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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 29 April 10, 2026 21:05
Marseille
#6 · 56 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Metz
#18 · 16 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Marseille
P. Aubameyang (ast. M. Greenwood) 13'
I. Paixao (ast. M. Greenwood) 48'
H. J. Traore (ast. A. Gouiri) 90'
49' (ast. G. Hein) G. Tsitaishvili

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Marseille a 67% win probability (draw 20%, Metz 11%). The final result was Marseille 3–1 Metz. In 1 previous meetings, Marseille have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Metz.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.55
Actual xG
0.48
1
Saves
6
54%
Possession
46%
7
Corners
4
13
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽P. Aubameyang · ast. M. Greenwood
13'
Facundo Medina
45'+2
⚽I. Paixao · ast. M. Greenwood
48'
49'
ast. G. Hein · G. Tsitaishvili⚽
56'
Maxime Colin
↕ P. Aubameyang / A. Vermeeren
72'
81'
N. Mbala / J. Deminguet ↕
↕ Q. Timber / T. Nnadi
82'
↕ M. Greenwood / H. J. Traore
82'
82'
F. Ballo-Toure / M. Colin ↕
84'
Koffi Kouao
87'
L. Michal / A. Toure ↕
↕ I. Paixao / H. Abdelli
90'+1
⚽H. J. Traore · ast. A. Gouiri
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.98%
Marseille ←
20.86%
X
11.16%
Metz
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Marseille) 67.98% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Marseille
1.94
3.55
+1.61
Metz
0.73
0.48
-0.25
Marseille dominated by xG (3.55 vs 0.48). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 33 76
1 Rodez Rodez 1 3
2 Lens Lens 33 67
2 RED Star FC 93 RED Star FC 93 1 0
3 Lille Lille 33 61
4 Lyon Lyon 33 60
5 Rennes Rennes 33 59
6 Marseille Marseille 33 56
7 Monaco Monaco 33 54
8 Strasbourg Strasbourg 33 50
9 Lorient Lorient 33 45
10 Toulouse Toulouse 33 44
11 Paris FC Paris FC 33 41
12 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 33 38
13 Angers Angers 33 35
14 Le Havre Le Havre 33 32
15 Auxerre Auxerre 33 31
16 Nice Nice 33 31
17 Nantes Nantes 33 23
18 Metz Metz 33 16
Lineups
Marseille Marseille 3-4-2-1
1 Gerónimo Rulli Gerónimo Rulli G 6.20
32 Facundo Medina Facundo Medina D 7.00
5 Leonardo Balerdi Leonardo Balerdi D 7.30
28 Benjamin Pavard Benjamin Pavard D 7.20
14 Igor Paixão Igor Paixão 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.00
27 Quinten Timber Quinten Timber 82' M 6.70
23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M 7.00
22
Timothy Weah M 6.30
9 A. Gouiri A. Gouiri 1 👟 F 7.60
10 M. Greenwood M. Greenwood 2 👟 82' F 8.20
17 P. Aubameyang P. Aubameyang 1 ⚽ 72' F 7.30
Bench
78 Ange Lago Ange Lago F
18 Arthur Vermeeren Arthur Vermeeren 18' M 7.00
26
Bilal Nadir M
33 Emerson Emerson D
11 Ethan Nwaneri Ethan Nwaneri M
8
H. Abdelli 1' M
20
Hamed Junior Traorè 1 ⚽ 8' M 7.30
6 Tochukwu Nnadi Tochukwu Nnadi 8' M 6.60
Metz Metz 4-2-3-1
61
G 7.60
2 Maxime Colin Maxime Colin 82' D 6.30
5 Jean-Philippe Gbamin Jean-Philippe Gbamin D 5.30
38 Sadibou Sané Sadibou Sané D 6.70
39 K. Kouao K. Kouao D 5.90
12 Alpha Touré Alpha Touré 87' M 6.90
20 Jessy Deminguet Jessy Deminguet 81' M 6.70
7 Giorgi Tsitaishvili Giorgi Tsitaishvili 1 ⚽ M 7.30
10 G. Hein G. Hein 1 👟 M 6.20
70 Bouna Sarr Bouna Sarr M 7.00
30 Habibou Diallo Habibou Diallo F 6.30
Bench
21 Benjamin Stambouli Benjamin Stambouli M
97 Fodé Ballo-Touré Fodé Ballo-Touré 8' D 6.20
9 Giorgi Abuashvili Giorgi Abuashvili F
11 Giorgi Kvilitaia Giorgi Kvilitaia F
19
L. Michal 3' F
34 Nathan Mbala Nathan Mbala 9' F 6.20
15 Terry Yegbe Terry Yegbe D
4 Urie-Michel Mboula Urie-Michel Mboula D
Best on the pitch
M. Greenwood
M. Greenwood
F · Marseille
8.20
2 👟
5 shots · 38 pass
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão
M · Marseille
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 37 pass
G · Metz
7.60
· 26 pass
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
F · Marseille
7.60
1 👟
2 shots · 30 pass
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi
D · Marseille
7.30
1 shots · 67 pass
Hamed Junior Traorè
M · Marseille
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 3 pass
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Gerónimo Rulli G 90 6.20 — — — 21 20% — — —
Facundo Medina D 90 7.00 — — — 66 56% 1 1 —
Leonardo Balerdi D 90 7.30 — — 1 67 59% 1 — —
Benjamin Pavard D 90 7.20 — — 1 60 54% 4 — —
Igor Paixão M 89 8.00 1 — 2 37 33% — — —
Quinten Timber M 82 6.70 — — 1 29 23% 2 — —
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M 90 7.00 — — — 73 64% 1 — —
Timothy Weah M 90 6.30 — — — 29 21% 2 — —
A. Gouiri F 90 7.60 — 1 2 30 25% — — —
M. Greenwood F 82 8.20 — 2 5 38 32% — — —
P. Aubameyang F 72 7.30 1 — 4 19 16% — — —
Arthur Vermeeren M 18 7.00 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
H. Abdelli M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Hamed Junior Traorè M 8 7.30 1 — 2 3 3% — — —
Tochukwu Nnadi M 8 6.60 — — — 3 3% 1 — —
Metz Metz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.60 — — — 26 16% — — —
Maxime Colin D 82 6.30 — — — 39 37% 1 1 —
Jean-Philippe Gbamin D 90 5.30 — — — 70 56% 1 — —
Sadibou Sané D 90 6.70 — — — 43 35% 2 — —
K. Kouao D 90 5.90 — — — 34 30% 2 1 —
Alpha Touré M 87 6.90 — — — 57 50% 1 — —
Jessy Deminguet M 81 6.70 — — 1 25 24% 2 — —
Giorgi Tsitaishvili M 90 7.30 1 — 1 23 17% 1 — —
G. Hein M 90 6.20 — 1 2 57 51% 1 — —
Bouna Sarr M 90 7.00 — — — 25 22% 1 — —
Habibou Diallo F 90 6.30 — — — 18 14% — — —
Fodé Ballo-Touré D 8 6.20 — — — 5 3% — — —
L. Michal F 3 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Nathan Mbala F 9 6.20 — — 1 3 — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Marseille vs Metz?
The final score was Marseille 3–1 Metz.
What did the model predict before Marseille vs Metz?
The model assigned 67% probability to a Marseille win, 20% to a draw, and 11% to an Metz win.