R. Atencio
F
R. Atencio
F
34
S. Moreyra
M
S. Moreyra
M
7
V. Ramis
F
V. Ramis
F
1
G
13
Guilherme Arana
D
Guilherme Arana
D
22
D
4
Ignacio
D
Ignacio
D
23
Guga
D
Guga
D
35
Hércules
78'
M
Hércules
78'
M
16
Nonato
78'
M
Nonato
78'
M
11
J. Savarino
78'
M
J. Savarino
78'
M
32
L. Acosta
M
L. Acosta
M
17
A. Canobbio
82'
M
A. Canobbio
82'
M
19
R. Castillo
F
R. Castillo
F
Bench
25
Alisson
12'
M
Alisson
12'
M
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
9
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
12'
F
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
12'
F
90
K. Serna
8'
F
K. Serna
8'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
10
PH Ganso
M
PH Ganso
M
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
7
Y. Soteldo
12'
F
Y. Soteldo
12'
F
Best on the pitch
S. Villa
M · Independ.
7.50
1 shots
· 18 pass
L. Gómez
D · Independ.
7.30
1 👟
· 23 pass
John Kennedy
F · Fluminense
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
M. Fernández
M · Independ.
7.30
2 shots
· 25 pass
Alex Arce
F · Independ.
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 16 pass
D · Fluminense
7.30
· 99 pass
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 10% | — | — | — |
| L. Gómez | D | 82 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Studer | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| L. Costa | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Bonifacio | D | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| J. Florentín | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 19% | 2 | 1 | — |
| T. Bottari | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | 6 | 1 | — |
| S. Villa | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Sartori | M | 86 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Fernández | M | 86 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Alex Arce | F | 79 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 16 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Osella | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Ríos | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Villalba | D | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| J. Elordi | D | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Bucca | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 70% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 99 | 96% | — | — | — | |
| Ignacio | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 58 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 52% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 57% | — | 1 | — |
| Nonato | M | 78 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 48% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 31% | — | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 62 | 56% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Castillo | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 15 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Alisson | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 12 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| K. Serna | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | F | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?
The final score was Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Independ. Rivadavia win, 18% to a draw, and 15% to an Fluminense win.