LigaPro
· Regular Season - 11
April 25, 2026 23:10
✓Model correct — prediction Independiente del Valle
Matías Perello
(ast. Djorkaeff Reasco)
45'+1
Djorkaeff Reasco
48'
28'
(ast. Segundo Portocarrero)
Santiago Arrieta
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 59% win probability (draw 24%, Leones del Norte 16%). The final result was Independiente del Valle 2–1 Leones del Norte.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
7
8
Shots on target
5
3
Saves
6
62%
Possession
38%
5
Corners
5
10
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
26'
Ariel Aguas
28'
ast. Segundo Portocarrero ·
Santiago Arrieta⚽
31'
Leonel Nazareno
33'
Cristhian Solano
/
Santiago Arrieta
⚽Matías Perello
· ast. Djorkaeff Reasco
45'+1
45'+4
Jhegson Méndez
45'+9
45'+12
Matías Perello
/ Arón Rodríguez
46'
Andy Velasco
/ Mateo Carabajal
46'
⚽Djorkaeff Reasco
48'
53'
Martín Caramuto
/
Jorge Cabeza
53'
Elian Pepinos
/
Ariel Aguas
Jhon Espinoza
/ Daykol Romero
68'
Jhegson Méndez
/ Jordy Alcivar
68'
Emerson Pata
/ Darwin Guagua
85'
85'
Maiky De La Cruz
/
Dario Pazmino
85'
Nestor Caicedo
/
Cristhian Solano
90'+5
Juan Anangono
90'+7
Jonathan Arroyo
Pre-match prediction
59.14%
Independiente ←
24.42%
X
16.44%
Leones
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
59.14%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.80
—
—
0.42
—
—
Lineups
1
Aldair Quintana
G
Aldair Quintana
G
15
D
23
Juan Viacava
D
Juan Viacava
D
33
Andy Velasco
45'
D
Andy Velasco
45'
D
4
Jhon Espinoza
68'
D
Jhon Espinoza
68'
D
32
Jhegson Méndez
68'
M
Jhegson Méndez
68'
M
31
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
85'
M
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
85'
M
8
Youri Ochoa
M
Youri Ochoa
M
11
M. Perelló
1 ⚽
45'
M
M. Perelló
1 ⚽
45'
M
10
J. Sornoza
M
J. Sornoza
M
99
D. Reasco
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
D. Reasco
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
17
A. Rodríguez
45'
F
A. Rodríguez
45'
F
9
C. González
F
C. González
F
55
Darwin Guagua
13'
M
Darwin Guagua
13'
M
13
Daykol Romero
22'
D
Daykol Romero
22'
D
6
Jordy Alcivar
22'
M
Jordy Alcivar
22'
M
50
Juan Angulo
F
Juan Angulo
F
53
Justin Lerma
M
Justin Lerma
M
19
L. Loor
D
L. Loor
D
14
M. Carabajal
45'
D
16
Ronald Briones
M
Ronald Briones
M
45
Leonel Nazareno
G
34
Segundo Portocarrero
1 👟
D
2
Jordan Morán
D
23
Nicolás Monserrat
D
4
Jonathan Arroyo
D
32
Ariel Aguas
53'
D
70
Dario Pazmino
85'
M
8
C. Velez
M
13
J. Cabeza
53'
M
9
Santiago Arrieta
1 ⚽
33'
M
40
Juan Anangono
F
Bench
27
Caicedo Nestor
13'
F
99
Cristhian Solano
52'
M
19
Elian Pepinos
37'
M
11
Martín Caramuto
37'
M
5
T. Coppo
M
Best on the pitch
D. Reasco
F · Independiente
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 16 pass
Juan Viacava
D · Independiente
7.60
1 shots
· 87 pass
Leonel Nazareno
G · Leones
7.30
· 21 pass
A. Rodríguez
F · Independiente
7.20
1 shots
· 15 pass
Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
M · Independiente
7.20
2 shots
· 36 pass
Santiago Arrieta
M · Leones
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 2 pass
Independiente del Valle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldair Quintana | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 52% | 1 | — | — | |
| Juan Viacava | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 87 | 81% | — | — | — |
| Andy Velasco | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Jhon Espinoza | D | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Jhegson Méndez | M | 68 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez | M | 85 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Youri Ochoa | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 25 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Perelló | M | 45 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sornoza | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | — | — | — |
| D. Reasco | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Rodríguez | F | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Darwin Guagua | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Daykol Romero | D | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Jordy Alcivar | M | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| M. Carabajal | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
Leones del Norte — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonel Nazareno | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Segundo Portocarrero | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Jordan Morán | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolás Monserrat | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Jonathan Arroyo | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ariel Aguas | D | 53 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Dario Pazmino | M | 85 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Velez | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | — | — | — |
| J. Cabeza | M | 53 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Arrieta | M | 33 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Juan Anangono | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Caicedo Nestor | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Cristhian Solano | M | 52 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Elian Pepinos | M | 37 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Martín Caramuto | M | 37 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
The final score was Independiente del Valle 2–1 Leones del Norte.
What did the model predict before Independiente del Valle vs Leones del Norte?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Independiente del Valle win, 24% to a draw, and 16% to an Leones del Norte win.