Eredivisie · Regular Season - 28 March 22, 2026 12:15 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen

#12 · 11 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Heerenveen

#7 · 15 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction NEC Nijmegen, result Draw

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave NEC Nijmegen a 62% win probability (draw 18%, Heerenveen 19%). The final result was NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen. In 1 previous meetings, NEC Nijmegen have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Heerenveen.

Match statistics

10

Shots on target

5

2.22

Actual xG

1.38

54%

Possession

46%

6

Corners

2

Pre-match prediction

62.13%

NEC

18.79%

X ←

19.08%

Heerenveen

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 18.79% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

NEC

2.42

2.22

-0.2

Heerenveen

1.24

1.38

+0.14

NEC Nijmegen dominated by xG (2.22 vs 1.38). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	24
2	Ajax	10	21
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	20
4	Twente	10	20
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	18
7	Heerenveen	10	15
8	Groningen	10	15
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	14
10	Cambuur	10	12
11	Utrecht	10	12
12	NEC Nijmegen	10	11
13	Excelsior	10	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	8
16	Telstar	10	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	6
18	Willem II	10	2