Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 09, 2026 02:00
F. Chaverra
(ast. D. Catano)
63'
4'
(ast. M. Amondarain)
T. Palacios
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente Medellin a 38% win probability (draw 31%, Estudiantes L.P. 30%). The final result was Independiente Medellin 1–1 Estudiantes L.P..
Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
5
Shots on target
4
0.59
Actual xG
0.37
3
Saves
4
64%
Possession
36%
7
Corners
1
15
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
4'
ast. M. Amondarain ·
T. Palacios⚽
J. Montano
24'
24'
L. Piovi
36'
T. Palacios
D. Londono
37'
E. Mena Perea
/ D. Catano
46'
48'
T. Palacios
62'
J. Burgos
/
E. Cetre
62'
A. Castro
/
F. Farias
62'
A. Gaich
/
G. Carrillo
⚽F. Chaverra
· ast. D. Catano
63'
J. Montano
/ Yony Gonzalez
68'
82'
G. Benedetti
F. Fydriszewski
/ E. Larrosa
87'
90'
Gabriel Neves
/
M. Amondarain
90'
B. Aguirre
/
T. Palacios
90'
F. Muslera
Pre-match prediction
38.01%
Independiente
31.08%
X ←
30.91%
Estudiantes
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
31.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.09
0.59
-0.5
0.93
0.37
-0.56
xG dominance was balanced (0.59 – 0.37).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
E. Chaux
G
18
F. Fabra
D
F. Fabra
D
33
D. Londono
D
24
J. Ortiz
D
2
L. Chaverra
D
20
J. Montano
68'
M
8
A. Serna
M
14
B. Perlaza
M
26
E. Mena Perea
45'
M
19
F. Fydriszewski
87'
F
F. Fydriszewski
87'
F
13
F. Chaverra
1 ⚽
F
Bench
10
D. Catano
1 👟
45'
M
31
D. Moreno
M
9
E. Larrosa
11'
F
16
H. Loboa
M
30
H. Palacios
D
H. Palacios
D
5
L. Escorcia
D
11
Yony Gonzalez
22'
F
16
Fernando Muslera
G
Fernando Muslera
G
13
Gastón Benedetti
D
Gastón Benedetti
D
24
Tomás Palacios
D
Tomás Palacios
D
14
L. González
D
L. González
D
20
E. Meza
D
18
Edwuin Cetré
62'
M
Edwuin Cetré
62'
M
21
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
M
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
M
32
M. Amondarain
1 👟
89'
M
M. Amondarain
1 👟
89'
M
10
T. Palacios
1 ⚽
89'
M
T. Palacios
1 ⚽
89'
M
11
Facundo Farías
62'
F
Facundo Farías
62'
F
9
Guido Carrillo
62'
F
Guido Carrillo
62'
F
Bench
19
Adolfo Gaich
28'
F
Adolfo Gaich
28'
F
22
Alexis Castro
28'
M
Alexis Castro
28'
M
28
Brian Aguirre
8'
F
Brian Aguirre
8'
F
40
Eros Mancuso
D
Eros Mancuso
D
29
Fabricio Pérez
F
Fabricio Pérez
F
8
Gabriel Neves
9'
M
Gabriel Neves
9'
M
7
José Sosa
M
José Sosa
M
27
Lucas Alario
F
Lucas Alario
F
26
Ramiro Funes Mori
D
Ramiro Funes Mori
D
4
Santiago Núñez
D
Santiago Núñez
D
Best on the pitch
F. Chaverra
F · Independiente
8.20
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 28 pass
T. Palacios
M · Estudiantes
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 25 pass
Tomás Palacios
D · Estudiantes
7.30
· 23 pass
Fernando Muslera
G · Estudiantes
7.20
· 22 pass
E. Mena Perea
M · Independiente
7.20
· 13 pass
D. Catano
M · Independiente
7.20
1 👟
1 shots
· 27 pass
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chaux | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | — | — | — |
| F. Fabra | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 44% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Londono | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 54 | 46% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Ortiz | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | — | — | — |
| L. Chaverra | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Montano | M | 68 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 3 | 1 | — |
| A. Serna | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 52 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Perlaza | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Mena Perea | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Fydriszewski | F | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| F. Chaverra | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 5 | 28 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Catano | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 27 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Larrosa | F | 11 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Yony Gonzalez | F | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Estudiantes L.P. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Muslera | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Gastón Benedetti | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Tomás Palacios | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. González | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| E. Meza | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Edwuin Cetré | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ezequiel Piovi | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 89 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 18 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Palacios | M | 89 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Farías | F | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Guido Carrillo | F | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Adolfo Gaich | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexis Castro | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Brian Aguirre | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Neves | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The final score was Independiente Medellin 1–1 Estudiantes L.P..
What did the model predict before Independiente Medellin vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Independiente Medellin win, 31% to a draw, and 30% to an Estudiantes L.P. win.