Europa League
· Semi-finals
April 30, 2026 21:00
C. Wood
71'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 48% win probability (draw 22%, Aston Villa 28%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa. In 4 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
3
1.43
Actual xG
0.72
3
Saves
3
51%
Possession
49%
5
Corners
7
16
Tackles
15
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
55'
L. Bogarde
/
A. Onana
⚽C. Wood
(pen.)
71'
O. Aina
/ Z. Abbott
75'
78'
Y. Tielemans
79'
Douglas Luiz
/
L. Digne
79'
J. Sancho
/
J. McGinn
79'
I. Maatsen
/
E. Buendia
Igor Jesus
/ R. Yates
90'
Pre-match prediction
48.7%
Nottingham ←
22.97%
X
28.33%
Aston
we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest)
48.7%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.89
1.43
-0.46
1.38
0.72
-0.66
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.43 vs 0.72).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
27
G
3
N. Williams
D
N. Williams
D
4
Morato
D
Morato
D
31
N. Milenković
D
N. Milenković
D
34
O. Aina
75'
D
O. Aina
75'
D
10
M. Gibbs-White
M
M. Gibbs-White
M
8
E. Anderson
M
E. Anderson
M
16
N. Domínguez
M
N. Domínguez
M
21
Omari Hutchinson
M
Omari Hutchinson
M
11
C. Wood
1 ⚽
F
C. Wood
1 ⚽
F
19
Igor Jesus
F
Igor Jesus
F
Bench
29
D. Bakwa
F
D. Bakwa
F
24
J. McAtee
M
J. McAtee
M
22
R. Yates
4'
M
R. Yates
4'
M
44
Z. Abbott
19'
D
Z. Abbott
19'
D
23
E. Martínez
G
E. Martínez
G
12
L. Digne
78'
D
L. Digne
78'
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
M
Y. Tielemans
M
24
Amadou Onana
55'
M
Amadou Onana
55'
M
10
E. Buendía
79'
M
E. Buendía
79'
M
27
M. Rogers
M
M. Rogers
M
7
J. McGinn
79'
M
J. McGinn
79'
M
11
O. Watkins
F
O. Watkins
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
22
I. Maatsen
15'
D
I. Maatsen
15'
D
19
Jadon Sancho
15'
F
Jadon Sancho
15'
F
26
L. Bogarde
39'
M
L. Bogarde
39'
M
18
T. Abraham
F
T. Abraham
F
5
T. Mings
D
T. Mings
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
Best on the pitch
E. Anderson
M · Nottingham
7.90
1 shots
· 68 pass
E. Martínez
G · Aston
7.70
· 30 pass
Omari Hutchinson
M · Nottingham
7.30
2 shots
· 33 pass
J. McGinn
M · Aston
7.30
· 23 pass
G · Nottingham
7.20
· 26 pass
Morato
D · Nottingham
7.20
· 34 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| N. Williams | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Morato | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 75 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 36% | — | — | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 94 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 68 | 62% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Domínguez | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 94 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 21 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Yates | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Z. Abbott | D | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Martínez | G | 94 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 21% | — | — | — |
| L. Digne | D | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 56 | 52% | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 55 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 79 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| I. Maatsen | D | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| L. Bogarde | M | 39 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 22% to a draw, and 28% to an Aston Villa win.