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MLS · Regular Season - 9 April 23, 2026 03:30
New York City FC
#8 · 19 pts
4 – 4
Final score
FC Cincinnati
#7 · 20 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction New York City FC, result Draw
N. Mercau 20'
N. Mercau (ast. M. Moralez) 35'
A. Ojeda (ast. A. O'Neill) 53'
Talles Magno (ast. A. Ojeda) 79'
32' (ast. E. Echenique) K. Denkey
65' (ast. G. Valenzuela) K. Denkey
90'+2 (ast. P. Bucha) A. Chirila
(pen.) 90'+5 Evander
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave New York City FC a 52% win probability (draw 23%, FC Cincinnati 24%). The final result was New York City FC 4–4 FC Cincinnati.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
6
1.56
Actual xG
1.49
2
Saves
5
55%
Possession
45%
2
Corners
4
22
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽N. Mercau
20'
23'
A. Powell / T. Hadebe ↕
32'
ast. E. Echenique · K. Denkey⚽
⚽N. Mercau · ast. M. Moralez
35'
46'
A. Chirila / A. Powell ↕
50'
G. Flores
⚽A. Ojeda · ast. A. O'Neill
53'
57'
60'
G. Valenzuela / E. Echenique ↕
60'
T. Anunga / G. Flores ↕
65'
ast. G. Valenzuela · K. Denkey⚽
71'
K. Smith
↕ H. Wolf / K. Parks
72'
↕ M. Moralez / Talles Magno
72'
⚽Talles Magno · ast. A. Ojeda
79'
83'
A. Jabbari / T. Barlow ↕
↕ N. Mercau / A. Farnos
84'
↕ A. Ojeda / J. Shore
84'
90'+2
ast. P. Bucha · A. Chirila⚽
90'+5
(pen.) Evander⚽
90'+6
T. Anunga
↕ T. Gray / S. Tanasijevic
90'
Pre-match prediction
52.35%
New
23.28%
X ←
24.37%
FC
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.28% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
New
3.30
1.56
-1.74
FC
1.59
1.49
-0.1
xG dominance was balanced (1.56 – 1.49). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 14 33
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 15 31
3 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 14 26
4 New England Revolution New England Revolution 14 25
5 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 15 22
6 Charlotte Charlotte 15 21
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 15 20
8 New York City FC New York City FC 15 19
9 DC United DC United 15 18
10 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 15 16
11 CF Montreal CF Montreal 14 14
12 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 15 14
13 Toronto FC Toronto FC 14 14
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 14 11
15 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 15 7
Lineups
New York City FC New York City FC 4-2-3-1
49
G 6.30
22
D 5.20
34 Raul Gustavo Raul Gustavo D 6.70
13 Thiago Martins Thiago Martins D 6.30
24 Tayvon Gray Tayvon Gray 89' D 7.20
21 A. O'Neill A. O'Neill 1 👟 M 6.90
5 K. Trewin K. Trewin M 7.30
17 Hannes Wolf Hannes Wolf 72' M 6.70
10 M. Moralez M. Moralez 1 👟 72' M 7.20
26 Agustin Ojeda Agustin Ojeda 1 ⚽ 1 👟 84' M 7.90
7 N. Fernández Mercau N. Fernández Mercau 2 ⚽ 84' F 10.00
Bench
87 Arnau Farnos Arnau Farnos 17' F 6.70
55 Keaton Parks Keaton Parks 18' M 6.30
2 Nico Cavallo Nico Cavallo D
99 Seymour Garfield-Reid Seymour Garfield-Reid F
19 Strahinja Tanasijević Strahinja Tanasijević 11' D 5.90
11
Talles Magno 1 ⚽ 18' F 7.70
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
18
G 5.90
15
T. Hadebe 23' D 6.30
3 Gilberto Flores Gilberto Flores 60' D 6.20
24 K. Smith K. Smith D 6.70
17 K. Mboma Dem K. Mboma Dem M 6.20
11 Samuel Gidi Samuel Gidi M 6.50
20
Pavel Bucha 1 👟 M 6.60
66
Ender Echenique 1 👟 60' M 6.60
10 Evander Evander 1 ⚽ F 7.70
16 T. Barlow T. Barlow 83' F 6.30
9 K. Denkey K. Denkey 2 ⚽ F 8.30
Bench
2
Alvas Powell 22' D 6.70
88 Andrei Chirila Andrei Chirila 1 ⚽ 45' D 7.20
27 B. Anunga B. Anunga 30' M 6.50
22 G. Valenzuela G. Valenzuela 1 👟 30' M 6.20
Best on the pitch
N. Fernández Mercau
N. Fernández Mercau
F · New
10.00
2 ⚽
2 shots · 46 pass
K. Denkey
K. Denkey
F · FC
8.30
2 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
Agustin Ojeda
Agustin Ojeda
M · New
7.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 33 pass
Evander
Evander
F · FC
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 38 pass
Talles Magno
F · New
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 3 pass
K. Trewin
K. Trewin
M · New
7.30
· 51 pass
New York City FC New York City FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 22 16% — — —
D 90 5.20 — — 1 57 49% 2 — —
Raul Gustavo D 90 6.70 — — 1 63 55% 3 — —
Thiago Martins D 90 6.30 — — — 65 61% — — —
Tayvon Gray D 89 7.20 — — — 70 58% 4 — —
A. O'Neill M 90 6.90 — 1 — 53 45% 2 — —
K. Trewin M 90 7.30 — — — 51 41% 6 — —
Hannes Wolf M 72 6.70 — — 3 30 27% 2 — —
M. Moralez M 72 7.20 — 1 2 37 29% — — —
Agustin Ojeda M 84 7.90 1 1 3 33 24% — — —
N. Fernández Mercau F 84 10.00 2 — 2 46 36% 3 — —
Arnau Farnos F 17 6.70 — — — 6 4% — — —
Keaton Parks M 18 6.30 — — 1 12 10% — — —
Strahinja Tanasijević D 11 5.90 — — — 1 1% — — —
Talles Magno F 18 7.70 1 — 1 3 2% — — —
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.90 — — — 28 18% — — —
T. Hadebe D 23 6.30 — — — 9 8% — — —
Gilberto Flores D 60 6.20 — — — 35 29% 1 1 —
K. Smith D 90 6.70 — — — 46 37% 5 1 —
K. Mboma Dem M 90 6.20 — — 1 40 32% — — —
Samuel Gidi M 90 6.50 — — — 57 44% — — —
Pavel Bucha M 90 6.60 — 1 1 50 43% 1 — —
Ender Echenique M 60 6.60 — 1 — 19 12% 2 — —
Evander F 90 7.70 1 — 2 38 29% 2 — —
T. Barlow F 83 6.30 — — — 8 4% — — —
K. Denkey F 90 8.30 2 — 2 14 12% — — —
Alvas Powell D 22 6.70 — — — 14 12% 2 — —
Andrei Chirila D 45 7.20 1 — 1 35 31% 1 — —
B. Anunga M 30 6.50 — — — 27 26% 1 1 —
G. Valenzuela M 30 6.20 — 1 2 23 20% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
The final score was New York City FC 4–4 FC Cincinnati.
What did the model predict before New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
The model assigned 52% probability to a New York City FC win, 23% to a draw, and 24% to an FC Cincinnati win.