Europa League
· Semi-finals
April 30, 2026 21:00
C. Wood
71'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 48% win probability (draw 22%, Aston Villa 28%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa. In 3 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
3
1.43
Actual xG
0.72
3
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
5
Corners
7
16
Tackles
15
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
55'
L. Bogarde
/
A. Onana
⚽C. Wood
(pen.)
71'
O. Aina
/ Z. Abbott
75'
78'
Y. Tielemans
79'
Douglas Luiz
/
L. Digne
79'
J. Sancho
/
J. McGinn
79'
I. Maatsen
/
E. Buendia
Igor Jesus
/ R. Yates
90'
Pre-match prediction
48.7%
Nottingham ←
22.97%
X
28.33%
Aston
we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest)
48.7%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.89
1.43
-0.46
1.38
0.72
-0.66
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.43 vs 0.72).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
27
G
3
Neco Williams
D
Neco Williams
D
4
Morato
D
Morato
D
31
Nikola Milenković
D
Nikola Milenković
D
34
O. Aina
75'
D
10
M. Gibbs-White
M
M. Gibbs-White
M
8
Elliot Anderson
M
Elliot Anderson
M
16
Nicolás Domínguez
M
Nicolás Domínguez
M
21
Omari Hutchinson
M
Omari Hutchinson
M
11
Chris Wood
1 ⚽
F
Chris Wood
1 ⚽
F
19
Igor Jesus
F
Igor Jesus
F
Bench
29
Dilane Bakwa
F
Dilane Bakwa
F
24
James McAtee
M
James McAtee
M
22
Ryan Yates
4'
M
Ryan Yates
4'
M
44
Z. Abbott
19'
D
23
Emiliano Martínez
G
Emiliano Martínez
G
12
Lucas Digne
78'
D
Lucas Digne
78'
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
2
Matty Cash
D
Matty Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
M
Y. Tielemans
M
24
A. Onana
55'
M
10
E. Buendía
79'
M
E. Buendía
79'
M
27
M. Rogers
M
M. Rogers
M
7
J. McGinn
79'
M
J. McGinn
79'
M
11
O. Watkins
F
O. Watkins
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
22
Ian Maatsen
15'
D
Ian Maatsen
15'
D
19
Jadon Sancho
15'
F
Jadon Sancho
15'
F
26
Lamare Bogarde
39'
M
Lamare Bogarde
39'
M
18
Tammy Abraham
F
Tammy Abraham
F
5
Tyrone Mings
D
Tyrone Mings
D
3
Victor Lindelöf
D
Victor Lindelöf
D
Best on the pitch
Elliot Anderson
M · Nottingham
7.90
1 shots
· 68 pass
Emiliano Martínez
G · Aston
7.70
· 30 pass
Omari Hutchinson
M · Nottingham
7.30
2 shots
· 33 pass
J. McGinn
M · Aston
7.30
· 23 pass
G · Nottingham
7.20
· 26 pass
Morato
D · Nottingham
7.20
· 34 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| Neco Williams | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Morato | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 75 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 94 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 62% | 3 | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Chris Wood | F | 94 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Ryan Yates | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Z. Abbott | D | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 94 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 56 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Onana | M | 55 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 79 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 39 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 22% to a draw, and 28% to an Aston Villa win.