Liga BetPlay
· Apertura - 16
April 12, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Millonarios, result Draw
Sebastián Valencia
(ast. David Macalister Silva)
60'
76'
(ast. Franco Fagúndez)
Hugo Rodallega
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Santa Fe 17%). The final result was Millonarios 1–1 Santa Fe. In 1 previous meetings, Millonarios have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Santa Fe.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
4
1.48
Actual xG
1.04
3
Saves
5
53%
Possession
47%
10
Corners
2
8
Tackles
8
5
🟨 Yellow cards
1
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Jorge Arias
9'
46'
Jeison Angulo
/
Christian Mafla
⚽Sebastián Valencia
· ast. David Macalister Silva
60'
64'
Franco Fagúndez
/
Luis Palacios
64'
Edwin Mosquera
/
Jhojan Torres
Andrés Llinás
/ Stiven Vega
66'
Carlos Sarabia
/ Samuel Martín
71'
73'
Alexis Zapata
/
Omar Fernández
David Macalister Silva
75'
76'
ast. Franco Fagúndez ·
Hugo Rodallega⚽
79'
Victor Moreno
Rodrigo Contreras
79'
Leonardo Castro
/ Radamel Falcao
81'
David Macalister Silva
/ Sebastián del Castillo
81'
Sebastián Valencia
90'+1
Rodrigo Ureña
90'+5
Samuel Martín
90'
90'
Nahuel Bustos
/
Kilian Toscano
Pre-match prediction
62.23%
Millonarios
20.24%
X ←
17.53%
Santa
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.24%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.47
1.48
-0.99
1.08
1.04
-0.04
Millonarios dominated by xG (1.48 vs 1.04).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
D. Novoa
G
D. Novoa
G
22
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
1 ⚽
D
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
1 ⚽
D
17
J. Arias
D
J. Arias
D
4
Edgar Elizalde
D
26
A. Llinás
66'
D
A. Llinás
66'
D
2
C. Sarabia
71'
D
C. Sarabia
71'
D
14
D. Silva
1 👟
81'
M
D. Silva
1 👟
81'
M
18
R. Ureña
M
R. Ureña
M
19
M. García
M
M. García
M
23
L. Castro
81'
F
L. Castro
81'
F
27
R. Contreras
79'
F
R. Contreras
79'
F
Bench
11
B. Castro
F
B. Castro
F
20
D. Banguero
D
D. Banguero
D
7
D. Quintero
M
D. Quintero
M
1
Guillermo De Amores
G
Guillermo De Amores
G
3
M. Diaz Samuel
19'
D
M. Diaz Samuel
19'
D
9
Radamel Falcao
9'
F
Radamel Falcao
9'
F
12
G
32
C. Mafla
45'
D
C. Mafla
45'
D
3
V. Moreno
D
V. Moreno
D
18
E. Olivera
D
E. Olivera
D
13
H. Palacios
D
H. Palacios
D
8
O. Fernández
73'
M
O. Fernández
73'
M
16
D. Torres
M
D. Torres
M
6
K. Toscano
89'
M
K. Toscano
89'
M
14
L. Palacios
64'
M
L. Palacios
64'
M
11
H. Rodallega
1 ⚽
F
H. Rodallega
1 ⚽
F
7
Jhojan Torres
64'
F
Jhojan Torres
64'
F
Bench
10
A. Zapata
17'
M
A. Zapata
17'
M
9
F. Fagúndez
1 👟
26'
F
F. Fagúndez
1 👟
26'
F
15
I. Scarpeta
D
I. Scarpeta
D
19
N. Bustos
1'
F
N. Bustos
1'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Santa
8.30
· 23 pass
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
D · Millonarios
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 34 pass
F. Fagúndez
F · Santa
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 7 pass
H. Rodallega
F · Santa
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 15 pass
C. Sarabia
D · Millonarios
7.20
1 shots
· 15 pass
R. Ureña
M · Millonarios
7.00
1 shots
· 53 pass
Millonarios — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Novoa | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Valencia Isaza | D | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 34 | 32% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Arias | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Edgar Elizalde | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Llinás | D | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Sarabia | D | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 10% | — | — | — |
| D. Silva | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 34 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Ureña | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 38% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. García | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Castro | F | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 13 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Contreras | F | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 7 | 5% | — | — | 1 |
| M. Diaz Samuel | D | 19 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Radamel Falcao | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| C. Mafla | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Moreno | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Olivera | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Fernández | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| D. Torres | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| K. Toscano | M | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Palacios | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| H. Rodallega | F | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Jhojan Torres | F | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Zapata | M | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| F. Fagúndez | F | 26 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Bustos | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
The final score was Millonarios 1–1 Santa Fe.
What did the model predict before Millonarios vs Santa Fe?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Millonarios win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Santa Fe win.