Eredivisie · Regular Season - 28 March 22, 2026 12:15 Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen

#9 · 7 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Heerenveen

#12 · 5 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction NEC Nijmegen, result Draw

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave NEC Nijmegen a 62% win probability (draw 18%, Heerenveen 19%). The final result was NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen. In 1 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Heerenveen.

Match statistics

10

Shots on target

5

2.22

Actual xG

1.38

54%

Possession

46%

6

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

62.13%

NEC

18.79%

X ←

19.08%

Heerenveen

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.79% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

NEC

2.42

2.22

-0.2

Heerenveen

1.24

1.38

+0.14

NEC Nijmegen dominated by xG (2.22 vs 1.38). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	6	16
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	13
3	Twente	6	13
4	Feyenoord	5	11
5	Excelsior	5	10
6	Fortuna Sittard	5	10
7	GO Ahead Eagles	5	8
8	Ajax	4	7
9	NEC Nijmegen	5	7
10	Groningen	5	7
11	Sparta Rotterdam	5	5
12	Heerenveen	5	5
13	PEC Zwolle	5	4
14	Telstar	5	4
15	Utrecht	5	2
16	Willem II	5	2
17	Cambuur	5	1
18	ADO Den Haag	6	1