First League · Championship Group - 31 April 25, 2026 12:15 Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

Ludogorets

#3 · 23 pts

1 – 2

Final score

CSKA 1948

#4 · 22 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Ludogorets, result CSKA 1948 wins

Erick Marcus 18'

8' (ast. B. Tsonev) B. Sobrero

26' (ast. E. Franco) M. Diallo

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ludogorets a 62% win probability (draw 15%, CSKA 1948 21%). The final result was Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA 1948. In 3 previous meetings, Ludogorets have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for CSKA 1948.

Match statistics

2

Shots on target

5

1.78

Actual xG

1.34

72%

Possession

28%

10

Corners

3

Match Events

8'

ast. B. Tsonev · B. Sobrero⚽

⚽Erick Marcus

18'

↕ E. Kurtulus / I. Nachmias

19'

26'

ast. E. Franco · M. Diallo⚽

40'

Vinicius Nogueira

49'

49'

F. Krebs

62'

B. Tsonev

↕ D. Duarte / F. Kaloc

68'

↕ Rwan Cruz / I. Chochev

68'

↕ Son / A. Nedyalkov

68'

74'

A. Hoffmann / P. Vitanov ↕

74'

M. Boychev / B. Sobrero ↕

75'

D. Grivic

78'

A. Iliev / M. Diallo ↕

84'

G. Rusev / B. Tsonev ↕

↕ Erick Marcus / B. Tekpetey

84'

90'+4

A. Iliev

Pre-match prediction

62.96%

Ludogorets

15.83%

X

21.21%

CSKA ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (CSKA 1948) 21.21% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Ludogorets

3.69

1.78

-1.91

CSKA

2.16

1.34

-0.83

Ludogorets dominated by xG (1.78 vs 1.34). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	24
3	Ludogorets	9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	5

Lineups

Ludogorets 4-4-2

39

H. Bonmann G

27 Vinícius Nogueira D

15

E. Kurtulus D

4

Dinis Almeida D

17

Son D

14

P. Stanić M

30 Pedro Naressi M

23 Deroy Duarte M

77

Erick Marcus 1 ⚽ M

9

F

12

Rwan Cruz F

Bench

3

A. Nedyalkov D

37

B. Tekpetey M

26

F. Kaloč M

18

I. Chochev M

CSKA 1948 4-4-2

13

G

22 O. Gašević D

21 L. Dvali D

88

Adama Ardile Traoré D

96

D. Grivić D

20

M

34

P. Vitanov M

10 B. Tsonev 1 👟 M

23

F. Krebs M

77

Elias Franco 1 👟 M

93

F

Bench

9

A. Iliev F

Ludogorets — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
H. Bonmann	G	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Vinícius Nogueira	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Kurtulus	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dinis Almeida	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Son	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
P. Stanić	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Pedro Naressi	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Deroy Duarte	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Erick Marcus	M	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
	F	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rwan Cruz	F	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

CSKA 1948 — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
O. Gašević	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
L. Dvali	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Adama Ardile Traoré	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
D. Grivić	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
P. Vitanov	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
B. Tsonev	M	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
F. Krebs	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Elias Franco	M	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
	F	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—