Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 22, 2026 20:45 Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough

#1 · 25 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Sheffield Wednesday

✓Model correct — prediction Middlesbrough

M. Whittaker 11'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Middlesbrough a 82% win probability (draw 12%, Sheffield Wednesday 5%). The final result was Middlesbrough 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday. In 1 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sheffield Wednesday.

Match statistics

11

Total shots

6

4

Shots on target

1

1.82

Actual xG

0.51

1

Saves

2

61%

Possession

39%

9

Corners

1

12

Tackles

19

2

🟨 Yellow cards

2

Match Events

⚽M. Whittaker

11'

M. Whittaker

30'

51'

J. Thornton

A. Malanda

52'

↕ M. Whittaker / J. Sarmiento

60'

62'

N. Chalobah / M. Nakamba ↕

62'

J. Lowe / C. McNeill ↕

68'

W. Grainger / J. Thornton ↕

70'

M. Lowe

↕ T. Conway / M. K. Sene

78'

↕ D. Strelec / S. Silvera

78'

↕ M. Targett / A. Bangura

81'

83'

O. Kobacki / J. Yates ↕

Pre-match prediction

82.21%

Middlesbrough ←

12.43%

X

5.35%

Sheffield

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Middlesbrough) 82.21% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Middlesbrough

2.66

1.82

-0.84

Sheffield

0.45

0.51

+0.06

Middlesbrough dominated by xG (1.82 vs 0.51). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5

Lineups

Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1

31

G 7.20

3 M. Targett 81' D 7.30

12 L. Ayling D 8.30

6 D. Fry D 7.70

2 C. Brittain D 8.50

29 A. Malanda M 6.90

18 A. Morris M 7.90

9 T. Conway 78' M 6.90

11 M. Whittaker 1 ⚽ 60' M 7.20

16 A. Browne M 6.90

13 D. Strelec 78' F 6.20

Bench

24 A. Bangura 9' D 6.70

45 J. Sarmiento 30' M 6.60

27 Sontje Hansen F

Sheffield Wednesday 3-5-2

13

G 6.90

3 M. Lowe D 6.20

22 G. Otegbayo D 7.00

2 L. Palmer D 6.70

45 Tayo Adaramola M 7.70

37 Jarvis Thornton 68' M 6.60

18 M. Nakamba 62' M 7.00

24 Jaden Heskey M 6.70

4 S. Fusire M 6.60

12 J. Yates 83' F 6.60

17 Charlie McNeill 62' F 6.60

Bench

9 J. Lowe 28' F 6.50

14 N. Chalobah 28' M 6.50

19 O. Kobacki 15' F 6.20

31 W. Grainger 22' F 6.90

Best on the pitch

C. Brittain

D · Middlesbrough

8.50

· 73 pass

L. Ayling

D · Middlesbrough

8.30

1 shots · 88 pass

A. Morris

M · Middlesbrough

7.90

1 shots · 83 pass

D. Fry

D · Middlesbrough

7.70

2 shots · 70 pass

Tayo Adaramola

M · Sheffield

7.70

· 27 pass

M. Targett

D · Middlesbrough

7.30

1 shots · 58 pass

Middlesbrough — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	18	11%	—	—	—
M. Targett	D	81	7.30	—	—	1	58	50%	—	—	—
L. Ayling	D	90	8.30	—	—	1	88	78%	2	—	—
D. Fry	D	90	7.70	—	—	2	70	67%	—	—	—
C. Brittain	D	90	8.50	—	—	—	73	66%	2	—	—
A. Malanda	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	75	64%	1	1	—
A. Morris	M	90	7.90	—	—	1	83	73%	3	—	—
T. Conway	M	78	6.90	—	—	—	26	25%	2	—	—
M. Whittaker	M	60	7.20	1	—	3	18	13%	1	1	—
A. Browne	M	90	6.90	—	—	2	38	28%	—	—	—
D. Strelec	F	78	6.20	—	—	—	11	7%	—	—	—
A. Bangura	D	9	6.70	—	—	—	9	4%	—	—	—
J. Sarmiento	M	30	6.60	—	—	1	6	6%	1	—	—

Sheffield Wednesday — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	38	16%	—	—	—
M. Lowe	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	41	31%	1	1	—
G. Otegbayo	D	90	7.00	—	—	1	30	27%	4	—	—
L. Palmer	D	90	6.70	—	—	—	48	39%	1	—	—
Tayo Adaramola	M	90	7.70	—	—	—	27	23%	2	—	—
Jarvis Thornton	M	68	6.60	—	—	1	28	24%	1	1	—
M. Nakamba	M	62	7.00	—	—	—	25	24%	—	—	—
Jaden Heskey	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	40	33%	2	—	—
S. Fusire	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	34	27%	3	—	—
J. Yates	F	83	6.60	—	—	—	13	10%	3	—	—
Charlie McNeill	F	62	6.60	—	—	2	14	12%	1	—	—
J. Lowe	F	28	6.50	—	—	—	10	8%	—	—	—
N. Chalobah	M	28	6.50	—	—	1	8	6%	1	—	—
O. Kobacki	F	15	6.20	—	—	—	4	2%	—	—	—
W. Grainger	F	22	6.90	—	—	1	3	3%	—	—	—