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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 29 April 10, 2026 21:05 Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
Marseille
#11 · 3 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Metz
✓Model correct — prediction Marseille
P. Aubameyang (ast. M. Greenwood) 13'
I. Paixao (ast. M. Greenwood) 48'
H. J. Traore (ast. A. Gouiri) 90'
49' (ast. G. Hein) G. Tsitaishvili
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Marseille a 67% win probability (draw 20%, Metz 11%). The final result was Marseille 3–1 Metz. In 1 previous meetings, Marseille have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Metz.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.55
Actual xG
0.48
1
Saves
6
54%
Possession
46%
7
Corners
4
13
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽P. Aubameyang · ast. M. Greenwood
13'
Facundo Medina
45'+2
⚽I. Paixao · ast. M. Greenwood
48'
49'
ast. G. Hein · G. Tsitaishvili⚽
56'
Maxime Colin
↕ P. Aubameyang / A. Vermeeren
72'
81'
N. Mbala / J. Deminguet ↕
↕ Q. Timber / T. Nnadi
82'
↕ M. Greenwood / H. J. Traore
82'
82'
F. Ballo-Toure / M. Colin ↕
84'
Koffi Kouao
87'
L. Michal / A. Toure ↕
↕ I. Paixao / H. Abdelli
90'+1
⚽H. J. Traore · ast. A. Gouiri
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.98%
Marseille ←
20.86%
X
11.16%
Metz
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Marseille) 67.98% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Marseille
1.94
3.55
+1.61
Metz
0.73
0.48
-0.25
Marseille dominated by xG (3.55 vs 0.48). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Monaco Monaco 4 10
2 Rennes Rennes 4 10
3 Paris FC Paris FC 3 7
4 Lyon Lyon 3 7
5 Lille Lille 3 7
6 Strasbourg Strasbourg 4 7
7 Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 29 3 5
8 Lorient Lorient 3 4
9 Estac Troyes Estac Troyes 3 4
10 Lens Lens 3 3
11 Marseille Marseille 4 3
12 Angers Angers 3 3
13 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 3 2
14 Le Mans Le Mans 3 2
15 Nice Nice 3 2
16 Le Havre Le Havre 3 1
17 Toulouse Toulouse 3 1
18 Auxerre Auxerre 3 0
Lineups
Marseille Marseille 3-4-2-1
1 G. Rulli G. Rulli G 6.20
32 F. Medina F. Medina D 7.00
5 L. Balerdi L. Balerdi D 7.30
28 B. Pavard B. Pavard D 7.20
14 Igor Paixão Igor Paixão 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.00
27 Q. Timber Q. Timber 82' M 6.70
23 P. Højbjerg P. Højbjerg M 7.00
22 T. Weah T. Weah M 6.30
9 A. Gouiri A. Gouiri 1 👟 F 7.60
10 M. Greenwood M. Greenwood 2 👟 82' F 8.20
17 P. Aubameyang P. Aubameyang 1 ⚽ 72' F 7.30
Bench
78 Ange Lago Ange Lago F
18 A. Vermeeren A. Vermeeren 18' M 7.00
26 B. Nadir B. Nadir M
33 Emerson Emerson D
11 E. Nwaneri E. Nwaneri M
8 H. Abdelli H. Abdelli 1' M
20 Hamed Junior Traorè Hamed Junior Traorè 1 ⚽ 8' M 7.30
6 Tochukwu Nnadi Tochukwu Nnadi 8' M 6.60
Metz Metz 4-2-3-1
61
G 7.60
2 M. Colin M. Colin 82' D 6.30
5
J. Gbamin D 5.30
38 Sadibou Sané Sadibou Sané D 6.70
39 K. Kouao K. Kouao D 5.90
12 Alpha Touré Alpha Touré 87' M 6.90
20 J. Deminguet J. Deminguet 81' M 6.70
7 G. Tsitaishvili G. Tsitaishvili 1 ⚽ M 7.30
10 G. Hein G. Hein 1 👟 M 6.20
70 B. Sarr B. Sarr M 7.00
30 H. Diallo H. Diallo F 6.30
Bench
21 Benjamin Stambouli Benjamin Stambouli M
97 Fodé Ballo-Touré Fodé Ballo-Touré 8' D 6.20
9 G. Abuashvili G. Abuashvili F
11
Giorgi Kvilitaia F
19 L. Michal L. Michal 3' F
34 N. Mbala N. Mbala 9' F 6.20
15 T. Yegbe T. Yegbe D
4 U. Mboula U. Mboula D
Best on the pitch
M. Greenwood
M. Greenwood
F · Marseille
8.20
2 👟
5 shots · 38 pass
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão
M · Marseille
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 37 pass
G · Metz
7.60
· 26 pass
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
F · Marseille
7.60
1 👟
2 shots · 30 pass
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
D · Marseille
7.30
1 shots · 67 pass
Hamed Junior Traorè
Hamed Junior Traorè
M · Marseille
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 3 pass
Marseille Marseille — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Rulli G 90 6.20 — — — 21 20% — — —
F. Medina D 90 7.00 — — — 66 56% 1 1 —
L. Balerdi D 90 7.30 — — 1 67 59% 1 — —
B. Pavard D 90 7.20 — — 1 60 54% 4 — —
Igor Paixão M 89 8.00 1 — 2 37 33% — — —
Q. Timber M 82 6.70 — — 1 29 23% 2 — —
P. Højbjerg M 90 7.00 — — — 73 64% 1 — —
T. Weah M 90 6.30 — — — 29 21% 2 — —
A. Gouiri F 90 7.60 — 1 2 30 25% — — —
M. Greenwood F 82 8.20 — 2 5 38 32% — — —
P. Aubameyang F 72 7.30 1 — 4 19 16% — — —
A. Vermeeren M 18 7.00 — — — 13 12% 1 — —
H. Abdelli M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Hamed Junior Traorè M 8 7.30 1 — 2 3 3% — — —
Tochukwu Nnadi M 8 6.60 — — — 3 3% 1 — —
Metz Metz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.60 — — — 26 16% — — —
M. Colin D 82 6.30 — — — 39 37% 1 1 —
J. Gbamin D 90 5.30 — — — 70 56% 1 — —
Sadibou Sané D 90 6.70 — — — 43 35% 2 — —
K. Kouao D 90 5.90 — — — 34 30% 2 1 —
Alpha Touré M 87 6.90 — — — 57 50% 1 — —
J. Deminguet M 81 6.70 — — 1 25 24% 2 — —
G. Tsitaishvili M 90 7.30 1 — 1 23 17% 1 — —
G. Hein M 90 6.20 — 1 2 57 51% 1 — —
B. Sarr M 90 7.00 — — — 25 22% 1 — —
H. Diallo F 90 6.30 — — — 18 14% — — —
Fodé Ballo-Touré D 8 6.20 — — — 5 3% — — —
L. Michal F 3 — — — — 1 1% — — —
N. Mbala F 9 6.20 — — 1 3 — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Marseille vs Metz?
The final score was Marseille 3–1 Metz.
What did the model predict before Marseille vs Metz?
The model assigned 67% probability to a Marseille win, 20% to a draw, and 11% to an Metz win.