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Premier League · Regular Season - 33 April 19, 2026 17:00
Nottingham Forest
#16 · 43 pts
4 – 1
Final score
Burnley
#19 · 21 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Nottingham Forest
M. Gibbs-White 62'
M. Gibbs-White (ast. O. Hutchinson) 69'
M. Gibbs-White (ast. R. Yates) 77'
Igor Jesus (ast. N. Dominguez) 90'+8
45'+2 (ast. Q. Hartman) Z. Flemming

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 60% win probability (draw 25%, Burnley 14%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Burnley.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
3
3
Shots on target
3
1.00
Actual xG
0.36
2
Saves
0
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
4
21
Tackles
22
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
↕ Murillo / Cunha
42'
45'+2
ast. Q. Hartman · Z. Flemming⚽
↕ D. Bakwa / Igor Jesus
46'
⚽M. Gibbs-White
62'
64'
L. Foster / M. Edwards ↕
⚽M. Gibbs-White · ast. O. Hutchinson
69'
75'
Florentino
76'
J. Bruun Larsen / L. Ugochukwu ↕
↕ C. Wood / R. Yates
76'
⚽M. Gibbs-White · ast. R. Yates
77'
80'
K. Walker
83'
L. Tchaouna / J. Anthony ↕
84'
J. Laurent / Florentino ↕
84'
A. Broja / Z. Flemming ↕
↕ O. Hutchinson / Morato
88'
↕ M. Gibbs-White / N. Dominguez
89'
⚽Igor Jesus · ast. N. Dominguez
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
60.14%
Nottingham ←
25.03%
X
14.83%
Burnley
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest) 60.14% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Nottingham
1.76
1.00
-0.76
Burnley
0.80
0.36
-0.44
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.00 vs 0.36). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Arsenal Arsenal 36 79
2 Manchester City Manchester City 36 77
3 Manchester United Manchester United 36 65
4 Liverpool Liverpool 36 59
5 Aston Villa Aston Villa 36 59
6 Bournemouth Bournemouth 36 55
7 Brighton Brighton 36 53
8 Brentford Brentford 36 51
9 Chelsea Chelsea 36 49
10 Everton Everton 36 49
11 Fulham Fulham 36 48
12 Sunderland Sunderland 36 48
13 Newcastle Newcastle 36 46
14 Leeds Leeds 36 44
15 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 36 44
16 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 36 43
17 Tottenham Tottenham 36 38
18 West Ham West Ham 36 36
19 Burnley Burnley 36 21
20 Wolves Wolves 36 18
Lineups
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1
26
G 6.60
3 Neco Williams Neco Williams D 7.50
5
Murillo 42' D 7.20
31 Nikola Milenković Nikola Milenković D 5.90
34
O. Aina D 6.30
8 Elliot Anderson Elliot Anderson M 7.30
6
Ibrahim Sangaré M 7.30
21 Omari Hutchinson Omari Hutchinson 1 👟 88' M 6.90
10 M. Gibbs-White M. Gibbs-White 3 ⚽ 89' M 10.00
29 Dilane Bakwa Dilane Bakwa 45' M 6.50
11 Chris Wood Chris Wood 76' F 6.50
Bench
19 Igor Jesus Igor Jesus 1 ⚽ 51' F 6.60
23 Jair Jair 54' D 6.60
24 James McAtee James McAtee M
4 Morato Morato 8' D 6.30
16 Nicolás Domínguez Nicolás Domínguez 1 👟 7' M
22 Ryan Yates Ryan Yates 1 👟 20' M 6.90
9 Taiwo Awoniyi Taiwo Awoniyi F
Burnley Burnley 4-2-3-1
1
G 5.20
3 Quilindschy Hartman Quilindschy Hartman 1 👟 D 6.60
5 Maxime Estève Maxime Estève D 6.20
18
D 6.30
2 K. Walker K. Walker D 6.30
16 Florentino Luís Florentino Luís 83' M 6.00
20 James Ward-Prowse James Ward-Prowse M 6.20
11 Jaidon Anthony Jaidon Anthony 83' M 6.20
8 Lesley Ugochukwu Lesley Ugochukwu 76' M 6.20
10
M. Edwards 64' M 6.70
19 Z. Flemming Z. Flemming 1 ⚽ 84' F 7.30
Bench
27 Armando Broja Armando Broja 12' F 6.50
12 Bashir Humphreys Bashir Humphreys D
29 Josh Laurent Josh Laurent 13' M 6.70
17 Loum Tchaouna Loum Tchaouna 13' F 6.50
9 Lyle Foster Lyle Foster 32' F 6.00
Best on the pitch
M. Gibbs-White
M. Gibbs-White
M · Nottingham
10.00
3 ⚽
5 shots · 30 pass
Neco Williams
Neco Williams
D · Nottingham
7.50
1 shots · 44 pass
Z. Flemming
Z. Flemming
F · Burnley
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 11 pass
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson
M · Nottingham
7.30
· 76 pass
Ibrahim Sangaré
M · Nottingham
7.30
· 51 pass
Murillo
D · Nottingham
7.20
· 31 pass
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 6.60 — — — 20 13% — — —
Neco Williams D 96 7.50 — — 1 44 35% 2 — —
Murillo D 42 7.20 — — — 31 27% 3 — —
Nikola Milenković D 96 5.90 — — — 45 39% — — —
O. Aina D 96 6.30 — — — 50 42% 1 — —
Elliot Anderson M 96 7.30 — — — 76 57% 3 — —
Ibrahim Sangaré M 96 7.30 — — — 51 44% 3 — —
Omari Hutchinson M 88 6.90 — 1 — 29 25% 1 — —
M. Gibbs-White M 89 10.00 3 — 5 30 23% 2 — —
Dilane Bakwa M 45 6.50 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
Chris Wood F 76 6.50 — — 1 13 8% — — —
Igor Jesus F 51 6.60 1 — — 12 11% 3 — —
Jair D 54 6.60 — — — 32 28% — — —
Morato D 8 6.30 — — — 9 9% — — —
Nicolás Domínguez M 7 — — 1 — 10 10% 2 — —
Ryan Yates M 20 6.90 — 1 — 7 5% — — —
Burnley Burnley — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 5.20 — — — 45 33% — — —
Quilindschy Hartman D 96 6.60 — 1 — 51 39% 4 — —
Maxime Estève D 96 6.20 — — — 41 34% 4 — —
D 96 6.30 — — — 48 42% — — —
K. Walker D 96 6.30 — — — 50 44% 1 1 —
Florentino Luís M 83 6.00 — — — 34 30% 5 1 —
James Ward-Prowse M 96 6.20 — — 1 63 54% — — —
Jaidon Anthony M 83 6.20 — — — 31 24% — — —
Lesley Ugochukwu M 76 6.20 — — — 17 15% 1 — —
M. Edwards M 64 6.70 — — — 18 15% 3 — —
Z. Flemming F 84 7.30 1 — 1 11 6% 1 — —
Armando Broja F 12 6.50 — — — 3 3% — — —
Josh Laurent M 13 6.70 — — — 7 4% 2 — —
Loum Tchaouna F 13 6.50 — — — 11 8% — — —
Lyle Foster F 32 6.00 — — 1 10 9% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 25% to a draw, and 14% to an Burnley win.