Premier League
· Regular Season - 33
April 19, 2026 19:30
R. Cherki
(ast. M. Nunes)
16'
E. Haaland
65'
18'
K. Havertz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Arsenal 26%). The final result was Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal. In 2 previous meetings, Manchester City have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
3
1.41
Actual xG
1.53
1
Saves
2
59%
Possession
41%
8
Corners
5
11
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽R. Cherki
· ast. M. Nunes
16'
18'
K. Havertz⚽
36'
C. Mosquera
46'
G. Martinelli
/
N. Madueke
M. Guehi
60'
⚽E. Haaland
65'
74'
L. Trossard
/
E. Eze
74'
B. White
/
C. Mosquera
83'
Gabriel
E. Haaland
83'
P. Guardiola
84'
84'
V. Gyokeres
/
M. Zubimendi
R. Cherki
/ P. Foden
85'
J. Doku
/ Savinho
88'
Rodri
/ Nico
88'
A. Semenyo
/ N. Ake
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
51.72%
Manchester ←
22.24%
X
26.05%
Arsenal
we assigned to the actual result (Manchester City)
51.72%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.28
1.41
-0.87
1.53
1.53
+-0.0
xG dominance was balanced (1.41 – 1.53).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
33
Nico O'Reilly
D
15
M. Guéhi
D
M. Guéhi
D
45
D
27
Matheus Nunes
1 👟
D
Matheus Nunes
1 👟
D
16
Rodri
88'
M
Rodri
88'
M
20
Bernardo Silva
M
Bernardo Silva
M
11
Jérémy Doku
88'
M
Jérémy Doku
88'
M
10
Rayan Cherki
1 ⚽
85'
M
Rayan Cherki
1 ⚽
85'
M
42
Antoine Semenyo
89'
M
Antoine Semenyo
89'
M
9
Erling Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Erling Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Bench
6
Nathan Aké
1'
D
Nathan Aké
1'
D
14
Nico
10'
M
7
Omar Marmoush
F
Omar Marmoush
F
47
Phil Foden
13'
M
Phil Foden
13'
M
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
D
Rayan Aït-Nouri
D
4
Tijjani Reijnders
M
Tijjani Reijnders
M
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
5
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
3
Cristhian Mosquera
74'
D
Cristhian Mosquera
74'
D
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
36
Martín Zubimendi
84'
M
Martín Zubimendi
84'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
M
M. Ødegaard
M
10
Eberechi Eze
74'
F
Eberechi Eze
74'
F
29
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
F
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
F
20
Noni Madueke
45'
F
Noni Madueke
45'
F
Bench
4
Ben White
16'
D
Ben White
16'
D
16
C. Norgaard
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
45'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
45'
F
19
L. Trossard
16'
F
L. Trossard
16'
F
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
D
Myles Lewis-Skelly
D
14
V. Gyökeres
14'
F
V. Gyökeres
14'
F
Best on the pitch
Rayan Cherki
M · Manchester
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 46 pass
Nico O'Reilly
D · Manchester
8.30
· 47 pass
Rodri
M · Manchester
7.70
· 66 pass
Erling Haaland
F · Manchester
7.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 13 pass
Jérémy Doku
M · Manchester
7.50
2 shots
· 40 pass
K. Havertz
F · Arsenal
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 17 pass
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 47 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 61% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 39% | 1 | — | — | |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 33 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 88 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 66 | 61% | 2 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 53% | 3 | — | — |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 88 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan Cherki | M | 85 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 46 | 38% | — | — | — |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Erling Haaland | F | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 13 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Nathan Aké | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Phil Foden | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 14% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 2 | — | — | |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 2 | — | — | |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D. Rice | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 52 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Eberechi Eze | F | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Noni Madueke | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Ben White | D | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Trossard | F | 16 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Arsenal?
The final score was Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Manchester City vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Manchester City win, 22% to a draw, and 26% to an Arsenal win.