Premier League · Regular Season - 32 April 13, 2026 21:00 Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United

#16 · 7 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Leeds

#7 · 11 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Manchester United, result Leeds wins

Casemiro (ast. B. Fernandes) 69'

5' N. Okafor

29' (ast. B. Aaronson) N. Okafor

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester United a 61% win probability (draw 21%, Leeds 17%). The final result was Manchester United 1–2 Leeds. In 3 previous meetings, Manchester United have won 0 times, with 3 draws and 0 wins for Leeds.

Match statistics

14

Total shots

9

9

Shots on target

6

1.47

Actual xG

2.37

3

Saves

6

52%

Possession

48%

11

Corners

4

18

Tackles

12

3

🟨 Yellow cards

2

1

🟥 Red cards

0

Match Events

5'

N. Okafor⚽

Matheus Cunha

18'

29'

ast. B. Aaronson · N. Okafor⚽

39'

James Justin

Luke Shaw

49'

55'

Lisandro Martínez

56'

Bruno Fernandes

64'

⚽Casemiro · ast. B. Fernandes

69'

↕ N. Mazraoui / D. Dalot

70'

↕ A. Diallo / B. Mbeumo

70'

74'

I. Gruev / A. Tanaka ↕

74'

W. Gnonto / N. Okafor ↕

86'

Ethan Ampadu

86'

S. Longstaff / B. Aaronson ↕

Pre-match prediction

61.31%

Manchester

21.45%

X

17.24%

Leeds ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Leeds) 17.24% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Manchester

2.10

1.47

-0.63

Leeds

0.79

2.37

+1.58

Leeds dominated by xG (2.37 vs 1.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	8	21
2	Arsenal	8	21
3	Brighton	8	16
4	Liverpool	8	15
5	Chelsea	8	13
6	Brentford	8	11
7	Leeds	8	11
8	Newcastle	8	11
9	Aston Villa	8	11
10	Hull City	8	10
11	Everton	8	10
12	Ipswich	8	10
13	Bournemouth	8	9
14	Tottenham	8	9
15	Fulham	8	8
16	Manchester United	8	7
17	Crystal Palace	8	7
18	Nottingham Forest	8	6
19	Coventry	8	6
20	Sunderland	8	5

Lineups

Manchester United 4-2-3-1

31

G 7.20

23 L. Shaw D 6.90

6 Lisandro Martínez 56' D 7.00

15

D 7.90

3 N. Mazraoui 70' D 6.20

25

M 7.20

18 Casemiro 1 ⚽ M 7.90

10 Matheus Cunha M 6.30

8 Bruno Fernandes 1 👟 M 8.00

16 A. Diallo 70' M 6.30

30 B. Šeško F 6.60

Bench

19 B. Mbeumo 28' F 6.60

2 Diogo Dalot 28' D 6.90

11 J. Zirkzee F

7 M. Mount M

Leeds 3-4-2-1

26

G 8.20

5 P. Struijk D 7.20

15 J. Bijol D 7.00

24 J. Justin D 7.20

3 G. Gudmundsson M 7.70

22 A. Tanaka 74' M 7.60

4 E. Ampadu M 7.20

2 J. Bogle M 7.60

19 N. Okafor 2 ⚽ 74' F 8.90

11 B. Aaronson 1 👟 86' F 6.20

9 D. Calvert-Lewin F 6.30

Bench

14 L. Nmecha F

8 S. Longstaff 12' M 6.70

Best on the pitch

N. Okafor

F · Leeds

8.90

2 ⚽

2 shots · 20 pass

G · Leeds

8.20

· 37 pass

Bruno Fernandes

M · Manchester

8.00

1 👟

· 66 pass

D · Manchester

7.90

2 shots · 64 pass

Casemiro

M · Manchester

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 54 pass

G. Gudmundsson

M · Leeds

7.70

· 41 pass

Manchester United — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	98	7.20	—	—	—	24	18%	—	—	—
L. Shaw	D	98	6.90	—	—	—	53	47%	2	1	—
Lisandro Martínez	D	56	7.00	—	—	—	55	50%	1	—	1
	D	98	7.90	—	—	2	64	56%	—	—	—
N. Mazraoui	D	70	6.20	—	—	1	31	25%	4	—	—
	M	98	7.20	—	—	—	52	45%	3	—	—
Casemiro	M	98	7.90	1	—	2	54	43%	—	—	—
Matheus Cunha	M	98	6.30	—	—	3	28	24%	2	1	—
Bruno Fernandes	M	98	8.00	—	1	—	66	50%	2	1	—
A. Diallo	M	70	6.30	—	—	2	18	16%	2	—	—
B. Šeško	F	98	6.60	—	—	3	14	9%	—	—	—
B. Mbeumo	F	28	6.60	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
Diogo Dalot	D	28	6.90	—	—	1	11	11%	2	—	—

Leeds — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	98	8.20	—	—	—	37	21%	—	—	—
P. Struijk	D	98	7.20	—	—	1	46	45%	1	—	—
J. Bijol	D	98	7.00	—	—	1	37	30%	2	—	—
J. Justin	D	98	7.20	—	—	—	39	34%	—	1	—
G. Gudmundsson	M	98	7.70	—	—	—	41	32%	2	—	—
A. Tanaka	M	74	7.60	—	—	1	51	42%	2	—	—
E. Ampadu	M	98	7.20	—	—	—	50	46%	2	1	—
J. Bogle	M	98	7.60	—	—	—	35	29%	2	—	—
N. Okafor	F	74	8.90	2	—	2	20	16%	—	—	—
B. Aaronson	F	86	6.20	—	1	—	31	28%	1	—	—
D. Calvert-Lewin	F	98	6.30	—	—	4	25	15%	—	—	—
S. Longstaff	M	12	6.70	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—