✓Model correct — prediction Nottingham Forest
M. Gibbs-White
62'
M. Gibbs-White
(ast. O. Hutchinson)
69'
M. Gibbs-White
(ast. R. Yates)
77'
Igor Jesus
(ast. N. Dominguez)
90'+8
45'+2
(ast. Q. Hartman)
Z. Flemming
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 60% win probability (draw 25%, Burnley 14%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley. In 1 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Burnley.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
3
3
Shots on target
3
1.00
Actual xG
0.36
2
Saves
0
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
4
21
Tackles
22
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Murillo
/ Cunha
42'
45'+2
ast. Q. Hartman ·
Z. Flemming⚽
D. Bakwa
/ Igor Jesus
46'
⚽M. Gibbs-White
62'
64'
L. Foster
/
M. Edwards
⚽M. Gibbs-White
· ast. O. Hutchinson
69'
75'
Florentino
76'
J. Bruun Larsen
/
L. Ugochukwu
C. Wood
/ R. Yates
76'
⚽M. Gibbs-White
· ast. R. Yates
77'
80'
K. Walker
83'
L. Tchaouna
/
J. Anthony
84'
J. Laurent
/
Florentino
84'
A. Broja
/
Z. Flemming
O. Hutchinson
/ Morato
88'
M. Gibbs-White
/ N. Dominguez
89'
⚽Igor Jesus
· ast. N. Dominguez
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
60.14%
Nottingham ←
25.03%
X
14.83%
Burnley
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest)
60.14%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.76
1.00
-0.76
0.80
0.36
-0.44
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.00 vs 0.36).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
26
G
3
N. Williams
D
N. Williams
D
5
Murillo
42'
D
31
N. Milenković
D
N. Milenković
D
34
O. Aina
D
8
Elliot Anderson
M
Elliot Anderson
M
6
I. Sangaré
M
I. Sangaré
M
21
Omari Hutchinson
1 👟
88'
M
Omari Hutchinson
1 👟
88'
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
3 ⚽
89'
M
M. Gibbs-White
3 ⚽
89'
M
29
Dilane Bakwa
45'
M
Dilane Bakwa
45'
M
11
C. Wood
76'
F
C. Wood
76'
F
Bench
19
Igor Jesus
1 ⚽
51'
F
Igor Jesus
1 ⚽
51'
F
23
Jair
54'
D
Jair
54'
D
24
James McAtee
M
James McAtee
M
4
Morato
8'
D
Morato
8'
D
16
Nicolás Domínguez
1 👟
7'
M
Nicolás Domínguez
1 👟
7'
M
22
Ryan Yates
1 👟
20'
M
Ryan Yates
1 👟
20'
M
9
Taiwo Awoniyi
F
Taiwo Awoniyi
F
1
G
3
Quilindschy Hartman
1 👟
D
Quilindschy Hartman
1 👟
D
5
Maxime Estève
D
Maxime Estève
D
18
D
2
K. Walker
D
K. Walker
D
16
Florentino Luís
83'
M
Florentino Luís
83'
M
20
James Ward-Prowse
M
James Ward-Prowse
M
11
Jaidon Anthony
83'
M
Jaidon Anthony
83'
M
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
76'
M
Lesley Ugochukwu
76'
M
10
Marcus Edwards
64'
M
Marcus Edwards
64'
M
19
Z. Flemming
1 ⚽
84'
F
Z. Flemming
1 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
27
Armando Broja
12'
F
12
Bashir Humphreys
D
Bashir Humphreys
D
29
J. Laurent
13'
M
J. Laurent
13'
M
17
Loum Tchaouna
13'
F
Loum Tchaouna
13'
F
9
Lyle Foster
32'
F
Lyle Foster
32'
F
Best on the pitch
M. Gibbs-White
M · Nottingham
10.00
3 ⚽
5 shots
· 30 pass
N. Williams
D · Nottingham
7.50
1 shots
· 44 pass
Z. Flemming
F · Burnley
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 11 pass
Elliot Anderson
M · Nottingham
7.30
· 76 pass
I. Sangaré
M · Nottingham
7.30
· 51 pass
Murillo
D · Nottingham
7.20
· 31 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| N. Williams | D | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 42 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 96 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | — | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 76 | 57% | 3 | — | — |
| I. Sangaré | M | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 44% | 3 | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 88 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 29 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 89 | 10.00 | 3 | — | 5 | 30 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Dilane Bakwa | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Wood | F | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 51 | 6.60 | 1 | — | — | 12 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| Jair | D | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Morato | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | 10 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| Ryan Yates | M | 20 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
Burnley — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 96 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 33% | — | — | — | |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 96 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 51 | 39% | 4 | — | — |
| Maxime Estève | D | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | 4 | — | — |
| D | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 48 | 42% | — | — | — | |
| K. Walker | D | 96 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 83 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 30% | 5 | 1 | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 96 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 54% | — | — | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Marcus Edwards | M | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Z. Flemming | F | 84 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Lyle Foster | F | 32 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs Burnley?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 25% to a draw, and 14% to an Burnley win.