Liga MX
· Clausura - 16
April 23, 2026 03:00
B. Rubio
(ast. F. Almada)
49'
Y. Barcenas
68'
(pen.)
G. Lopez
(ast. Dudu)
75'
D. Hernandez
(ast. Fabio Gomes)
88'
45'+5
(ast. F. Arce)
E. del Villar
54'
(ast. A. Vega)
A. Briseno
87'
(ast. J. Angulo)
N. Castro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 48% win probability (draw 21%, Mazatlán 29%). The final result was Mazatlán 4–3 Toluca. In 1 previous meetings, Mazatlán have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
8
2.01
Actual xG
1.58
4
Saves
2
41%
Possession
59%
3
Corners
8
30
Tackles
25
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
12'
A. Vega
J. Diaz
23'
27'
E. del Villar
45'+5
ast. F. Arce ·
E. del Villar⚽
46'
J. Angulo
/
J. Diaz
⚽B. Rubio
· ast. F. Almada
49'
54'
ast. A. Vega ·
A. Briseno⚽
56'
Bruno Mendez
/
F. Rossi
60'
M. Ruiz
⚽Y. Barcenas
(pen.)
68'
M. Zaleta
/ M. Lainez
72'
S. Godinez
/ Fabio Gomes
72'
J. Diaz
/ G. Lopez
72'
⚽G. Lopez
· ast. Dudu
75'
81'
N. Castro
/
M. Isais
81'
O. Virgen
/
A. Vega
J. Ovalle
/ D. Hernandez
86'
B. Rubio
/ B. Arce
87'
87'
ast. J. Angulo ·
N. Castro⚽
⚽D. Hernandez
· ast. Fabio Gomes
88'
G. Lopez
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
29.87%
Mazatlán ←
21.51%
X
48.63%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Mazatlán)
29.87%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.59
2.01
+0.42
2.06
1.58
-0.48
Mazatlán dominated by xG (2.01 vs 1.58).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
33
G
14
M. Zaleta
72'
D
4
J. Diaz
72'
D
19
L. Merolla
D
5
F. Almada
1 👟
D
21
D
17
J. Ovalle
86'
M
25
72'
M
11
Y. Barcenas
1 ⚽
M
7
1 👟
M
15
Brian Rubio
1 ⚽
87'
F
Bench
26
Angel Leyva
D
9
B. Arce
13'
M
28
D. Hernandez
1 ⚽
14'
F
90
Fabio Gomes
1 👟
18'
F
193
G. Lopez
1 ⚽
18'
F
16
J. Esquivel
D
1
G
17
Mauricio Isais
81'
D
Mauricio Isais
81'
D
25
E. López
1 ⚽
D
E. López
1 ⚽
D
3
Antonio Briseño
1 ⚽
D
Antonio Briseño
1 ⚽
D
2
Diego Barbosa
D
Diego Barbosa
D
14
M. Ruiz
60'
M
M. Ruiz
60'
M
15
Pavel Pérez
M
Pavel Pérez
M
9
A. Vega
1 👟
81'
M
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
1 👟
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
1 👟
M
29
Jorge Díaz
45'
M
Jorge Díaz
45'
M
27
Franco Rossi
57'
F
Franco Rossi
57'
F
Bench
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
1 👟
45'
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
1 👟
45'
M
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
8
Nicolás Castro
1 ⚽
9'
M
Nicolás Castro
1 ⚽
9'
M
23
O. Virgen
9'
F
19
Santiago Simón
M
Santiago Simón
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
M
Sebastián Córdova
M
33
Victor Arteaga
M
Victor Arteaga
M
Best on the pitch
G. Lopez
F · Mazatlán
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 10 pass
Nicolás Castro
M · Toluca
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
D. Hernandez
F · Mazatlán
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
Antonio Briseño
D · Toluca
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 50 pass
Y. Barcenas
M · Mazatlán
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 45 pass
Brian Rubio
F · Mazatlán
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Mazatlán — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — | |
| M. Zaleta | D | 72 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Diaz | D | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 5 | 1 | — |
| L. Merolla | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| F. Almada | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 2 | — | — | |
| J. Ovalle | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 72 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| Y. Barcenas | M | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 45 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — | |
| Brian Rubio | F | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Arce | M | 13 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Hernandez | F | 14 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabio Gomes | F | 18 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| G. Lopez | F | 18 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 10 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| Mauricio Isais | D | 81 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 41 | 37% | 6 | 1 | — |
| Antonio Briseño | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 50 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Diego Barbosa | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 6 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 54 | 48% | 4 | — | 1 |
| Pavel Pérez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 81 | 6.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 34 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fernando Arce Juárez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| Jorge Díaz | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 9 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| O. Virgen | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mazatlán vs Toluca?
The final score was Mazatlán 4–3 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Mazatlán vs Toluca?
The model assigned 29% probability to a Mazatlán win, 21% to a draw, and 48% to an Toluca win.