First League · Championship Group - 31 April 25, 2026 14:15

Ludogorets

#2 · 64 pts

1 – 2

Final score

CSKA 1948

#3 · 59 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Ludogorets, result CSKA 1948 vince

Erick Marcus 18'

8' (ast. B. Tsonev) B. Sobrero

26' (ast. E. Franco) M. Diallo

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ludogorets a 62% win probability (draw 15%, CSKA 1948 21%). The final result was Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA 1948. In 2 previous meetings, Ludogorets have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for CSKA 1948.

Match statistics

2

Shots on target

5

1.78

Actual xG

1.34

72%

Possession

28%

10

Corners

3

Match Events

8'

ast. B. Tsonev · B. Sobrero⚽

⚽Erick Marcus

18'

↕ E. Kurtulus / I. Nachmias

19'

26'

ast. E. Franco · M. Diallo⚽

40'

Vinicius Nogueira

49'

49'

F. Krebs

62'

B. Tsonev

↕ D. Duarte / F. Kaloc

68'

↕ Rwan Cruz / I. Chochev

68'

↕ Son / A. Nedyalkov

68'

74'

A. Hoffmann / P. Vitanov ↕

74'

M. Boychev / B. Sobrero ↕

75'

D. Grivic

78'

A. Iliev / M. Diallo ↕

84'

G. Rusev / B. Tsonev ↕

↕ Erick Marcus / B. Tekpetey

84'

90'+4

A. Iliev

Pre-match prediction

62.96%

Ludogorets

15.83%

X

21.21%

CSKA ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (CSKA 1948) 21.21% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Ludogorets

3.69

1.78

-1.91

CSKA

2.16

1.34

-0.83

Ludogorets dominated by xG (1.78 vs 1.34). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	30	70
1	Levski Sofia	34	77
2	Ludogorets	34	64
2	Ludogorets	30	60
3	CSKA 1948	30	59
3	CSKA Sofia	34	63
4	CSKA Sofia	30	56
4	CSKA 1948	34	63
5	Cherno More Varna	34	54
5	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	30	46
6	Cherno More Varna	30	44
6	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	34	52
7	Arda Kardzhali	30	44
7	Arda Kardzhali	34	48
8	Botev Plovdiv	34	43
8	Botev Plovdiv	30	40
9	Slavia Sofia	30	39
9	Botev Vratsa	35	47
10	Lokomotiv Sofia	35	44
10	Botev Vratsa	30	38
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	30	37
11	Slavia Sofia	35	43
12	Spartak Varna	30	27
12	Beroe	35	34
13	Dobrudzha	30	26
13	Septemvri Sofia	35	32
14	Septemvri Sofia	30	26
14	Spartak Varna	35	31
15	Beroe	30	23
15	Dobrudzha	35	30
16	Montana	30	17
16	Montana	35	23

Lineups

Ludogorets 4-4-2

39

Hendrik Bonmann G

27

Vinicius Nogueira D

15

E. Kurtulus D

4

Dinis Almeida D

17

Son D

14 P. Stanić M

30

Pedro Naressi M

23

Deroy Duarte M

77 Erick Marcus 1 ⚽ M

9

F

12

Rwan Cruz F

Bench

3

Anton Nedyalkov D

37 B. Tekpetey M

26

Filip Kaloč M

18 I. Chochev M

CSKA 1948 4-4-2

13

G

22

O. Gasevic D

21

Lasha Dvali D

88

Adama Ardile Traoré D

96

Dragan Grivić D

20

M

34

Petar Vitanov M

10 B. Tsonev 1 👟 M

23

Florian Krebs M

77

Elias Franco 1 👟 M

93

F

Bench

9

Atanas Iliev F

Ludogorets — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Hendrik Bonmann	G	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Vinicius Nogueira	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Kurtulus	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dinis Almeida	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Son	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
P. Stanić	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Pedro Naressi	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Deroy Duarte	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Erick Marcus	M	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
	F	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rwan Cruz	F	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

CSKA 1948 — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
O. Gasevic	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Lasha Dvali	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Adama Ardile Traoré	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dragan Grivić	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Petar Vitanov	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
B. Tsonev	M	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
Florian Krebs	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Elias Franco	M	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
	F	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—