← A-League Men

Newcastle Jets - Sydney

A-League Men May 16, 2026 11:40
#1 · 48 pts
vs
#5 · 39 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 19.2°C 💨 4 km/h · Newcastle
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.23%
Win
Newcastle Jets
22.95%
Draw
22.82%
Win
Sydney
1.89
Expected xG
1.06

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Newcastle Jets a 54% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Sydney. Expected goals are 1.9 for Newcastle Jets and 1.1 for Sydney (total 2.9), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.5% probability. In 4 previous meetings, Newcastle Jets have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Sydney.

Score Matrix
↕ Newcastle Jets Sydney →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3% 5.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
1 9.9% 10.5% 5.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%
2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 5.9% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 2.8% 2.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Recent form
D Sydney 1–1
W Central Coast Mariners 4–0
D Melbourne Victory 2–2
D Adelaide United 1–1
L Macarthur 3–2
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 28%
D Newcastle Jets 1–1
W Melbourne Victory 0–1
D Auckland 2–2
D Perth Glory 0–0
W Western Sydney Wanderers 0–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 47%
Playing profile
Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets
Attack
47
Defence
61
Form
58
Sydney Sydney
Attack
30
Defence
69
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 26 48
2 Adelaide United Adelaide United 26 43
3 Auckland Auckland 26 42
4 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 26 40
5 Sydney Sydney 26 39
6 Melbourne City Melbourne City 26 38
7 Macarthur Macarthur 26 34
8 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 26 33
9 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 26 32
10 Perth Glory Perth Glory 26 31
11 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 26 26
12 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 26 21
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Sydney?
The model gives Newcastle Jets a 54% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 22% for an Sydney win.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets vs Sydney?
Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 1.9, Sydney 1.1 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle Jets vs Sydney?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.5%.