Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley — pre-match prediction — Premier League — April 19, 2026

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Premier League · Regular Season - 33 April 19, 2026 15:00 City Ground, Nottingham

Nottingham Forest

#18 · 6 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Burnley

✓Model correct — prediction Nottingham Forest

M. Gibbs-White 62'

M. Gibbs-White (ast. O. Hutchinson) 69'

M. Gibbs-White (ast. R. Yates) 77'

Igor Jesus (ast. N. Dominguez) 90'+8

45'+2 (ast. Q. Hartman) Z. Flemming

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 60% win probability (draw 25%, Burnley 14%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Burnley.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.00

Actual xG

0.36

Saves

52%

Possession

48%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

↕ Murillo / Cunha

42'

45'+2

ast. Q. Hartman · Z. Flemming⚽

↕ D. Bakwa / Igor Jesus

46'

⚽M. Gibbs-White

62'

64'

L. Foster / M. Edwards ↕

⚽M. Gibbs-White · ast. O. Hutchinson

69'

75'

Florentino

76'

J. Bruun Larsen / L. Ugochukwu ↕

↕ C. Wood / R. Yates

76'

⚽M. Gibbs-White · ast. R. Yates

77'

80'

K. Walker

83'

L. Tchaouna / J. Anthony ↕

84'

J. Laurent / Florentino ↕

84'

A. Broja / Z. Flemming ↕

↕ O. Hutchinson / Morato

88'

↕ M. Gibbs-White / N. Dominguez

89'

⚽Igor Jesus · ast. N. Dominguez

90'+8

Pre-match prediction

60.14%

Nottingham ←

25.03%

14.83%

Burnley

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest) 60.14% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Nottingham

1.76

1.00

-0.76

Burnley

0.80

0.36

-0.44

Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.00 vs 0.36). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	8	21
2	Arsenal	8	21
3	Brighton	8	16
4	Liverpool	8	15
5	Chelsea	8	13
6	Brentford	8	11
7	Leeds	8	11
8	Newcastle	8	11
9	Aston Villa	8	11
10	Hull City	8	10
11	Everton	8	10
12	Ipswich	8	10
13	Bournemouth	8	9
14	Tottenham	8	9
15	Fulham	8	8
16	Manchester United	8	7
17	Crystal Palace	8	7
18	Nottingham Forest	8	6
19	Coventry	8	6
20	Sunderland	8	5

Lineups

Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1

G 6.60

N. Williams D 7.50

Murillo 42' D 7.20

N. Milenković D 5.90

O. Aina D 6.30

E. Anderson M 7.30

I. Sangaré M 7.30

O. Hutchinson 1 👟 88' M 6.90

M. Gibbs-White 3 ⚽ 89' M 10.00

D. Bakwa 45' M 6.50

C. Wood 76' F 6.50

Bench

Igor Jesus 1 ⚽ 51' F 6.60

Jair 54' D 6.60

J. McAtee M

Morato 8' D 6.30

N. Domínguez 1 👟 7' M

R. Yates 1 👟 20' M 6.90

T. Awoniyi F

Burnley 4-2-3-1

G 5.20

Q. Hartman 1 👟 D 6.60

M. Estève D 6.20

D 6.30

K. Walker D 6.30

Florentino 83' M 6.00

J. Ward-Prowse M 6.20

J. Anthony 83' M 6.20

L. Ugochukwu 76' M 6.20

M. Edwards 64' M 6.70

Z. Flemming 1 ⚽ 84' F 7.30

Bench

A. Broja 12' F 6.50

Bashir Humphreys D

J. Laurent 13' M 6.70

L. Foster 32' F 6.00

L. Tchaouna 13' F 6.50

Best on the pitch

M. Gibbs-White

M · Nottingham

10.00

3 ⚽

5 shots · 30 pass

N. Williams

D · Nottingham

7.50

1 shots · 44 pass

E. Anderson

M · Nottingham

7.30

· 76 pass

I. Sangaré

M · Nottingham

7.30

· 51 pass

Z. Flemming

F · Burnley

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 11 pass

Murillo

D · Nottingham

7.20

· 31 pass

Nottingham Forest — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	96	6.60	—	—	—	20	13%	—	—	—
N. Williams	D	96	7.50	—	—	1	44	35%	2	—	—
Murillo	D	42	7.20	—	—	—	31	27%	3	—	—
N. Milenković	D	96	5.90	—	—	—	45	39%	—	—	—
O. Aina	D	96	6.30	—	—	—	50	42%	1	—	—
E. Anderson	M	96	7.30	—	—	—	76	57%	3	—	—
I. Sangaré	M	96	7.30	—	—	—	51	44%	3	—	—
O. Hutchinson	M	88	6.90	—	1	—	29	25%	1	—	—
M. Gibbs-White	M	89	10.00	3	—	5	30	23%	2	—	—
D. Bakwa	M	45	6.50	—	—	—	12	10%	1	—	—
C. Wood	F	76	6.50	—	—	1	13	8%	—	—	—
Igor Jesus	F	51	6.60	1	—	—	12	11%	3	—	—
Jair	D	54	6.60	—	—	—	32	28%	—	—	—
Morato	D	8	6.30	—	—	—	9	9%	—	—	—
N. Domínguez	M	7	—	—	1	—	10	10%	2	—	—
R. Yates	M	20	6.90	—	1	—	7	5%	—	—	—

Burnley — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	96	5.20	—	—	—	45	33%	—	—	—
Q. Hartman	D	96	6.60	—	1	—	51	39%	4	—	—
M. Estève	D	96	6.20	—	—	—	41	34%	4	—	—
	D	96	6.30	—	—	—	48	42%	—	—	—
K. Walker	D	96	6.30	—	—	—	50	44%	1	1	—
Florentino	M	83	6.00	—	—	—	34	30%	5	1	—
J. Ward-Prowse	M	96	6.20	—	—	1	63	54%	—	—	—
J. Anthony	M	83	6.20	—	—	—	31	24%	—	—	—
L. Ugochukwu	M	76	6.20	—	—	—	17	15%	1	—	—
M. Edwards	M	64	6.70	—	—	—	18	15%	3	—	—
Z. Flemming	F	84	7.30	1	—	1	11	6%	1	—	—
A. Broja	F	12	6.50	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—
J. Laurent	M	13	6.70	—	—	—	7	4%	2	—	—
L. Foster	F	32	6.00	—	—	1	10	9%	1	—	—
L. Tchaouna	F	13	6.50	—	—	—	11	8%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?

The final score was Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley.

What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?

The model assigned 60% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 25% to a draw, and 14% to an Burnley win.