R. Cherki
(ast. M. Nunes)
16'
E. Haaland
65'
18'
K. Havertz
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Arsenal 26%). The final result was Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal. In 3 previous meetings, Manchester City have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
3
1.41
Actual xG
1.53
1
Saves
2
59%
Possession
41%
8
Corners
5
11
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽R. Cherki
· ast. M. Nunes
16'
18'
K. Havertz⚽
36'
C. Mosquera
46'
G. Martinelli
/
N. Madueke
M. Guehi
60'
⚽E. Haaland
65'
74'
L. Trossard
/
E. Eze
74'
B. White
/
C. Mosquera
83'
Gabriel
E. Haaland
83'
P. Guardiola
84'
84'
V. Gyokeres
/
M. Zubimendi
R. Cherki
/ P. Foden
85'
J. Doku
/ Savinho
88'
Rodri
/ Nico
88'
A. Semenyo
/ N. Ake
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
51.72%
Manchester ←
22.24%
X
26.05%
Arsenal
we assigned to the actual result (Manchester City)
51.72%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.28
1.41
-0.87
1.53
1.53
+-0.0
xG dominance was balanced (1.41 – 1.53).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G. Donnarumma
G
G. Donnarumma
G
33
N. O'Reilly
D
N. O'Reilly
D
15
M. Guéhi
D
M. Guéhi
D
45
D
27
Matheus Nunes
1 👟
D
Matheus Nunes
1 👟
D
16
Rodri
88'
M
Rodri
88'
M
20
Bernardo Silva
M
Bernardo Silva
M
11
J. Doku
88'
M
J. Doku
88'
M
10
R. Cherki
1 ⚽
85'
M
R. Cherki
1 ⚽
85'
M
42
A. Semenyo
89'
M
A. Semenyo
89'
M
9
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
E. Haaland
1 ⚽
F
Bench
6
N. Aké
1'
D
N. Aké
1'
D
14
Nico González
10'
M
Nico González
10'
M
7
Omar Marmoush
F
Omar Marmoush
F
47
P. Foden
13'
M
P. Foden
13'
M
21
R. Aït-Nouri
D
R. Aït-Nouri
D
4
T. Reijnders
M
T. Reijnders
M
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
5
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
3
Cristhian Mosquera
74'
D
Cristhian Mosquera
74'
D
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
36
Martín Zubimendi
84'
M
Martín Zubimendi
84'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
M
M. Ødegaard
M
10
E. Eze
74'
F
E. Eze
74'
F
29
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
F
K. Havertz
1 ⚽
F
20
N. Madueke
45'
F
N. Madueke
45'
F
Bench
4
B. White
16'
D
B. White
16'
D
16
C. Nørgaard
M
C. Nørgaard
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
45'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
45'
F
19
Leandro Trossard
16'
F
Leandro Trossard
16'
F
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
14
V. Gyökeres
14'
F
V. Gyökeres
14'
F
Best on the pitch
R. Cherki
M · Manchester
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 46 pass
N. O'Reilly
D · Manchester
8.30
· 47 pass
Rodri
M · Manchester
7.70
· 66 pass
E. Haaland
F · Manchester
7.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 13 pass
J. Doku
M · Manchester
7.50
2 shots
· 40 pass
K. Havertz
F · Arsenal
7.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 17 pass
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Donnarumma | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 34% | — | — | — |
| N. O'Reilly | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 47 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 61% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 39% | 1 | — | — | |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 33 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 88 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 66 | 61% | 2 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 53% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 88 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 40 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Cherki | M | 85 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 46 | 38% | — | — | — |
| A. Semenyo | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Haaland | F | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 13 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| N. Aké | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico González | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| P. Foden | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 14% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 2 | — | — | |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 2 | — | — | |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D. Rice | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 84 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 52 | 41% | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | F | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| N. Madueke | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| B. White | D | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Leandro Trossard | F | 16 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Arsenal?
The final score was Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Manchester City vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Manchester City win, 22% to a draw, and 26% to an Arsenal win.