B. Rubio
(ast. F. Almada)
49'
Y. Barcenas
68'
(pen.)
G. Lopez
(ast. Dudu)
75'
D. Hernandez
(ast. Fabio Gomes)
88'
45'+5
(ast. F. Arce)
E. del Villar
54'
(ast. A. Vega)
A. Briseno
87'
(ast. J. Angulo)
N. Castro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 48% win probability (draw 21%, Mazatlán 29%). The final result was Mazatlán 4–3 Toluca. In 1 previous meetings, Mazatlán have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
8
2.01
Actual xG
1.58
4
Saves
2
41%
Possession
59%
3
Corners
8
30
Tackles
25
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
12'
A. Vega
J. Diaz
23'
27'
E. del Villar
45'+5
ast. F. Arce ·
E. del Villar⚽
46'
J. Angulo
/
J. Diaz
⚽B. Rubio
· ast. F. Almada
49'
54'
ast. A. Vega ·
A. Briseno⚽
56'
Bruno Mendez
/
F. Rossi
60'
M. Ruiz
⚽Y. Barcenas
(pen.)
68'
M. Zaleta
/ M. Lainez
72'
S. Godinez
/ Fabio Gomes
72'
J. Diaz
/ G. Lopez
72'
⚽G. Lopez
· ast. Dudu
75'
81'
N. Castro
/
M. Isais
81'
O. Virgen
/
A. Vega
J. Ovalle
/ D. Hernandez
86'
B. Rubio
/ B. Arce
87'
87'
ast. J. Angulo ·
N. Castro⚽
⚽D. Hernandez
· ast. Fabio Gomes
88'
G. Lopez
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
29.87%
Mazatlán ←
21.51%
X
48.63%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Mazatlán)
29.87%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.59
2.01
+0.42
2.06
1.58
-0.48
Mazatlán dominated by xG (2.01 vs 1.58).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
33
G
14
M. Zaleta
72'
D
M. Zaleta
72'
D
4
J. Diaz
72'
D
19
Lucas Merolla
D
Lucas Merolla
D
5
F. Almada
1 👟
D
F. Almada
1 👟
D
21
D
17
J. Ovalle
86'
M
J. Ovalle
86'
M
25
72'
M
11
Y. Bárcenas
1 ⚽
M
Y. Bárcenas
1 ⚽
M
7
1 👟
M
15
Brian Rubio
1 ⚽
87'
F
Bench
26
Á. Leyva
D
Á. Leyva
D
9
B. Arce
13'
M
B. Arce
13'
M
28
D. Hernandez
1 ⚽
14'
F
90
Fábio Gomes
1 👟
18'
F
Fábio Gomes
1 👟
18'
F
193
G. Lopez
1 ⚽
18'
F
16
J. Esquivel
D
1
G
17
M. Isaís
81'
D
M. Isaís
81'
D
25
E. López
1 ⚽
D
E. López
1 ⚽
D
3
A. Briseño
1 ⚽
D
A. Briseño
1 ⚽
D
2
D. Barbosa
D
D. Barbosa
D
14
M. Ruiz
60'
M
M. Ruiz
60'
M
15
P. Pérez
M
P. Pérez
M
9
A. Vega
1 👟
81'
M
A. Vega
1 👟
81'
M
24
F. Arce
1 👟
M
F. Arce
1 👟
M
29
J. Díaz
45'
M
J. Díaz
45'
M
27
F. Rossi
57'
F
F. Rossi
57'
F
Bench
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
10
J. Angulo
1 👟
45'
M
J. Angulo
1 👟
45'
M
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
8
N. Castro
1 ⚽
9'
M
N. Castro
1 ⚽
9'
M
23
O. Virgen
9'
F
O. Virgen
9'
F
7
Sebastián Córdova
M
Sebastián Córdova
M
19
S. Simón
M
S. Simón
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
Best on the pitch
G. Lopez
F · Mazatlán
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 10 pass
N. Castro
M · Toluca
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
D. Hernandez
F · Mazatlán
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
A. Briseño
D · Toluca
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 50 pass
Y. Bárcenas
M · Mazatlán
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 45 pass
Brian Rubio
F · Mazatlán
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Mazatlán — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — | |
| M. Zaleta | D | 72 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Diaz | D | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Merolla | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| F. Almada | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 2 | — | — | |
| J. Ovalle | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| M | 72 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — | |
| Y. Bárcenas | M | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 45 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — | |
| Brian Rubio | F | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Arce | M | 13 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Hernandez | F | 14 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Fábio Gomes | F | 18 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| G. Lopez | F | 18 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 10 | 8% | 1 | 1 | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| M. Isaís | D | 81 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 41 | 37% | 6 | 1 | — |
| A. Briseño | D | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 50 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Barbosa | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 6 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 54 | 48% | 4 | — | 1 |
| P. Pérez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Vega | M | 81 | 6.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 34 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Arce | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| F. Rossi | F | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 9 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| O. Virgen | F | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mazatlán vs Toluca?
The final score was Mazatlán 4–3 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Mazatlán vs Toluca?
The model assigned 29% probability to a Mazatlán win, 21% to a draw, and 48% to an Toluca win.