Eredivisie · Regular Season - 28 March 22, 2026 13:15

NEC Nijmegen

#4 · 56 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Heerenveen

#8 · 50 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction NEC Nijmegen, result Pareggio

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave NEC Nijmegen a 62% win probability (draw 18%, Heerenveen 19%). The final result was NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen. In 1 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Heerenveen.

Match statistics

10

Shots on target

5

2.22

Actual xG

1.38

54%

Possession

46%

6

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

62.13%

NEC

18.79%

X ←

19.08%

Heerenveen

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.79% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

NEC

2.42

2.22

-0.2

Heerenveen

1.24

1.38

+0.14

NEC Nijmegen dominated by xG (2.22 vs 1.38). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Roda	1	1
1	Willem II	1	3
1	PSV Eindhoven	33	81
2	Feyenoord	33	62
2	Waalwijk	1	1
2	Waalwijk	1	0
3	Twente	33	58
4	NEC Nijmegen	33	56
5	Ajax	33	55
6	AZ Alkmaar	33	51
7	Utrecht	33	50
8	Heerenveen	33	50
9	Groningen	33	45
10	Sparta Rotterdam	33	43
11	Fortuna Sittard	33	39
12	GO Ahead Eagles	33	38
13	PEC Zwolle	33	37
14	Excelsior	33	35
15	Telstar	33	34
16	FC Volendam	33	32
17	NAC Breda	33	28
18	Heracles	33	19