MLS
· Regular Season - 9
April 23, 2026 03:30
✗Model wrong — prediction New York City FC, result Pareggio
N. Mercau
20'
N. Mercau
(ast. M. Moralez)
35'
A. Ojeda
(ast. A. O'Neill)
53'
Talles Magno
(ast. A. Ojeda)
79'
32'
(ast. E. Echenique)
K. Denkey
65'
(ast. G. Valenzuela)
K. Denkey
90'+2
(ast. P. Bucha)
A. Chirila
(pen.)
90'+5
Evander
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave New York City FC a 52% win probability (draw 23%, FC Cincinnati 24%). The final result was New York City FC 4–4 FC Cincinnati.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
6
1.56
Actual xG
1.49
2
Saves
5
55%
Possession
45%
2
Corners
4
22
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽N. Mercau
20'
23'
A. Powell
/
T. Hadebe
32'
ast. E. Echenique ·
K. Denkey⚽
⚽N. Mercau
· ast. M. Moralez
35'
46'
A. Chirila
/
A. Powell
50'
G. Flores
⚽A. Ojeda
· ast. A. O'Neill
53'
57'
60'
G. Valenzuela
/
E. Echenique
60'
T. Anunga
/
G. Flores
65'
ast. G. Valenzuela ·
K. Denkey⚽
71'
K. Smith
H. Wolf
/ K. Parks
72'
M. Moralez
/ Talles Magno
72'
⚽Talles Magno
· ast. A. Ojeda
79'
83'
A. Jabbari
/
T. Barlow
N. Mercau
/ A. Farnos
84'
A. Ojeda
/ J. Shore
84'
90'+2
ast. P. Bucha ·
A. Chirila⚽
90'+5
(pen.)
Evander⚽
90'+6
T. Anunga
T. Gray
/ S. Tanasijevic
90'
Pre-match prediction
52.35%
New
23.28%
X ←
24.37%
FC
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
23.28%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.30
1.56
-1.74
1.59
1.49
-0.1
xG dominance was balanced (1.56 – 1.49).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
49
G
22
D
34
Raul Gustavo
D
Raul Gustavo
D
13
Thiago Martins
D
Thiago Martins
D
24
Tayvon Gray
89'
D
Tayvon Gray
89'
D
21
A. O'Neill
1 👟
M
5
Kai Trewin
M
Kai Trewin
M
17
Hannes Wolf
72'
M
Hannes Wolf
72'
M
10
Maxi Moralez
1 👟
72'
M
Maxi Moralez
1 👟
72'
M
26
Agustin Ojeda
1 ⚽
1 👟
84'
M
Agustin Ojeda
1 ⚽
1 👟
84'
M
7
Nicolás Fernández
2 ⚽
84'
F
Nicolás Fernández
2 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
87
Arnau Farnos
17'
F
Arnau Farnos
17'
F
55
Keaton Parks
18'
M
Keaton Parks
18'
M
2
Nico Cavallo
D
Nico Cavallo
D
99
Seymour Garfield-Reid
F
Seymour Garfield-Reid
F
19
Strahinja Tanasijević
11'
D
Strahinja Tanasijević
11'
D
11
Talles Magno
1 ⚽
18'
F
18
G
15
T. Hadebe
23'
D
3
Gilberto Flores
60'
D
Gilberto Flores
60'
D
24
Kyle Smith
D
Kyle Smith
D
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
M
Kenji Mboma Dem
M
11
Samuel Gidi
M
Samuel Gidi
M
20
Pavel Bucha
1 👟
M
Pavel Bucha
1 👟
M
66
Ender Echenique
1 👟
60'
M
Ender Echenique
1 👟
60'
M
10
Evander
1 ⚽
F
Evander
1 ⚽
F
16
Tom Barlow
83'
F
Tom Barlow
83'
F
9
Kévin Denkey
2 ⚽
F
Kévin Denkey
2 ⚽
F
Bench
2
Alvas Powell
22'
D
88
Andrei Chirila
1 ⚽
45'
D
Andrei Chirila
1 ⚽
45'
D
22
Gerardo Valenzuela
1 👟
30'
M
Gerardo Valenzuela
1 👟
30'
M
27
Tah Anunga
30'
M
Tah Anunga
30'
M
Best on the pitch
Nicolás Fernández
F · New
10.00
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 46 pass
Kévin Denkey
F · FC
8.30
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 14 pass
Agustin Ojeda
M · New
7.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 33 pass
Evander
F · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 38 pass
Talles Magno
F · New
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
Kai Trewin
M · New
7.30
· 51 pass
New York City FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 5.20 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 49% | 2 | — | — | |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 55% | 3 | — | — |
| Thiago Martins | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 65 | 61% | — | — | — |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 70 | 58% | 4 | — | — |
| A. O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 53 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Kai Trewin | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 41% | 6 | — | — |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 72 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 30 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 72 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 84 | 7.90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 84 | 10.00 | 2 | — | 2 | 46 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| Arnau Farnos | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Keaton Parks | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | 11 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 18 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| T. Hadebe | D | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Flores | D | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Kyle Smith | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 46 | 37% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Kenji Mboma Dem | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Gidi | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 57 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Pavel Bucha | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 50 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Ender Echenique | M | 60 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 19 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Evander | F | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 38 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Tom Barlow | F | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Kévin Denkey | F | 90 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 2 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Alvas Powell | D | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Andrei Chirila | D | 45 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 35 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Gerardo Valenzuela | M | 30 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 23 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Tah Anunga | M | 30 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
The final score was New York City FC 4–4 FC Cincinnati.
What did the model predict before New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
The model assigned 52% probability to a New York City FC win, 23% to a draw, and 24% to an FC Cincinnati win.