Liga BetPlay
· Apertura - 16
April 12, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Millonarios, result Pareggio
Sebastián Valencia
(ast. David Macalister Silva)
60'
76'
(ast. Franco Fagúndez)
Hugo Rodallega
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Santa Fe 17%). The final result was Millonarios 1–1 Santa Fe.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
4
1.48
Actual xG
1.04
3
Saves
5
53%
Possession
47%
10
Corners
2
8
Tackles
8
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Jorge Arias
9'
46'
Jeison Angulo
/
Christian Mafla
⚽Sebastián Valencia
· ast. David Macalister Silva
60'
64'
Franco Fagúndez
/
Luis Palacios
64'
Edwin Mosquera
/
Jhojan Torres
Andrés Llinás
/ Stiven Vega
66'
Carlos Sarabia
/ Samuel Martín
71'
73'
Alexis Zapata
/
Omar Fernández
David Macalister Silva
75'
76'
ast. Franco Fagúndez ·
Hugo Rodallega⚽
79'
Victor Moreno
Rodrigo Contreras
79'
Leonardo Castro
/ Radamel Falcao
81'
David Macalister Silva
/ Sebastián del Castillo
81'
Sebastián Valencia
90'+1
Rodrigo Ureña
90'+5
Samuel Martín
90'
90'
Nahuel Bustos
/
Kilian Toscano
Pre-match prediction
62.23%
Millonarios
20.24%
X ←
17.53%
Santa
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.24%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.47
1.48
-0.99
1.08
1.04
-0.04
Millonarios dominated by xG (1.48 vs 1.04).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
Diego Novoa
G
22
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
1 ⚽
D
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
1 ⚽
D
17
J. Arias
D
4
Edgar Elizalde
D
26
A. Llinas
66'
D
2
Carlos Sarabia
71'
D
14
David Macalister Silva
1 👟
81'
M
18
R. Ureña
M
R. Ureña
M
19
M. Garcia
M
23
L. Castro
81'
F
L. Castro
81'
F
27
R. Contreras
79'
F
R. Contreras
79'
F
Bench
11
B. Castro
F
B. Castro
F
20
D. Banguero
D
7
D. Quintero
M
1
G. De Amores
G
3
M. Samuel
19'
D
9
R. Falcao
9'
F
12
G
32
Christian Mafla
45'
D
Christian Mafla
45'
D
3
Victor Moreno
D
Victor Moreno
D
18
Emanuel Olivera
D
13
H. Palacios
D
8
Omar Fernández
73'
M
Omar Fernández
73'
M
16
Daniel Torres
M
Daniel Torres
M
6
Kilian Toscano
89'
M
Kilian Toscano
89'
M
14
Luis Angel Palacios
64'
M
Luis Angel Palacios
64'
M
11
Hugo Rodallega
1 ⚽
F
Hugo Rodallega
1 ⚽
F
7
Jhojan Torres
64'
F
Jhojan Torres
64'
F
Bench
10
Alexis Zapata
17'
M
Alexis Zapata
17'
M
9
Franco Fagúndez
1 👟
26'
F
Franco Fagúndez
1 👟
26'
F
15
Ivan Scarpeta
D
Ivan Scarpeta
D
19
Nahuel Bustos
1'
F
Nahuel Bustos
1'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Santa
8.30
· 23 pass
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
D · Millonarios
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 34 pass
Franco Fagúndez
F · Santa
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 7 pass
Hugo Rodallega
F · Santa
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 15 pass
Carlos Sarabia
D · Millonarios
7.20
1 shots
· 15 pass
R. Ureña
M · Millonarios
7.00
1 shots
· 53 pass
Millonarios — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Novoa | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Valencia Isaza | D | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 34 | 32% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Arias | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Edgar Elizalde | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Llinas | D | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Sarabia | D | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| David Macalister Silva | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 34 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Ureña | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Garcia | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Castro | F | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Contreras | F | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 5% | — | — | 1 |
| M. Samuel | D | 19 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Falcao | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| Christian Mafla | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Moreno | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Emanuel Olivera | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Omar Fernández | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Torres | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Kilian Toscano | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Luis Angel Palacios | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Hugo Rodallega | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Jhojan Torres | F | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Zapata | M | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Franco Fagúndez | F | 26 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Nahuel Bustos | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
The final score was Millonarios 1–1 Santa Fe.
What did the model predict before Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Millonarios win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Santa Fe win.