Scottish Premiership · 1st Phase - 32 April 05, 2026 17:00

Livingston

#6 · 21 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Heart Of Midlothian

#1 · 70 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Heart Of Midlothian, result Pareggio

S. May 5'

L. Smith (ast. J. Nouble) 58'

24' (ast. M. Leonard) L. Shankland

51' (ast. L. Shankland) C. Braga

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Heart Of Midlothian a 57% win probability (draw 28%, Livingston 14%). The final result was Livingston 2–2 Heart Of Midlothian. In 2 previous meetings, Livingston have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Heart Of Midlothian.

Match statistics

8

Total shots

14

3

Shots on target

6

1.97

Actual xG

1.86

4

Saves

1

35%

Possession

65%

5

Corners

5

9

Tackles

11

2

🟨 Yellow cards

1

0

🟥 Red cards

1

Match Events

⚽S. May

5'

Lewis Smith

22'

24'

ast. M. Leonard · L. Shankland⚽

Scott Arfield

34'

45'

Oisin McEntee

51'

ast. L. Shankland · C. Braga⚽

⚽L. Smith · ast. J. Nouble

58'

↕ S. Arfield / S. Pittman

65'

↕ S. May / E. Danso

65'

77'

S. Kerjota / I. Chesnokov ↕

↕ C. Kerr / R. McGowan

78'

↕ J. Nouble / R. Muirhead

78'

84'

J. Altena / S. Kingsley ↕

↕ B. Fati / S. Lawal

87'

89'

B. Baningime / C. Devlin ↕

89'

B. Spittal / A. Kyziridis ↕

90'+6

90'+7

Marc Leonard

Pre-match prediction

14.52%

Livingston

28.09%

X ←

57.39%

Heart

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 28.09% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Livingston

0.52

1.97

+1.45

Heart

1.44

1.86

+0.42

xG dominance was balanced (1.97 – 1.86). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	70
1	Heart Of Midlothian	37	80
1	Dundee Utd	37	44
2	Rangers	33	69
2	Celtic	37	79
2	Aberdeen	37	40
3	Dundee	37	39
3	Celtic	33	67
3	Rangers	37	69
4	Motherwell	37	58
4	Kilmarnock	37	37
4	Motherwell	33	54
5	ST Mirren	37	33
5	Hibernian	33	51
5	Hibernian	37	57
6	Livingston	37	21
6	Falkirk	33	46
6	Falkirk	37	49
7	Dundee Utd	33	40
8	Aberdeen	33	33
9	Dundee	33	33
10	ST Mirren	33	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	28
12	Livingston	33	16

Lineups

Livingston 3-5-1-1

28

G 7.20

26 Cristian Montaño D 7.90

27 Danny Wilson D 6.50

19 Danny Finlayson D 6.90

3 Babacar Fati 87' M 6.60

17 Stevie May 1 ⚽ 65' M 7.30

24 Mohamad Sylla M 6.20

15 Lewis Smith 1 ⚽ M 7.70

2

78' M 6.90

37

S. Arfield 65' F 6.30

7

78' F 6.20

Bench

10 Barrie McKay M

9 Robbie Muirhead 19' F 6.60

8 Scott Pittman 32' F 6.30

Heart Of Midlothian 4-4-2

25

G 7.00

3 Stephen Kingsley 84' D 6.20

5

D 7.50

4

D 6.50

31

Oisin McEntee D 6.50

89 Alexandros Kyziridis 89' M 6.60

14 Cameron Devlin 89' M 7.90

49 Marc Leonard 1 👟 M 8.30

99 Islam Chesnokov 77' M 5.90

10 Cláudio Braga 1 ⚽ F 7.30

9 Lawrence Shankland 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 8.20

Bench

16 Blair Spittal 8' M 6.70

23 Jordi Altena 13' D 6.70

15 Michael Steinwender D

11 Pierre Landry Kaboré F

Best on the pitch

Marc Leonard

M · Heart

8.30

1 👟

· 76 pass

Lawrence Shankland

F · Heart

8.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

7 shots · 29 pass

Cristian Montaño

D · Livingston

7.90

1 shots · 29 pass

Cameron Devlin

M · Heart

7.90

· 75 pass

Lewis Smith

M · Livingston

7.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 29 pass

D · Heart

7.50

· 89 pass

Livingston — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	97	7.20	—	—	—	24	10%	—	—	—
Cristian Montaño	D	97	7.90	—	—	1	29	22%	—	—	—
Danny Wilson	D	97	6.50	—	—	—	25	19%	2	—	—
Danny Finlayson	D	97	6.90	—	—	—	38	32%	1	—	—
Babacar Fati	M	87	6.60	—	—	1	13	6%	—	—	—
Stevie May	M	65	7.30	1	—	1	14	10%	—	—	—
Mohamad Sylla	M	97	6.20	—	—	—	32	23%	2	—	—
Lewis Smith	M	97	7.70	1	—	1	29	24%	3	1	—
	M	78	6.90	—	—	1	21	15%	1	—	—
S. Arfield	F	65	6.30	—	—	1	26	20%	—	1	—
	F	78	6.20	—	—	1	11	9%	—	—	—
Robbie Muirhead	F	19	6.60	—	—	1	4	3%	—	—	—
Scott Pittman	F	32	6.30	—	—	—	7	6%	—	—	—

Heart Of Midlothian — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	97	7.00	—	—	—	17	16%	—	—	—
Stephen Kingsley	D	84	6.20	—	—	1	50	45%	—	—	—
	D	97	7.50	—	—	—	89	80%	—	—	—
	D	97	6.50	—	—	—	61	56%	—	—	—
Oisin McEntee	D	97	6.50	—	—	—	52	40%	—	1	—
Alexandros Kyziridis	M	89	6.60	—	—	1	34	29%	1	—	—
Cameron Devlin	M	89	7.90	—	—	—	75	72%	6	—	—
Marc Leonard	M	90	8.30	—	1	—	76	68%	2	—	1
Islam Chesnokov	M	77	5.90	—	—	1	18	17%	—	—	—
Cláudio Braga	F	97	7.30	1	—	4	26	16%	1	—	—
Lawrence Shankland	F	97	8.20	1	1	7	29	21%	1	—	—
Blair Spittal	M	8	6.70	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—
Jordi Altena	D	13	6.70	—	—	—	5	4%	—	—	—