Liga MX
· Clausura - 16
April 22, 2026 05:05
L. Ocampos
42'
(pen.)
O. Torres
(ast. R. Chavez)
44'
2'
(ast. B. Garnica)
E. Gomez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monterrey a 50% win probability (draw 28%, Puebla 21%). The final result was Monterrey 2–1 Puebla. In 1 previous meetings, Monterrey have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Puebla.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
2
2.36
Actual xG
1.04
1
Saves
4
43%
Possession
57%
3
Corners
4
16
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
2'
ast. B. Garnica ·
E. Gomez⚽
F. Ambriz
15'
31'
E. Lozano
/
A. Canelo
⚽L. Ocampos
(pen.)
42'
⚽O. Torres
· ast. R. Chavez
44'
45'+3
A. Organista
60'
O. Torres
/ I. Fimbres
67'
L. Reyes
/ G. Arteaga
67'
J. Corona
/ S. Rodriguez
73'
74'
U. Torres
/
E. Navarro
74'
C. Baltazar
/
A. Ramirez
C. Salcedo
80'
C. Salcedo
/ A. Aceves
84'
L. Orellano
/ C. Reyes
84'
C. Reyes
89'
90'+1
E. Mustre
/
B. Garnica
Pre-match prediction
50.11%
Monterrey ←
28.41%
X
21.48%
Puebla
we assigned to the actual result (Monterrey)
50.11%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.32
2.36
+1.04
0.81
1.04
+0.23
Monterrey dominated by xG (2.36 vs 1.04).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
25
G
21
L. Reyes
67'
D
13
Carlos Salcedo
84'
D
4
V. Guzman
D
2
R. Chavez
1 👟
D
8
Óliver Torres
1 ⚽
67'
M
5
F. Ambriz
M
29
L. Ocampos
1 ⚽
M
17
J. Corona
73'
M
11
L. Orellano
84'
M
27
F
Bench
194
C. Reyes
15'
M
14
E. Aguirre
M
20
U. Djurdjevic
F
28
G
6
N. Diaz
D
4
J. Vargas
D
192
E. Navarro
74'
D
12
I. Moreno
D
16
A. Ramirez
74'
M
11
E. Gomez
1 ⚽
M
24
A. Organista
M
18
A. Gamarra
M
27
B. Garnica
1 👟
M
25
A. Canelo
31'
F
Bench
17
E. Lozano
59'
F
20
J. R. Pachuca Martinez
D
Best on the pitch
Óliver Torres
M · Monterrey
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 46 pass
E. Gomez
M · Puebla
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 39 pass
R. Chavez
D · Monterrey
7.50
1 👟
2 shots
· 32 pass
J. Vargas
D · Puebla
7.50
1 shots
· 77 pass
Carlos Salcedo
D · Monterrey
7.20
2 shots
· 49 pass
V. Guzman
D · Monterrey
7.20
· 56 pass
Monterrey — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| L. Reyes | D | 67 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Salcedo | D | 84 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 45% | — | 1 | — |
| V. Guzman | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Chavez | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 32 | 28% | 4 | — | — |
| Óliver Torres | M | 67 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 46 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Ambriz | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 44% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. Ocampos | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 20% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Corona | M | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Orellano | M | 84 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| C. Reyes | M | 15 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | 1 | — |
Puebla — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 32% | — | — | — | |
| N. Diaz | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 66 | 60% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Vargas | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 77 | 70% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Navarro | D | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Moreno | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Ramirez | M | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | — | — | — |
| E. Gomez | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Organista | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 65 | 58% | 4 | 1 | — |
| A. Gamarra | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Garnica | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | 1 | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Canelo | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Lozano | F | 59 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Monterrey vs Puebla?
The final score was Monterrey 2–1 Puebla.
What did the model predict before Monterrey vs Puebla?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Monterrey win, 28% to a draw, and 21% to an Puebla win.