Premier League · Regular Season - 32 April 13, 2026 23:00

Manchester United

#3 · 65 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Leeds

#14 · 44 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Manchester United, result Leeds vince

Casemiro (ast. B. Fernandes) 69'

5' N. Okafor

29' (ast. B. Aaronson) N. Okafor

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester United a 61% win probability (draw 21%, Leeds 17%). The final result was Manchester United 1–2 Leeds. In 1 previous meetings, Manchester United have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Leeds.

Match statistics

14

Total shots

9

9

Shots on target

6

1.47

Actual xG

2.37

3

Saves

6

52%

Possession

48%

11

Corners

4

18

Tackles

12

3

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

5'

N. Okafor⚽

Matheus Cunha

18'

29'

ast. B. Aaronson · N. Okafor⚽

39'

James Justin

Luke Shaw

49'

55'

Lisandro Martínez

56'

Bruno Fernandes

64'

⚽Casemiro · ast. B. Fernandes

69'

↕ N. Mazraoui / D. Dalot

70'

↕ A. Diallo / B. Mbeumo

70'

74'

I. Gruev / A. Tanaka ↕

74'

W. Gnonto / N. Okafor ↕

86'

Ethan Ampadu

86'

S. Longstaff / B. Aaronson ↕

Pre-match prediction

61.31%

Manchester

21.45%

X

17.24%

Leeds ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Leeds) 17.24% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Manchester

2.10

1.47

-0.63

Leeds

0.79

2.37

+1.58

Leeds dominated by xG (2.37 vs 1.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Arsenal	36	79
2	Manchester City	36	77
3	Manchester United	36	65
4	Liverpool	36	59
5	Aston Villa	36	59
6	Bournemouth	36	55
7	Brighton	36	53
8	Brentford	36	51
9	Chelsea	36	49
10	Everton	36	49
11	Fulham	36	48
12	Sunderland	36	48
13	Newcastle	36	46
14	Leeds	36	44
15	Crystal Palace	36	44
16	Nottingham Forest	36	43
17	Tottenham	36	38
18	West Ham	36	36
19	Burnley	36	21
20	Wolves	36	18

Lineups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

31

G 7.20

23

L. Shaw D 6.90

6

Lisandro Martínez 56' D 7.00

15

D 7.90

3

N. Mazraoui 70' D 6.20

25

M 7.20

18 Casemiro 1 ⚽ M 7.90

10

Matheus Cunha M 6.30

8 Bruno Fernandes 1 👟 M 8.00

16 A. Diallo 70' M 6.30

30 B. Šeško F 6.60

Bench

19 B. Mbeumo 28' F 6.60

2

D. Dalot 28' D 6.90

11

J. Zirkzee F

7

Mason Mount M

Leeds 3-4-2-1

26

G 8.20

5 Pascal Struijk D 7.20

15 Jaka Bijol D 7.00

24 James Justin D 7.20

3

G. Gudmundsson M 7.70

22 Ao Tanaka 74' M 7.60

4 E. Ampadu M 7.20

2

Jayden Bogle M 7.60

19

Noah Okafor 2 ⚽ 74' F 8.90

11 B. Aaronson 1 👟 86' F 6.20

9 D. Calvert-Lewin F 6.30

Bench

14 Lukas Nmecha F

8 Sean Longstaff 12' M 6.70

Best on the pitch

Noah Okafor

F · Leeds

8.90

2 ⚽

2 shots · 20 pass

G · Leeds

8.20

· 37 pass

Bruno Fernandes

M · Manchester

8.00

1 👟

· 66 pass

D · Manchester

7.90

2 shots · 64 pass

Casemiro

M · Manchester

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 54 pass

G. Gudmundsson

M · Leeds

7.70

· 41 pass

Manchester United — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	98	7.20	—	—	—	24	18%	—	—	—
L. Shaw	D	98	6.90	—	—	—	53	47%	2	1	—
Lisandro Martínez	D	56	7.00	—	—	—	55	50%	1	—	1
	D	98	7.90	—	—	2	64	56%	—	—	—
N. Mazraoui	D	70	6.20	—	—	1	31	25%	4	—	—
	M	98	7.20	—	—	—	52	45%	3	—	—
Casemiro	M	98	7.90	1	—	2	54	43%	—	—	—
Matheus Cunha	M	98	6.30	—	—	3	28	24%	2	1	—
Bruno Fernandes	M	98	8.00	—	1	—	66	50%	2	1	—
A. Diallo	M	70	6.30	—	—	2	18	16%	2	—	—
B. Šeško	F	98	6.60	—	—	3	14	9%	—	—	—
B. Mbeumo	F	28	6.60	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
D. Dalot	D	28	6.90	—	—	1	11	11%	2	—	—

Leeds — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	98	8.20	—	—	—	37	21%	—	—	—
Pascal Struijk	D	98	7.20	—	—	1	46	45%	1	—	—
Jaka Bijol	D	98	7.00	—	—	1	37	30%	2	—	—
James Justin	D	98	7.20	—	—	—	39	34%	—	1	—
G. Gudmundsson	M	98	7.70	—	—	—	41	32%	2	—	—
Ao Tanaka	M	74	7.60	—	—	1	51	42%	2	—	—
E. Ampadu	M	98	7.20	—	—	—	50	46%	2	1	—
Jayden Bogle	M	98	7.60	—	—	—	35	29%	2	—	—
Noah Okafor	F	74	8.90	2	—	2	20	16%	—	—	—
B. Aaronson	F	86	6.20	—	1	—	31	28%	1	—	—
D. Calvert-Lewin	F	98	6.30	—	—	4	25	15%	—	—	—
Sean Longstaff	M	12	6.70	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—