Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 22, 2026 20:45

Middlesbrough

#5 · 80 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Sheffield Wednesday

#24 · 0 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Middlesbrough

M. Whittaker 11'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 82% win probability (draw 12%, Sheffield Wednesday 5%). The final result was Middlesbrough 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sheffield Wednesday.

Match statistics

11

Total shots

6

4

Shots on target

1

1.82

Actual xG

0.51

1

Saves

2

61%

Possession

39%

9

Corners

1

12

Tackles

19

2

🟨 Yellow cards

2

Match Events

⚽M. Whittaker

11'

M. Whittaker

30'

51'

J. Thornton

A. Malanda

52'

↕ M. Whittaker / J. Sarmiento

60'

62'

N. Chalobah / M. Nakamba ↕

62'

J. Lowe / C. McNeill ↕

68'

W. Grainger / J. Thornton ↕

70'

M. Lowe

↕ T. Conway / M. K. Sene

78'

↕ D. Strelec / S. Silvera

78'

↕ M. Targett / A. Bangura

81'

83'

O. Kobacki / J. Yates ↕

Pre-match prediction

82.21%

Middlesbrough ←

12.43%

X

5.35%

Sheffield

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 82.21% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Middlesbrough

2.66

1.82

-0.84

Sheffield

0.45

0.51

+0.06

Middlesbrough dominated by xG (1.82 vs 0.51). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Coventry	46	95
2	Ipswich	46	84
3	Millwall	46	83
4	Southampton	46	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	80
6	Hull City	46	73
7	Wrexham	46	71
8	Derby	46	69
9	Norwich	46	65
10	Birmingham	46	64
11	Swansea	46	64
12	Bristol City	46	62
13	Sheffield Utd	46	60
14	Preston	46	60
15	QPR	46	58
16	Watford	46	57
17	Stoke City	46	55
18	Portsmouth	46	55
19	Charlton	46	53
20	Blackburn	46	52
21	West Brom	46	51
22	Oxford United	46	47
23	Leicester	46	46
24	Sheffield Wednesday	46	0

Lineups

Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1

31

G 7.20

3 Matt Targett 81' D 7.30

12 Luke Ayling D 8.30

6 Dael Fry D 7.70

2 Callum Brittain D 8.50

29 Adilson Malanda M 6.90

18 Aidan Morris M 7.90

9 T. Conway 78' M 6.90

11 M. Whittaker 1 ⚽ 60' M 7.20

16 Alan Browne M 6.90

13 David Strelec 78' F 6.20

Bench

24

A. Bangura 9' D 6.70

45 Jeremy Sarmiento 30' M 6.60

27 Sontje Hansen F

Sheffield Wednesday 3-5-2

13

G 6.90

3

M. Lowe D 6.20

22

G. Otegbayo D 7.00

2

L. Palmer D 6.70

45

T. Adaramola M 7.70

37

J. Thornton 68' M 6.60

18

M. Nakamba 62' M 7.00

24

J. Heskey M 6.70

4

Sean Fusire M 6.60

12

J. Yates 83' F 6.60

17

C. McNeill 62' F 6.60

Bench

9 J. Lowe 28' F 6.50

14

N. Chalobah 28' M 6.50

19

O. Kobacki 15' F 6.20

31

W. Grainger 22' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

Callum Brittain

D · Middlesbrough

8.50

· 73 pass

Luke Ayling

D · Middlesbrough

8.30

1 shots · 88 pass

Aidan Morris

M · Middlesbrough

7.90

1 shots · 83 pass

Dael Fry

D · Middlesbrough

7.70

2 shots · 70 pass

T. Adaramola

M · Sheffield

7.70

· 27 pass

Matt Targett

D · Middlesbrough

7.30

1 shots · 58 pass

Middlesbrough — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	18	11%	—	—	—
Matt Targett	D	81	7.30	—	—	1	58	50%	—	—	—
Luke Ayling	D	90	8.30	—	—	1	88	78%	2	—	—
Dael Fry	D	90	7.70	—	—	2	70	67%	—	—	—
Callum Brittain	D	90	8.50	—	—	—	73	66%	2	—	—
Adilson Malanda	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	75	64%	1	1	—
Aidan Morris	M	90	7.90	—	—	1	83	73%	3	—	—
T. Conway	M	78	6.90	—	—	—	26	25%	2	—	—
M. Whittaker	M	60	7.20	1	—	3	18	13%	1	1	—
Alan Browne	M	90	6.90	—	—	2	38	28%	—	—	—
David Strelec	F	78	6.20	—	—	—	11	7%	—	—	—
A. Bangura	D	9	6.70	—	—	—	9	4%	—	—	—
Jeremy Sarmiento	M	30	6.60	—	—	1	6	6%	1	—	—

Sheffield Wednesday — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	38	16%	—	—	—
M. Lowe	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	41	31%	1	1	—
G. Otegbayo	D	90	7.00	—	—	1	30	27%	4	—	—
L. Palmer	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	48	39%	1	—	—
T. Adaramola	M	90	7.70	—	—	—	27	23%	2	—	—
J. Thornton	M	68	6.60	—	—	1	28	24%	1	1	—
M. Nakamba	M	62	7.00	—	—	—	25	24%	—	—	—
J. Heskey	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	40	33%	2	—	—
Sean Fusire	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	34	27%	3	—	—
J. Yates	F	83	6.60	—	—	—	13	10%	3	—	—
C. McNeill	F	62	6.60	—	—	2	14	12%	1	—	—
J. Lowe	F	28	6.50	—	—	—	10	8%	—	—	—
N. Chalobah	M	28	6.50	—	—	1	8	6%	1	—	—
O. Kobacki	F	15	6.20	—	—	—	4	2%	—	—	—
W. Grainger	F	22	6.90	—	—	1	3	3%	—	—	—